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By Michael Yardney
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Latest property price forecasts for 2024 revealed. What’s ahead in our housing markets in the next year or two?

key takeaways

Key takeaways

Currently Australia’s housing is so undersupplied that I've rarely encountered a supply-demand inflection point like this that requires such attention. And it’s only going to get worse.

Sure there are unknowns and risks ahead, but there are also five certainties for our housing markets:
1. Inflation will stick around a little longer than the RBA would like
2. Interest rates will eventually fall
3. The scarcity of dwellings for both purchase and rent will not go away any time soon.
4. Rents will keep rising
5. Astoundingly good demographics and strong population growth will keep fuelling demand for housing.

This creates a window of opportunity before falling interest rates create a property market reset.

Inflation has now peaked and it's likely so have interest rates, and in due course consumer confidence will return and the markets will continue their upward trajectory.

Here are some trends to watch for in 2024:-
1. The recovery phase of the property market cycle will continue.
2. Interest rate fall eventually but now this may not happen till much later in the year or early next year.
3. Our property markets will become more fragmented.
4. Strong migration will continue to underpin our housing markets.
5. Rents will keep rising strongly.
6. Strategic investors will keep investing in the property market.
7. Living in the right neighbourhood will be more important than ever.
8. Our economy will remain robust, and employment will keep growing.

  • What's the outlook for the Australian property markets for the rest of 2024? 
  • Have interest rates really peaked now and when will they start coming down or will the RBA raise rates again in 2024?
  • Will affordability issues cause a round of distressed sales and prices to fall or even a property market crash in 2024? 

These are common questions people are asking now that the housing markets have experienced 13 months of rising values.

It is now clear that our housing market has defied the many doomsday forecasts and has moved through the bottom of the cyclical downturn early in 2023 experiencing a V-shaped recovery making the 2022 downturn one of the sharpest but shortest ones in history.

Change In Dwelling Values To End May

The price upturn is now firmly entrenched, rising for 15 months in a row and with home prices hitting fresh record highs in many markets .

Meanwhile, auction clearance rates are delivering consistent results showing the depth of our major capital city housing markets and the year has started with increasing buyer sentiment – in fact some FOMO (fear of missing out) is creeping in as house prices reach new peaks.

Auction results and consumer sentiment have both shown a historically strong relationship with future housing trends.

Of course, each state is at its own stage of the property cycle and within each capital city there are multiple markets.

Annual Change In House Prices

While some regional areas outperformed the capital cities in 2022, capital city property markets have led the price upturn in 2023 and regional areas had slower growth.

Rolling 3 Month Change In Dwelling Values Combined Capitals Vs Combined Regionals

And after underperforming throughout the pandemic period, unit prices recorded stronger growth for much of 2023 and are still growing strongly this year as affordability constraints will mean more Australians trade backyards for balconies and courtyards.

Houses vs units

Here's what the big four banks forecasting for property prices in 2024

 

  • ANZ forecasts capital city housing prices to rise 6-7% in 2024, 5-6% in 2025 and around 5% in 2026. Brisbane, Perth and Adelaide are likely to outperform other cities due to the possibility of a longer running shortage of available homes. An expected a lift in household incomes (helped first by fiscal policy) will support prices from late 2024 onwards.

Anz House Price Forecast

 

  • CBA expects capital city prices to lift 5 per cent, with small variations across the cities. Brisbane is tipped for 6 per cent growth, Melbourne and Perth for 5 per cent, Sydney for 4 per cent and Adelaide for 1 per cent.
  • NAB predicts prices across the capitals to rise an average of 5.4 per cent. Prices are expected to lift 6.5 per cent in Brisbane, 6.2 per cent in Perth and Adelaide, 5.5 per cent in Melbourne and 5 per cent in Sydney. Hobart values are expected to end the year flat.
  • Westpac forecasts 6 per cent growth across the combined capitals. Perth is pencilled in for the highest growth at 10 per cent, followed by Brisbane at 8 per cent, Sydney at 6, Adelaide at 4 and Melbourne at 3

You can always beat the averages.

While it’s likely that property price growth will be a little lower in 2024 than it was last year, the good news is that if you don’t like the outlook for what property will do on a national level, you can always beat it by investing in the right property in the right location.

