Understandably, the coronavirus crisis is creating uncertainty for those interested in the Brisbane property market.
Prior to COVID-19, the Brisbane property market was expected to deliver strong capital growth in 2020.
Now, like most housing markets in Australia, Queensland property faces new challenges in the wake of the Coronavirus.
So many are wondering – what’s going to happen to Brisbane property values?
Is it a good time to buy or not?
First let’s start with some context….
Despite a triple whammy consisting of:
- A pandemic that has kept much of the Australian economy on temporary life support, either via the federal government’s JobKeeper and JobSeeker schemes or loan repayment relief from banks.
- Australia slipping into recession, something we haven’t experienced for over 30 years
- World social and political unrest
…Brisbane’s property markets have remained remarkably resilient so far, in fact the median house price in Brisbane is 3.6% higher than it was a year ago.
The Queensland property markets look to be relatively well placed in terms of fundamentals, barring the high exposure of parts of the State to the troubled international tourism sector.
Brisbane’s housing market also had a more subdued run-in prior to the Covid-19 shock and have relatively tight supply/demand balance.
The turnover of property sales in Brisbane rebounded strongly after the April / May lockdown and property sales through June and July were nearly 20% above the same period last year.
Property prices have been relatively resilient, slipping less that 1% so far since the Coronavirus pandemic hit.
Digging deeper into the numbers, apartments and top tier properties have been underperforming but houses and well located suburbs have remained in strong demand and are increasing in price.
Not all Brisbane property will be impacted equally
Clearly there is not one Queensland property market.
Regional Queensland is likely to suffer more while the Brisbane real estate market is underpinned by multiple pillars, and therefore likely to suffer less than areas like the Gold Coast and Sunshine Coast or regional Queensland.
But even Brisbane does not have ‘one’ property market.
Based on the predicted pace of the post-recession recovery, I would expect the pandemic to have a more limited and shorter-lived impact on house prices than either the early-1990s recession or the Global Financial Crisis.
Just to make things clear…I have confidence in the long term future of the Sunshine State capital.
Brisbane is one of the world’s great cities.
Liveability, affordability, scale and future economic prospects all suggest that Brisbane is a market where you can confidently buy.
It’s true that once we come through the Coronavirus pandemic Brisbane is likely to be the one of the best performing property market over the next few years, while some locations in Brisbane have strong growth potential, and the right properties in these locations will make great long term investments, certain submarkets should be avoided like the plague.
To help you make an informed decision, I’m going to examine what’s going on in the Sunshine State in detail in this blog.
But be warned…it’s a little longer than normal, so if you’re looking for a particular element of the Brisbane property market, use these links to skip down the page.
There are multiple markets in the diverse sprawling city of Brisbane; divided by geographic location, price point and property type.
And just to make things clear…I’m talking about the property market in Brisbane – not the Queensland property market. That’s a very different animal!
If you’ve been following my property investment strategy, you’ll know I only invest in capital cities and that’s why I avoid the Sunshine Coast, the Gold Coast and Queensland’s regional markets which have very different (and fewer) growth drivers than Brisbane and are therefore more volatile.
So…is it the right time to get into the Brisbane property market?
Clearly our housing markets won’t be immune to the Coronavirus economic fallout, but the impact on property values will depend on how long it will take to contain the virus, how deep our recession is going to be and how quickly it will rebound, how soon employment growth will rebound and the level of consumer confidence.
Other than Victoria, which is in lockdown, the rest of Australia is starting to show economic green shoots with 45% of the jobs lost in the early part of the pandemic now restored.
However, while the value of some properties may fall a little in the next few months, that won’t really be a reflection of their “intrinsic value” but more a reflection of the short term market sentiment.
And sooner rather than later we’ll come to a point where property transactions and prices will reflect the fundamentals of the Australian economy, as opposed to the current structural changes taking place.
It is understandable that many Australians expect the property markets to behave like it did during previous economic downturns such as the Global Financial Crisis in 2008.
However, unlike previous downturns that were essentially financially lead, this downturn is a medical problem that morphed in an economic issue because of a short-term shutdown of our economy.
That is very different from a recession preceded by economic excess and speculation.
Based on the predicted pace of the post-recession recovery, I would expect the pandemic to have a more limited and shorter-lived impact on house prices than either the early-1990s recession or the Global Financial Crisis.
But remember, there is not one Australian property market.
As I explained, there’s not even one Brisbane property market either.
There are markets within markets dependent upon price point, type of property and geographic location.
So which part of Brisbane’s property market is predicted to fall in value?
