Key takeaways
Australian housing values moved through the ninth month of recovery with CoreLogic’s national Home Value Index (HVI) rising 0.6% in November.
Sydney home values increased another 0.3% in November, taking the cumulative recovery since the January 23 trough to 11.9%.
The median house price in Australia’s combined capital cities is now $931,762 .
The median unit price in Australia’s capital cities is $649,350.
The median dwelling value in Australia’s combined regional areas is $602,645
But of course, there are markets within markets, so we detail the median prices for each capital city in this article.
Despite all the predictions of property Armageddon due to rising interest rates our property markets turned the corner early this year with all major research houses reporting higher median prices around Australia for eight months in a row.
Despite a continuing conveyor belt of negative sentiment in the media, buyer sentiment has changed with early signs of FOMO (Fear of Missing Out) as there is limited "good" stock on the market.
In fact three capitals have seen dwelling values rise by more than 10% over the first 10 months of the year.
At the same time, seller confidence has increased with more properties hitting the market for sale.
Even Australia's big banks have done a backflip on their house price forecasts for the rest of the year and next, and it seems that the property bears have gone back into their caves to hibernate.
It is now clear that our housing market has defied the many doomsday forecasts made a year ago and have moved through the bottom of the cyclical downturn early in 2023 experiencing a V Shaped recovery making the 2022 downturn one of the sharpest but shortest ones in history.
The price upturn is now firmly entrenched with home prices hitting fresh record highs in many markets in October.
CoreLogic’s national Home Value Index (HVI) rose a further 0.6% in November down from its 0.9% rise in October and 0.7% rise in September.
Despite the slowdown, the national HVI reached a new record high in November.
After falling -7.5% from a peak in April 2022 to a trough in January 2023, housing values have bounced 8.3% higher over the past 10 months, demonstrating a clear ‘V’ shaped
Regional markets continue to lag their capital city counterparts, with regional Victoria remaining the softest of the rest of the state regions, with housing values holding virtually flat (-0.2%) over the rolling quarter, holding -7.2% below the May 2022 peak.
Change in dwelling values around Australia
| City | Month | Quarter | Annual | Total return | Median value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sydney | 0.3% | 1.8% | 10.2% | 13.4% | $1,125,533 |
| Melbourne | -0.1% | 0.6% | 3.0% | 6.4% | $779,914 |
| Brisbane | 1.3% | 3.9% | 10.7% | 15.4% | $779,270 |
| Adelaide | 1.2% | 3.9% | 7.6% | 11.9% | $704,267 |
| Perth | 1.9% | 5.4% | 13.5% | 18.9% | $646,520 |
| Hobart | -0.1% | 0.1% | -3.0% | 1.2% | $656,568 |
| Darwin | -0.3% | -0.7% | -1.5% | 4.7% | $496,792 |
| Canberra | 0.5% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 3.7% | $842,677 |
| Combined capitals | 0.6% | 2.2% | 8.2% | 12.0% | $827,659 |
| Combined regional | 0.6% | 1.8% | 3.4% | 7.9% | $602,645 |
| National | 0.6% | 2.1% | 7.0% | 11.0% | $753,654 |
Source: CoreLogic 1st December 2023
- The median dwelling price for Australia now sits at $753,654
- The median dwelling price for our combined capital cities now sits at $827,659
- The median dwelling price for our combined regional towns sits at $602,645
Current Australian house price trends
Of course, there is not one property market around Australia as the following chart clearly shows.
Change in dwelling values to the end of November 2023
Slower growth conditions across the upper quartile of Sydney and Melbourne have become increasingly prominent, with the most expensive quarter of the market across both cities now recording the lowest rate of growth on a monthly and rolling quarterly basis.
Tim Lawless of Corelogic explains:
“The more expensive end of the market tends to lead the cycles in these cities.
As borrowing capacity reduces, we may be seeing more demand deflected towards lower housing price points, with the broad middle of the market now recording the strongest rate of growth in Sydney and Melbourne."
What you need to know about median house prices
We’ve written a detailed article explaining why not to trust median property prices here.
However, understanding median house prices can be useful because they give investors a rough guide about the locations they can afford.Yet they should never be considered to be the Holy Grail of property data, because of the tendency for median prices to jump around from quarter to quarter.
They are more a reflection of the properties recently sold in the area rather than what a particular property is worth.
In many locations understanding the median house price is almost worthless because of the variations of the great variation in sale prices for houses, which means the area does not have a homogeneous style of housing.
For example, you could get a significant variation in property value for similar properties when you compare the more desirable locations within a particular suburb, such as a property having water views with ones that are less desirable such as on a busy road or even on a secondary main road or too near the train or with views of the service station across the street.