Now by that, I don’t mean look for the next hotspot.

I mean buying quality properties in locations that will outperform in the long term such as gentrifying suburbs.

You see...property offers countless opportunities to improve your results through your own time, skills and knowledge – so you don’t need to settle for average.

And there’s more to it than just location. You can add value through refurbishment, or redevelopment.

Oxford Economics recently made the following forecasts of where house prices will be in 3 years time. 

Price Forecast

The latest housing market stats

Dwelling values have remained robust as CoreLogic's national Home Value Index rose 0.6% in February, the strongest monthly gain since October last year.

Here are the latest stats provided by CoreLogic for property price changes around Australia:

City Month Quarter Annual Total return Median value
Sydney 0.6% 1.2% 7.4% 10.6% $1,156,020
Melbourne 0.1% -0.2% 1.8% 5.5% $780,437
Brisbane 1.4% 3.9% 16.3% 21.0% $843,231
Adelaide 1.8% 4.3% 14.4% 19.0% $757,448
Perth 2.0% 6.1% 22.0% 27.8% $736,649
Hobart -0.5% 0.3% -0.1% 3.9% $655,170
Darwin -0.3% 1.9% 3.5% 10.3% $502,120
Canberra 0.5% 0.7% 2.0% 6.1% $840,100
Combined capitals 0.8% 1.9% 8.8% 12.7% $864,780
Combined regional 0.6% 2.0% 6.8% 11.6% $626,888
National 0.8% 1.9% 8.3% 12.5% $785,556

Source: CoreLogic 1st June 2024

In fact, all the research houses reported higher dwelling prices in March 2024:

  • Australian home values continued to trend higher in May with CoreLogic’s national Home Value Index (HVI) rising 0.8% in May, the 16th consecutive month of growth and the largest monthly gain since October last year.
  • PropTrack reported that national home prices lifted 0.3% to hit a new record in May. Prices are now 6.68% above May 2023 levels and up 9.58% from their December 2022 low.
  • Dr Andrew Wilson’s My Housing Market reported that national housing markets have continued to record steady prices growth generally in May, with the late autumn selling season providing overall positive outcomes for most sellers. The national capital city median house price again increased by 0.3% to $1,134,494 over the May quarter compared to the April quarter.

We also keep track of “Asking Prices” as these are a good leading indicator for the property market because they reflect the sentiment of sellers and their expectations for the future value of their homes.

Sydney Property Asking Prices

Property type Price ($) Weekly Change Monthly Change % Annual % change
All Houses 1,941,915 17.206 0.8% 8.0%
All Units 812,414 6.886 1.6% 5.7%
Combined 1,486,238 12.649 1.0% 7.1%

Source: SQM Research, June 2024

Melbourne Property Asking Prices

Property type Price ($) Weekly Change Monthly Change % Annual % change
All Houses 1,262,080 1.010 0.5% 6.6%
All Units 606,128 2.672 -0.1% 2.4%
Combined 1,056,944 1.329 0.4% 5.6%

Source: SQM Research, June 2024

Brisbane Property Asking Prices

Property type Price ($) Weekly Change Monthly Change % Annual % change
All Houses 1,105,214 0.573 0.9% 14.2%
All Units 619,944 1.856 2.1% 19.6%
Combined 984,286 0.811 1.0% 14.9%

Source: SQM Research, May 2024

Perth Property Asking Prices

Property type Price ($) Weekly Change Monthly Change % Annual % change
All Houses 1,002,896 8.334 1.8% 19.5%
All Units 525,096 2.604 2.2% 19.2%
Combined 878,567 6.753 1.8% 19.3%

Source: SQM Research, June 2024

Adelaide Property Asking Prices

Property type Price ($) Weekly Change Monthly Change % Annual % change
All Houses 918,612 9.137 1.4% 16.6%
All Units 465,283 -2.783 0.6% 10.7%
Combined 837,293 6.991 1.3% 15.9%

Source: SQM Research, June 2024

Canberra Property Asking Prices

Property type Price ($) Weekly Change Monthly Change % Annual % change
All Houses 1,229,715 10.772 2.7% 17.4%
All Units 605,463 0.399 1.6% 2.5%
Combined 1,002,560 6.554 2.4% 13.5%