Is it all properties? That’s unlikely.
Is it median house prices? Or will certain types of property fall in value much more than the other than others?
- “Investment grade” properties and A grade (above average) homes could fall in value by around -5%
- B grade (average) homes could fall in value by up -10%,
- C grade (less than perfect) will be the hardest hit as there will be a flight to quality.
The worst affected residential markets will be:
- Apartments in high-rise towers – in fact this is these properties are likely to be out of favour for quite some time.
- Off the plan apartments and poor quality investments stock (as opposed to investment-grade) apartments, particularly those close to universities.
- Established homes in the outer suburban new housing estates, where young families are likely to have overextended themselves financially and with many people will be out of work for a while. Currently many first home buyers are taking advantage of the various incentive packages including HomeBuilder to buy newly constructed homes, leaving established houses in these locations languishing.
- Properties in the blue-collar areas.
But this will be on a on very low levels of transactions and he pace of recovery from that point will depend on the state of the wider economy.
All this means that you can’t just buy any property and count on the general Brisbane property market to do the heavy lifting over the next few years, so careful property selection will be critical.
Fast facts about the Brisbane property market
1. Brisbane Property Market Prices
Brisbane property looked like it was finally going to have its turn in the sun until the Coronavirus scare hit us in early 2020.
While the overall figures for the Brisbane housing market remained flat over the last few years the markets are very fragmented.
CoreLogic report that since bottoming out in June 2019, Brisbane’s dwelling values set a new peak in March 2020.
But digging deeper into the stats freestanding Brisbane houses with 5-7 km of the CBD or in good school catchment zones have grown in value strongly.
I know that many of the properties purchased for clients of Metropole’s Brisbane office showed double digit capital growth over the past 12 months – that’s how averages work isn’t it?
Some properties over perform, while others underperform.
The worst affected market will be:
- apartments in high rise towers and new and off the plan apartment sales.
- the more expensive properties and
- properties in the blue-collar areas and new housing estates where young families are likely to have overextended themselves financially and with many people will be out of work for a while.
This should support a return to stronger levels of price growth in the medium term.
One of the major lessons I have learned from previous downturns is the importance of taking a long-term perspective which always outsmarts short-term reactive thinking.
And for mine, it’s always property fundamentals that really matter and drive our markets in the long term.
Things like demographics, supply and demand, affordability, availability finance, and local economic trends.
Housing values were virtually steady across Brisbane in August, down by one tenth of a percent over the month while the estimated number of home sales was up 0.3%.
Brisbane home values have been resilient to major falls.
Since moving through a recent peak in April, home values have fallen by 0.9%, with larger falls across the unit market where values are down 2.1% compared with a 0.7% fall in house values.
Similar to other cities, Brisbane’s upper quartile housing market is recording larger falls, with values down 2.2% across the upper quartile since March while lower quartile home values have held firm over the same period and the broad middle of the market has recorded a 0.6% lift in housing values.
The following chart shows how Australian residential property has historically fared well against negative economic shocks
2. Brisbane’s Property Market Trends
Understandably, the coronavirus crisis is creating uncertainty for those interested in the Brisbane property market, however Brisbane home values have remained firm, declining less than 1% in the last quarter.
Looking back over the last few years Brisbane’s property downturn in 2018-9 was quite shallow compared to the big two capital cities and following its recent upturn property values growth has slowed.
In fact the Brisbane housing market demonstrated admirable resilience, buoyed by steady population growth driving demand and underpinned by good economic fundamentals.
The following graphics highlight the Brisbane property market trends over the last decade.
Currently the number of property sales in Brisbane is picking up from the low levels of a couple of months ago with buyers and sellers back in the market and currently at low levels, asking prices are holding up well:-
Source: SQM Research
However, a factor that will dampen property price growth moving forward is that thanks to COVID-19 the banks are now becoming more cautious.
Some banks are more reluctant to lend to new or off the plan properties in selected Brisbane postcodes by lowering the maximum loan to value ratio.
These postcodes include:Chermside, Hamilton, Milton, Toowong, Woolloongabba and Biggera Waters.
3. Brisbane’s Rental Yields
Brisbane has one of the country’s most stable rental markets up until March 2020.
However the call for foreign residents and tourists to return home amid the rise of desperate renters facing job losses had sparked the last-minute surge in rental vacancies with a drop in asking rentals but this has mainly been in the inner city apartment market.
Brisbane house rentals have held steady.
Source: SQM Research
Traditionally in Brisbane, vacancy rates have been tight; hovering well below the level of 2.5% vacancies, which traditionally represents a balanced rental market.
