The Sydney and Melbourne property markets will be the top performing housing markets in 2020 according to Moody Analytics.
Their analysts expect Sydney house prices to jump 7.7 per cent in 2020 and a further 7.6 per cent by 2021.
And they forecast Melbourne house prices to increase by 7 percent in 2020 and another 7.8 percent in 2021.
Corelogic and Moody’s 2019 third quarter housing forecast report has predicted a significant uptick across the east coast capital city residential markets next year, after suffering the largest downturn in 40 years.
Home Value Forecasts: Corelogic-Moody’s
|2020 (Houses)||2020 (Apartments)||2019 (Houses)||2019 (Apartments|
^ % change on previous year: Source: Corelogic, Moody’s Analytics.
The worst is over
“Our long-held baseline forecast—that the trough in the national housing market has occurred—is evident in improving activity in the Sydney and Melbourne markets, where 60 per cent of activity takes place,” said Moody’s Analytics economist Katrina Ell.
The housing market has also been “particularly responsive” to RBA’s rate cuts, which have been closely reflected in the lending rates, Ell added.
“Much of the strength in house prices and construction during the most recent boom was thanks to the decline in interest rates.”
“The RBA has reduced the cash rate by 75 basis points so far this year [with] a further 25-basis point reduction expected for early 2020.
“This could trigger a pickup in the Sydney and Melbourne housing markets that is more aggressive than forecast [and] would likely lead to further household leveraging.”
Sydney has recorded its quickest turnaround in decades, with house prices regaining almost one-third of the value lost during the two-year downturn,
Apartment values began to see an increase as early as June, followed by house values in July.
Sydney house prices could increase by close to 8% next year, meaning they will make up much of the ground they lost during the downturn over the next year or two.
As always the markets will be fragmented with different segments performing differently.
Ell says the recovery in the greater Melbourne area is broad-based but led by a notable uptick in the inner east.
“In 2020, a strong recovery is predicted for most suburbs, though values in the west and south east suburbs are likely to grow at a relatively weaker pace.”
After a relatively healthy growth last year, Brisbane house values are experiencing a mild downturn at present but Moody’s forecasts just 2 per cent in 2020, dragged down by the weakness in South Brisbane housing values.
Moody’s suggests that an oversupply of apartments in Brisbane has stunted their capital growth in the past, but this trend is expected to correct itself in 2020-21 with values predicted to grow by 5.4 per cent next year.
Interestingly a few weeks back BIS Oxford Economics made a big call, suggesting that the median Brisbane house price could rise by 20% or by $113,000, over the next three years.
Hobart property forecast for 2020
Hobart’s recent property boom saw it as the best performing property market for the last few years, but this is now over with Moody’s analysts projecting a market correction in 2020 and 2021.
Canberra property forecast for 2020
The housing market in Australia’s capital has continued to slow, with modest growth expected for 2020 and 2021.
Perth property forecast for 2020
House values in Perth are unlikely to see growth in 2020, as values will likely decline 7.8 per cent in 2019, followed by a further 0.7 per cent decline in 2020.
Apartments in Perth are likely to see an 8.6 per cent fall in 2019, and a further 0.8 per cent in 2020.
Moody’s anticipates that houses and units in Perth will see growth in 2021.
Adelaide property forecast for 2020
Moodys forecasts a “stable” property market in Adelaide were house prices may rise by 1.4 per cent in 2020, followed by a rise of 5.1 per cent in 2021.
Darwin property forecast 2020
Moody’s highlighted that Darwin dwelling prices has steadily plummeted since 2014, and suggest this downward trend will continue into 2020, but expect an uptick expected for 2021.
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