Source: SQM Research, June 2024

Darwin Property Asking Prices

Property type Price ($) Weekly Change Monthly Change % Annual % change
All Houses 662,272 7.128 -0.2% -2.4%
All Units 372,874 0.126 1.1% -1.6%
Combined 548,695 4.349 0.2% -2.2%

Source: SQM Research, June 2024

Hobart Property Asking Prices

Property type Price ($) Weekly Change Monthly Change % Annual % change
All Houses 788,828 2.444 0.4% 0.4%
All Units 515,444 -15.990 -2.0% -0.3%
Combined 747,639 -0.379 0.2% 0.2%

Source: SQM Research, June 2024

National Property Asking Prices

Property type Price ($) Weekly Change Monthly Change % Annual % change
All Houses 934,061 1.929 1.6% 9.4%
All Units 547,477 -4.049 0.7% 7.1%
Combined 851,293 0.570 1.4% 9.0%

Source: SQM Research, June 2024

Capital Cities Property Asking Prices

Property type Price ($) Weekly Change Monthly Change % Annual % change
All Houses 1,394,639 12.595 1.1% 9.6%
All Units 688,106 6.661 1.9% 6.9%
Combined 1,186,677 10.629 1.2% 8.9%

Source: SQM Research, June 2024

The fundamentals of what drives Australian property prices

Property prices are driven by a combination of factors, and as we move through property cycles, they all come together to influence whether property values rise or fall.

In the medium term, property values will be linked to a range of factors that tend to boil down to two basic economic concepts: consumer confidence and supply and demand.

Understanding how these concepts work together to affect real estate is crucial to one’s understanding of what’s ahead for our housing markets.

On the other hand, if you look at what's ahead for housing markets over the next decade or two, and take a telescopic view, rather than a microscopic view, the two big factors driving our housing markets will be demographics (how many of us there are, have we want to live and where we want to live) and the wealth of the nation.

But first, let’s dig a bit deeper into the key underlying factors that will be influencing our property markets in the medium term.

Interest Rate2

1. Interest rates/affordability

While many people believe interest rates are a key driver of property values, and that's why there were so many pessimistic property forecasts as interest rates rose through 2022-23, our housing markets showed considerable resilience and kept rising in value despite the 13 interest rate rises the RBA threw at us.

Of course, falling interest rates and the subsequent increased affordability are strong drivers of property price growth, but the reverse isn't true.

House prices are driven by many other factors, not just interest rates.

And while earlier this year Australia's biggest lender, the Commonwealth Bank, forecast 6 interest rate cuts in 2024 and 25 starting in September, it now seems that rates will remain high for longer as inflation remains stubbornly high and our economy and labour markets keep performing better than the RBA would like.

Economists are divided on the timing and number of RBA rate cuts in 2024, with some predicting as many as three, while others are predicting none.

However, the difference between no rate cuts, and up to three rate cuts, has a huge impact on borrowers, particularly for those with large debts compared to their incomes.

Current big four bank cash rate forecasts

17 - 18 June RBA mtg Next RBA move Total no. of cuts in 2024 + 2025
CBA Hold at 4.35% - 0.25% pts in Nov-24 5 cuts to 3.10%
Westpac Hold at 4.35% - 0.25% pts in Nov-24 5 cuts to 3.10%
NAB Hold at 4.35% - 0.25% pts in Nov-24 5 cuts to 3.10%
ANZ Hold at 4.35% - 0.25% pts in Feb-25 3 cuts to 3.60%

2. Supply and demand

Housing supply has a significant influence over house prices in the short term: an undersupply puts pressure on prices to rise while an oversupply does the opposite.

Despite very strong population growth through 2023, we’re just not building enough new dwellings, and this has put pressure on housing supply reflected in low rental vacancy rates and higher house prices.

At the same time, the strong absorption of new listings for sale has kept total listings in the market suppressed, intensifying competition between buyers.

These factors have created a sharp shortage of housing, outweighing the negative impact of rates on prices.

Population Growth Vs Building Completions

And there is no end in sight as building approvals (which are a good indication of future supply) are running at very low levels.

And just because a new apartment complex has been approved, it doesn't mean it will get built.

At the moment very few new complexes are coming out of the ground because it's not financially viable to build them at today's market prices.