But as you can see from the graph below, vacancies in Brisbane rose over the last few years in response to the significant oversupply of apartments, however vacancy rates have since fallen as this oversupply was slowly soaked up.
However the current lockdown, social distancing, travel restrictions, the shutdown of immigration and the return of many properties that were previously let as Airbnb to the rental market will lead to higher vacancy rates and rental falls of as much as 10% in some locations.
At Metropole Property Management our vacancy rate is less than half this rate, in part because our clients have chosen investment grade properties, but we’d like to think it also has a bit to do with our proactive property management policies.
According to the SQM, Brisbane’s gross rental yield for houses is currently around 4.0 per cent and for units was over 5.3 per cent
4. Brisbane Capital Growth
Before the onset of COVID-19, one of the underlying demand fundamentals of the Brisbane housing market was its affordability and lifestyle, which drew interstate migration from other parts of Australia, particularly New South Wales.
In the two years to September 2019, ABS migration data suggests that Queensland receive the highest number of interstate migrants of the states and territories.
49.4% of this interstate migration to Queensland Tang from New South Wales.
The breakdown of interstate arrivals from different states to Queensland is present in the chart below.
While Brisbane property prices are considerably more affordable than the other 2 east coast capital cities, earlier this year Corelogic forecasts that one in 10 houses sold in Brisbane will fetch more than $1 million within 2 years.
Well…this may be a little optimistic now.
Sure things will slow down in the short term, but the Brisbane property market is likely to record positive growth for the year 2020 due to the many underlying strong market drivers.
The affordability factor, with Brisbane’s median house price now far lower than Sydney and Melbourne, as well as higher rental returns, is likely to drive more interstate investment into the city.
As mentioned, local affordability and the lifestyle advantages has resulted in strong interstate migration. At the same time 12.7 percent of our overseas migrants have been settling in Queensland and interest from foreign investors is rising.
Of course, international migration will be put on hold for a short time, but once we are through the current pandemic, Brisbane will remain an attractive location for overseas foreign migrants.
Similarly sunny Queensland with its wide open spaces will be even more attractive than ever for interstate migration.
Houses in Brisbane’s inner and middle ring suburbs offer the best prospects of long term capital growth.
Brisbane’s top performing regions 2019
Vulnerable areas in Brisbane
Like most housing markets in Australia, dwelling markets across Queensland now face new challenges in the wake of the coronavirus fallout.
The Brisbane market is the second highest exposure of the capital cities (after Hobart) to accommodation and food, and answer recreation servic.es
In particular, it looks as if the Sunshine Coast and Gold Coast will see many job losses.
These are the dwelling markets that have some of the strongest value growth across Queensland in the last year, but now, these markets may face some of the biggest employment challenges.
What’s special about Brisbane?
5. Brisbane’s demographics
According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics 2016 Census the population of Greater Brisbane which encompasses the local government areas of Brisbane, Logan, Ipswich, Redcliffe and Moreton Bay is 2,270,000.
This is less than half the population of its southern east coast cousins – Sydney and Melbourne.
According to the 2015 Intergenerational Report the population of Australia is expected to almost double by 2055, with Queensland also becoming home to more than seven million people over the next 40 years.
Given its sub-tropical climate, the region is well known for its laidback lifestyle and enviable weather.
Greater Brisbane also has far more affordable property than the southern cities of Melbourne and Sydney.
6. Brisbane’s layout
Brisbane, is a sprawling city with outlying suburbs up to one hour drive from the city centre.
Winding around the Brisbane River the city is rather hilly, with prominent rises including Mt Coot-tha, Enoggera Hill, Mount Gravatt, Toohey Mountain and Highgate Hill to name a few.
The Central Business District itself is fairly well laid out but it can be tricky to navigate through with all the one way.
If you ever get confused a golden rule for the CBD is that the streets with female names (Margaret, Ann, Queen etc.) run parallel to each other and the streets with male names (Edward, George etc.) also run parallel to each other.
The CBD is still in the original settlement location in a curve of the river about 23 kilometres upstream from Moreton Bay.
The river acts as a natural divide with the city colloquially broken into two sections, namely “north of the river” and “south of the river”.
The inner-ring of suburbs of Brisbane are classed as between zero and five kilometres from the CBD, the middle-ring from five kilometres to about 12 kilometres and the outer-ring from the point to the start of the borders of its Greater Brisbane’s regional councils.