As you can see, if a suburb has housing of variable quality, the median house price is not very useful because some properties are simply more valuable than others.
However, if a suburb has very similar housing, such as renovated older homes on large blocks or a newer suburb where most of its housing stock was built over a few years, the median house price would be more relevant.
Melbourne's median property price
Here is the latest data on the median property prices for Melbourne.
| Property | Median price | Δ MoM | Δ QoQ | Δ Annual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All dwellings | $779,914 | -0.1% | 0.6% | 3.0% |
| Capital city houses | $943,725 | 0.0% | 0.7% | 3.3% |
| Capital city units | $610,490 | -0.3% | 0.2% | 2.5% |
| Regional dwellings | $565,514 | 0.2% | 0.7% | -2.2% |
Source: CoreLogic, 1st December 2023
Melbourne's values have risen 4.5% since bottoming out in January 2023.
The Melbourne housing market has not performed as strongly as some other capitals this year.
However in October Melbourne dwelling prices dropped -0.1%, (after rising 0.5% in October) with a lack of good properties on the market increasing competition among potential buyers.
The constrained level of properties available for sale has also resulted in strong auction clearance rates and rising prices for both houses and apartments.
During the boom of 2020-21 Melbourne house values recorded a much larger upswing than units, rising almost 21% through the growth cycle compared to a lower 10.5% gain across the unit market but now affordability constraints are making more buyers trade backyards for balconies and courtyards and Melbourne apartment values grew 1.4% over the month.
There is currently a clear flight to quality properties in Melbourne, with A-grade homes and "investment grade" properties still in short supply for the prevailing demand, but B Grade properties are taking longer to sell and informed buyers are avoiding C Grade properties.
Moving forward strong immigration and a lack of supply of properties will help keep pushing Melbourne property prices up.
Sydney's median property price
Here is the latest data on the median property prices for Sydney.
| Property | Median price | Δ MoM | Δ QoQ | Δ Annual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All Capital city dwellings | $1,125,533 | 0.3% | 1.8% | 10.2% |
| Capital city houses | $1,397,366 | 0.3% | 2.0% | 11.5% |
| Capital city units | $836,220 | 0.3% | 1.3% | 7.1% |
| Regional dwellings | $709,661 | 0.5% | 1.4% | 1.4% |
Source: CoreLogic, 1st December 2023
In 2020-21 Sydney house prices led the nationwide property boom, with Sydney median prices soaring to new highs.
But after rising 27.2% Sydney home values fell 12.4% since peaking in January 2022 but are now up 11.9% from their trough earlier this year (January 2023.)
Sydney led this current property upturn, with fewer homes on the market at a time of increasing buyer demand underpinning the growth spurt.
Positive demand drivers stemming from the shortages in rental supply and rebound in international migration are also playing a part.
The Sydney auction market has remained strong throughout the year suggesting sale prices will continue to remain firm.
Moving forward, the various sectors of the Sydney property markets will be fragmented, which is a more “normal” property market.
- Also read:Latest property price forecasts for 2024 revealed. What’s ahead in our housing markets in the next year or two?
- Also read:Sydney property market forecast for 2024
- Also read:Boom to bust: What makes property prices rise and fall
- Also read:This week’s Australian Property Market Update – Latest Data, State by State November 28th, 2023
- Also read:The Boom and Bust of our Property Cycles: A Journey Through the Investor’s Mind
Brisbane's median property price
Here is the latest data on the median property prices for Brisbane.
| Property | Median price | Δ MoM | Δ QoQ | Δ Annual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All Capital city dwellings | $779,270 | 1.3% | 3.9% | 10.7% |
| Capital city houses | $870,526 | 1.4% | 4.1% | 10.6% |
| Capital city units | $552,332 | 1.0% | 3.1% | 11.3% |
| Regional dwellings | $605,256 | 0.8% | 2.5% | 7.2% |
Source: CoreLogic, 1st December 2023
Brisbane's housing market skyrocketed during the pandemic with 45.3% trough to peak growth.
Since peaking in May 2022 Brisbane dwelling values fell 8.9% and have risen 12.2% since bottoming out in January 2023.
Our on-the-ground experience at Metropole Brisbane is that there is strong demand from both home buyers and property investors for A-grade homes and investment-grade properties.
New supply is struggling to keep up with the rising demand, further supporting rising home values.
Adelaide's median property price
Here is the latest data on the median property prices for Adelaide.
| Property | Median price Δ | MoM Δ | QoQ Δ | Annual Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All Capital city dwellings | $704,267 | 1.2% | 3.9% | 7.6% |
| Capital city houses | $756,989 | 1.3% | 3.9% | 7.4% |
| Capital city units | $479,428 | 0.9% | 4.0% | 8.8% |
| Regional dwellings | $387,211 | 1.0% | 1.4% | 10.1% |
Source: CoreLogic, 1st December 2023
The Adelaide property market was a little slower to boom than the east coast capital cities but once it got going it has remained one of the best-performing capital city property markets assisted by its relative affordability.