Of course, this means future new developments will have to sell at prices considerably higher than today’s market value and this will, in turn, pull up the value of established apartments.

Building Approvals Vs Population Growth

3. Consumer confidence

Consumer confidence is a critical factor affecting the direction of property prices.

We won't make big financial decisions like moving home or buying an investment property unless we feel confident about our economic future and our financial stability.

2023 was a year where consumer confidence was at historic lows because of all the economic and socio-political issues that confronted us.

Consumer Sentiment

I believe that during 2024 consumer confidence will rise as inflation slowly comes under control and we realise interest rates have peaked and are going to eventually fall.

At the same time, the “wealth effect” a very improving economy and rising property values will lead to further consumer confidence and bring home buyers and sellers back into the market.

4. Economic climate

Another key factor that affects the value of the property market is the overall health of the economy.

This is generally measured by economic indicators such as the gross domestic product (GDP), employment data, manufacturing activity, the prices of goods, etc.

Broadly speaking, the economy is strong and the RBA is trying to slow it down to bring inflation under control, but currently, everybody who wants a job can get a job and this will underpin our housing markets even if the economy falters a little moving forward.

5. Population growth

Australia has experienced a record-breaking rate of net overseas migration, estimated to have reached around 500,000 people in the 12 months to September 2023.

While population growth has always been a key driver supporting our property markets, the influx has pushed our supply/demand balance off-kilter and is key to the increase in housing prices and the shortage of rental properties.

Components Of Population Change By Capital City

6. Availability of credit

When the credit (the ability to borrow from the banks) is readily accessible, with lower interest rates and less stringent lending criteria, it tends to stimulate the housing market since more people find themselves able to borrow money to buy homes, leading to increased demand for housing.

On the flip side, when credit is tightened through higher interest rates or stricter lending criteria (as happened when APRA made the banks tighten the purse strings in 2016-7), the effect can be a cooling of the housing market.

Such measures are usually a deliberate policy response to an overheated market, aiming to reduce the risk of a “property bubble” and subsequent crash.

Investor4

7. Investor Sentiment

This sentiment, essentially the collective attitude and outlook of investors towards property markets, can significantly influence both the demand for and the value of real estate.

Investors generally account for around one-third of all property transactions so positive investor sentiment can drive up property prices, especially in sought-after areas.

Conversely, negative investor sentiment, as occurred during the market downturn of 2022, can lead to a decrease in property values.

If investors believe that property prices will stagnate or fall, they may be less inclined to invest, or they might choose to sell off their properties, increasing supply in the market.

8. Government incentives

Government incentives can have both direct and indirect impacts on the real estate sector.

One of the most direct ways government incentives affect property values is through policies aimed at stimulating demand.

For instance, initiatives like the First Home Owner Grant (FHOG) or stamp duty concessions for first-time buyers directly increase buying capacity, leading to greater demand for property.

Another aspect is the development incentives provided by the government to promote specific types of property development, such as high-density housing or urban renewal projects.

These incentives can increase property values in targeted areas by improving infrastructure, accessibility, and community facilities, making them more desirable places to live.

Tax policies and regulations also play a crucial role.

Negative gearing can increase demand for investment properties, pushing up prices.

And every time there is talk about removing negative gearing or amending taxes including land tax, investors shy away from our housing markets.

Property Market

Australian housing market predictions for 2024

The last few years have shown us how hard it is to forecast property trends, and as always there will be headwinds and tailwinds buffeting our property markets.

Currently Australia’s housing is so undersupplied that I've rarely encountered a supply-demand inflection point like this that requires such attention.

And it’s only going to get worse.

Drivers of property price growth in 2024 will include:

  • Continued strong population growth at a time when we are not producing enough supply of new dwellings. This extreme shortfall will exert upward pressure on house prices and rents throughout 2024.
  • I anticipate that interest rates will fall in the second half of 2024 and at some stage next year it is likely APRA will relax its mortgage serviceability buffer. This is currently at 3% and the combination of these factors will increase borrowing capacity.
  • FOMO (fear of missing out) will creep in as buyers realise all the price falls of 2022 have now been made up and the media will keep mentioning new record prices being achieved.