CoreLogic data shows Adelaide values recorded a COVID-19 "trough to peak" growth of 41.1 per cent.
After peaking in August 2022, Adelaide property values dropped 1.7% but have now risen again by 8.7% since their March 2023 trough.
The comparative affordability of the city’s homes has seen prices holding up better as interest rates have risen.
Low stock levels are also helping to insulate home values, with increased competition among potential buyers
The strong auction clearance rates have been another sign of the strength and depth of the Adelaide property market.
Perth's median property price
Here is the latest data on the median property prices for Perth.
| Property | Median price Δ | Δ MoM | Δ QoQ | Δ Annual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All Capital city dwellings | $646,520 | 1.9% | 5.4% | 13.5% |
| Capital city houses | $676,910 | 2.0% | 5.5% | 13.8% |
| Capital city units | $457,296 | 1.6% | 4.3% | 10.9% |
| Regional dwellings | $454,986 | 1.3% | 3.4% | 7.9% |
Source: CoreLogic, 1st December 2023
Perth housing values remained flat for most of the last decade.
After rising 28.4% over the Covid period, Perth dwelling values only fell 0.6% since peaking in June 2022 and have risen 13.7% since bottoming out in September 2022.
However, I would avoid investing in Perth as the Western Australian economy is too dependent on a couple of industries – especially the mining industry and much of this is dependent on China, and this has a direct knock-on effect on WA house prices.
The mining and energy companies are large employers in Perth. This means that the Perth property market is susceptible to a downturn in mining.
Apart from the large energy companies, most corporate head offices are located in the eastern capital cities. Management roles in head offices tend to attract higher salaries which, to some extent, support/underpin property prices.
Further, the larger east coast capital cities have significantly larger the population with more diverse the employment opportunities which in general attract higher salaries.
Hobart's median property price
Here is the latest data on the median property prices for Hobart.
| Property | Median price | Δ MoM | Δ QoQ | Δ Annual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All Capital city dwellings | $656,568 | -0.1% | 0.1% | -3.0% |
| Capital city houses | $702,722 | -0.3% | 0.2% | -3.3% |
| Capital city units | $526,961 | 0.8% | -0.5% | -1.8% |
| Regional dwellings | $510,013 | 0.3% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
Source: CoreLogic, 1st December 2023
Hobart was the darling of speculative property investors and the best-performing property market in 2017- 2018
After rising 45% over the Covid period, Hobart dwelling values fell 11.8% after peaking in March 2022 but have now risen by 0.8% after its recent trough in March 2023.
Hobart has been an underperformer for most of this year and is likely to remain so.
Darwin's median property price
Here is the latest data on the median property prices for Darwin.
| Property | Median price Δ | Δ MoM | Δ QoQ | Δ Annual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All Capital city dwellings | $496,792 | -0.3% | -0.7% | -1.5% |
| Capital city houses | $572,504 | 0.5% | -0.9% | -2.0% |
| Capital city units | $380,761 | 0.2% | -0.2% | -0.3% |
| Regional dwellings | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a |
Source: CoreLogic, 1st December 2023
Darwin remains the most affordable city to purchase a house.
The city’s famously relaxed and laid-back lifestyle and the low-density population were a bonus in the post-pandemic era and drove interest in Darwin property.
After rising 27.3% over the Covid period, Darwin dwelling fell 5.2% after peaking in August 2022 and is now up by 1.8% since bottoming out in May 2023.
Canberra's median property price
Here is the latest data on the median property prices for Canberra.
| Property | Median price | Δ MoM | Δ QoQ | Δ Annual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All Capital city dwellings | $842,677 | 0.5% | 1.1% | -0.3% |
| Capital city houses | $965,378 | 0.5% | 1.4% | -0.2% |
| Capital city units | $590,425 | 0.3% | 0.1% | -0.5% |
| Regional dwellings | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a |
Source: CoreLogic, 1st December 2023
Canberra’s property market has long been a “quiet achiever” with median house prices recording 38.3% growth over the recent property boom.
A number of factors were driving house price increases in Canberra and the wider ACT including rising interest from international and interstate investors and tight land releases among others.
After rising 39.8% over the Covid period, Canberra's dwelling values fell 7.8% since peaking in May 2022 and are now up by only 1.6% since their January 2023 trough.
The strong auction clearance rates throughout 2022 were a sign of the strength of the Canberra property market last year, but this earlier year auction clearance rates in Canberra were quite subdued, but this has picked up recently.