Headwinds:

  • Stretched affordability will remain an issue in 2024, however, buyers will want to get on with their lives and therefore choose townhouses or apartments over homes or move to more affordable suburbs.
  • The RBA wants to lift unemployment to help slow inflation. Financial uncertainty and worries about job security will stop some buyers from making important decisions like buying a home or an investment property.
  • Poor consumer sentiment was a feature of 2023, holding back property buying decisions, and until there is more certainty about our economy and confidence that interest rates have peaked and inflation is under control, it's likely that consumer confidence will remain low in the first half of 2024.

The strongest performers are likely to be Brisbane and Perth, where population growth is expected to outpace supply more than in other cities.

ANZ believes that real wage growth from early 2024 and modest interest rate easing from late 2024 will also support borrowing capacity and prices.

With the increase in value of houses strongly outpacing the apartment market recently, now with the differential in price between units and houses at the highest level on record, and with houses becoming more unaffordable for many, I can see strong capital growth ahead for family-friendly apartments in great neighbourhoods.

Here are ANZ Banks forecasts for for the next few years:-

Anz House Long Range Price Forecast

 

8 economic and property trends to watch out for moving forward

1. The recovery phase of the market will continue in 2024

Property price growth will continue throughout 2024, albeit at a much lower rate and our housing markets will be fragmented as affordability will affect many homebuyers.

2. Interest rates will  fall

Interest rates have most likely peaked,  but are likely to remain higher for longer than many would like as inflation will remain stubbornly higher than the RBA hopes for a little longer.

When interest rates eventually fall, which could be in late 2024 or early 2025, this is likely to encourage greater housing investment and more homebuyers.

3. Our property market will be even more fragmented

Of course, there was really never one Sydney property market or one Melbourne property market.

There are markets within markets – there are houses, apartments, townhouses and villa units located in the outer suburbs, middle ring suburbs, inner suburbs and the CBD, and they're all behaving differently.

But our markets will be much more fragmented moving forward as some demographics struggle with cost-of-living, rent and mortgage cost increases (at a time of low wage growth) more than others.

It will either stop them from getting into the property markets or severely restrict their borrowing capacity which will negatively impact the lower end of the property markets.

Meanwhile, many first-home buyers who borrowed to their full capacity will have difficulty keeping up with their mortgage payments at the time of rising interest rates or when their fixed-rate loans convert to variable rates.

In other words, there will be little impetus for capital growth at the lower end of the property market.

That's why I would only invest in areas where the locals’ income is growing faster than the national average - such as gentrifying suburbs - as locals will have higher disposable incomes and be able to and are likely to be prepared to pay a premium to live in these locations.

Many of these locations are the inner and middle-ring suburbs of our capital cities which are gentrifying as these wealthier cohorts move in.

Migration2

At the same time, I see well-located properties in our capital cities outperforming regional property markets.

In fact our capital cities outperformed regional housing markets over the last year or so.

In the past one of regional Australia's allure was its affordability compared to capital cities.

However, the surge in prices over the COVID lockdowns narrowed the price gap and this diminishing affordability undermines one of the key advantages regional markets had over metropolitan counterparts.

The measure of years to save a 20% deposit for the median regional home on a median regional income has risen from 7.4 years in early 2020 to 9.7 years, as opposed to 10.0 years for capital cities.

Regional Markets Unaffordable

4. Migration

Net overseas migration to Australia will remain strong in 2024, however, the Federal government will lower the rate of temporary migrants coming to Australia.

This will keep driving rental growth as migrants tend to rent.

Only 38% of migrants own a home after being in Australia for five years, yet 71% of migrants own their home after 10 years.

5. Rents will keep rising

There is no end in sight for our rental crisis and rent prices will continue skyrocketing into 2024.

In fact, increased rental demand at a time of very low vacancy rates will see rentals continue to rise throughout the next few years.

Annual Change In Rental Rates To May 2024

6. Strategic investors will keep entering the property market

And they’ll squeeze out first-home buyers.

As rents continue to rise and the share of first-home buyers continues dropping, strategic investors with a realistic long-term focus will return to the market.

Neighbourhood

7. Neighbourhood will be more important than ever

In our post Covid world, people will pay a premium for the ability to work, live and play within a 20-minute drive, bike ride or walk from home.

Many inner suburbs of Australia’s capital cities and parts of their middle suburbs already meet the 20-minute neighbourhood tests, but very few outer suburbs do because there is a lower developmental density, less diversity in its community, and less access to public transport.

And ‘neighbourhood’ is important for property investors too, and here’s why.

In short, it’s all to do with capital growth, and we all know capital growth is critical for investment success, or just to create more stored wealth in the value of your home.

This is key because we know that 80% of a property’s performance is dependent on the location and its neighbourhood – in fact, some locations have even outperformed others by 50-100% over the past decade.

And it’s likely that moving forward, thanks to the current environment, people will place an even greater emphasis on neighbourhood and inner and middle-ring suburbs where more affluent occupants and tenants will be living.

These ‘liveable’ neighbourhoods with close amenities are where capital growth will outperform.

What sets these neighbourhoods apart is the demographics – these locations are generally gentrifying or are lifestyle locations and destination locations that aspirational and affluent people want to live in.

So lifestyle and destination suburbs where there is a wide range of amenities within a 20-minute walk or drive are likely to outperform in the future, fetching premium prices in 2024.

8. Our economy and employment will remain robust

Sure the RBA continues in its efforts to slow down our spending a little in order to bring down inflation.

But despite this our economy will keep growing (albeit a little slower) and the unemployment rate will remain low thanks to the many new jobs created as our economy grows.

Capital Cities

Local Capital Cities Market Predictions for 2024

As we know, there is not one Australian housing market, but markets within those markets, and again within those.

To give a better view of market predictions for the next 12 months in your area, here’s a breakdown of each local capital city’s market predictions for 2024.

Melbourne housing values  lifted 0.23% in May, according to PropTrack reversing the small falls (-0.05%) seen in April.

Prices are up 0.87% year-on-year but remain 3.08% below their March 2022 peak. Melbourne’s recovery is lagging Sydney and Brisbane, where prices fully recovered from 2022’s falls last year.

Prices in Melbourne have regained just under half of their decline, up 2.42% from their January 2023 low.

At Metropole Melbourne, we’re finding that on-the-ground sentiment has changed and strategic investors and homebuyers are accepting that inflation has probably peaked and that interest rates are likely to peak in the next few months, so they are getting on with property decisions.

While more buyers are active in the market, there is currently a shortage of good quality stock on the market - while house prices have been resilient, Melbourne rental rates are experiencing weaker conditions due to a higher supply of rental properties, and less demand.

Sydney’s housing values  lifted 0.42% in May to a new peak, bringing prices up 3.09% year-to-date according to Proptrack.

Prices were 7.01% above May 2023 levels and 11.89% abover their November 2022 low.

The uplift in properties hitting the market this year has been matched by robust demand fuelling further price increases. However, growth momentum has slowed consistently since February as buyers benefit from more choice.

Moving forward, the various sectors of the Sydney property markets will be fragmented, which is a more “normal” property market

Over the last few months, the sentiment of both Sydney property buyers and sellers has changed and buyers are pushing up the price of well-located A-grade homes and "family-friendly" apartments which are still in short supply, but B-grade properties are taking longer to sell and informed buyers are avoiding C-grade properties.

Sydney’s strong auction clearance trends are also a great "in time" indicator of market sentiment and a leading indicator of future property prices.

Brisbane

The Brisbane’s housing market  remains one of the strongest performing markets over the past year.

Brisbane is now the second-most expensive capital following a period of consistently strong growth.

Prices are now 18.15% above their December 2022 low, according to Proptrack putting values ahead of Melbourne and on par with Canberra.

Brisbane remains one of the strongest performing markets over the past year with home prices now 13.69% above May 2023 levels.

Prices lifted a further 0.67% in May to a fresh peak, though the strength of monthly growth has eased from the fast pace seen throughout the first three months of 2024.

Our on-the-ground experience at Metropole Brisbane shows that there is emerging strong demand from both home buyers and property investors for A-grade homes and investment-grade properties.

Perth’s housing values -  Perth has maintained its streak of relative outperformance and remains the strongest market in the country for monthly (+0.73%) and annual (+20.58%) home price growth.

Tight supply amid strong buyer demand has seen competitive conditions fuelling strong price growth , especially from East Coast investors who are generally "herd animals", diving into markets when they read that prices have risen 15% or 20% in the past year – or 50% in the past three years.

However today, buying in such a market means you are likely buying at – or after – the peak of the market.

I would be cautious about buying in many of the cheaper Perth suburbs where invetsors are buying  at the current prices because they’ve run ahead of the broader market.

Once investor demand from the east coast slows down, these areas are going to weaken first.

The smart money would have been there 2-3 years ago – and is now focused on other states that are early in the growth cycle.

Adelaide’s housing values  rose 0.53% in May to a new peak according to Proptrack.

Adelaide remains one of the country’s top performing markets, with home prices up 14.49% year-on-year. The comparative affordability of the city’s homes has seen prices defy the significant increase in interest rates since May 2022.

Low stock levels are also intensifying competition, with home prices in Adelaide rising at a fast pace over the past year.

Canberra’s property prices  fell 0.21% in May, though prices remain 1.23% above May 2023 levels.

After recovering just under a third of their decline, prices were 4.58% below their March 2022 peak.

Hobart’s housing values

Hobart was the darling of speculative property investors and the best-performing property market in 2017- 2018

Prices in Hobart fell in May, declining 0.13% to sit 1.93% below levels seen this time last year according to Proptrack.

Hobart remains the weakest capital city market when comparing annual price growth (-1.93%), as well as the change from peak (-8.97%).

However, this comes following a period of outperformance during the pandemic as well as strong growth in the years preceding.

Home prices in Hobart are still up 34.9% since March 2020.

Hobart was an under performer for most of 2023 and is likely to remain so in 2024.

Forecast 2

Long-term forecasts for Australian property markets (2025-2030)

Over the next decade, demand for housing is expected to benefit from the triple boost of rising population, rising jobs, and rising income.

Collectively this wealth effect will add around $860 billion of income over the next decade, a significant portion of which is likely could be directed towards housing.

The average Australian tend to spend 13% to 20% of their income and either rent or mortgage servicing.

triple boost for our housing markets

Of course, no matter how many times you forecast property prices, it will always be difficult to predict exactly where property markets and prices will be in three months' time, let alone 6-7 years into the future.

After all, history shows us that some properties will outperform others by 50-100% in terms of capital growth, so strategic property investors who buy investment-grade properties could expect to see the value of their properties more than double within the next seven to 10 years.

So we always have to take forecasts for Australian property markets with a big pinch of salt.

But what I am confident we’ll see for our future property markets comes off the back of our strong projected population increase.

Currently, there are about 26.5 million Australians and Australia's population is forecast to rise to 29 million people by 2030.

This means 3 million more people will need somewhere to live and this will underpin our property markets.

What we predict for Australia’s property market is that there will be many more high-rise towers of apartments, not just in the CBD but in our middle-ring suburbs.

In fact, we are already starting to see this, particularly in Melbourne and Sydney.

And we also expect there will be lots more medium-density housing – in particular townhouses will be a popular way to live with modern large accommodation on more compact blocks of land.

So what about property prices for 2025-2030?

Some economists predict a 40-50% growth in Australia's house prices between now and 2030.

This isn’t surprising because it’s often said that over the long term, the average annual growth rate for well-located capital city properties is about 7% (and we know that prices have risen 6.8% per annum over the past 30 years), which would mean, in general, well-located properties should double in value every 7-10 years.

That would put Australia’s median dwelling price at around $1.1 million in 2030.

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About Michael Yardney Michael is a director of Metropole Property Strategists who help their clients grow, protect and pass on their wealth through independent, unbiased property advice and advocacy. He's once again been voted Australia's leading property investment adviser and one of Australia's 50 most influential Thought Leaders. His opinions are regularly featured in the media.
142 comments

The so called "ex-spirts" go it so wrong at the beginning of this year (2023) and they were so certain of their prediction.... We had the mortgage cliff bearing down upon us We had ever-increasing interest rates. Buyers were going to desert the ma ...Read full version

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Hi Michael, Hope you and all at Metropole enjoy a great festive season. Something that has always puzzled me is where Townhouses sit when describing unit prices and housing prices. Also, now that real estate agents are now referring to high de ...Read full version

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Great summary, I am curious and would to challenge Metropole and Michael to rethink their open bias about the Gold Coast, Australia’s 6th largest city. Curious given your company’s remit is to support property investor clients, and by overlooking arg ...Read full version

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