In spite of the hilly areas of Brisbane, much of the city exists on the low-lying flood plains, with several suburban creeks throughout the suburbs joining the Brisbane River.
7. Brisbane’s infrastructure
Economic growth in Queensland is projected to accelerate from 2.5% last financial year to 3% by Financial Year 2019, supported by the biggest infrastructure spend since the 2011 flood recovery
This was announced in the FY19 Budget in June 2018.
There are many multi-million dollar projects happening in and around Brisbane at the moment, that are starting to create jobs and more importantly get the economy rolling again.
One of the biggest would have to be the addition of a second runway to the Brisbane Airport and you would hope so too, at a total cost of around $1.3billion.
The project is due for completion in 2020 and after 8 years in the making, will become Australia’s largest aviation construction project.
It has already provided hundreds of construction jobs and by 2035, it is expected to generate up to 8,000 new jobs and generate an additional $5billion dollars to the Brisbane Economy.
To put that into perspective that is almost half the economic output of a Regional town like Toowoomba or more than a third of the output of the Sunshine Coast economy.
The huge project will increase Aircraft capacity to around a staggering 110,000 movements per hour and Brisbane is set to become the gateway to the rest of the country, in particular Asia.
Capitalising on opportunities from the Asian Century, there are many major tourism projects with a combined value of $30 billion scattered up and down Queensland’s coastline.
New resorts – and upgrades of existing resorts – are slated for Brisbane, Ipswich, the Gold and Sunshine coasts, Rockhampton, Mackay and Cairns.
While new infrastructure is an important element for investors to consider, it doesn’t necessarily lead to property price increases and sometimes can be detrimental to an area through increased traffic, noise or pollution.
8. Brisbane’s economy
Brisbane is Queensland’s economic engine room – a growth city with a strong history of economic performance and significant infrastructure investment.
All the economic key pointers are heading in the right direction.
Brisbane’s economy is being underpinned by major projects like Queen’s Wharf, HS Wharf, TradeCoast, Cross River Rail, the second airport runway and the Adani Coal Mine, but jobs growth from these won’t really kick off for a few more years.
Despite global uncertainty, the economy is predicted to be worth more than $217 billion by 2031, according to the Brisbane City Council Economic Development Plan 2012-2031.
9. Brisbane’s Population Growth
Brisbane’s 2019 population is now estimated at 2,372,335.
In 1950, the population of Brisbane was 441,718.
Brisbane has grown by 159,446 since 2015, which represents a 1.75% annual change.
These population estimates and projections come from the latest revision of the UN World Urbanization Prospects.
And the population of Greater Brisbane is expected to continue to experience solid growth over the coming 10 years according to a report by Place Advisory.
The Australian Bureau of Statistics has predicted strong population growth at an average of 62,410 people in Brisbane per year over this period.
Underpinned by continued overseas and interstate migration, metropolitan Brisbane requires approximately 23,000 additional dwellings each year to accommodate its growth.
Greater Brisbane Population Projections
Whilst, family households are expected to see the largest increase over the next 10 years, the Australian Bureau of statistics projects that lone person households will have the highest growth rate leading into 2028, averaging a 2.4% increase per annum.
This is followed by family households which have a projected average growth rate of 1.8% per annum over the same time frame.
Group households are set to see the smallest growth rate at an average of 1.4% per year.
Greater Brisbane Household Projections
10. Brisbane’s culture
Given its sub-tropical climate, Brisbane is well-known for its outdoor lifestyle, especially the plethora of dining options along the Brisbane River in residential and restaurant precincts such as Teneriffe, Bulimba, New Farm and West End.
Brisbane is no longer a “big country town” in fact it’s a veritable hotbed of cultural and creative offerings, festivals and events, according to experts.
Exclusive blockbuster exhibitions and inspiring theatre productions sit alongside independent and emerging local performances, outdoor cinema, street art and intimate gallery and performance spaces.
Lovers of comedy, musicals, live theatre and dance head to the Brisbane Powerhouse and QPAC.
The Queensland Museum and QAGOMA offer free entry to permanent exhibitions.
Fortitude Valley and West End are go-to destinations for local live music gigs and DJs, while international acts visit the Brisbane Entertainment Centre or Suncorp Stadium.
And while Brisbane is Australia’s third largest city, tenants don’t necessarily want the same features as renters in Sydney and Melbourne.
What Brisbane areas are worth investing in?
So where should an investor start looking?
Like everywhere else in Australia, the Brisbane property market will be driven by demographics – where people want to live, how they want to live and how much they can afford.
That’s why I only invest in areas where the locals’ income is growing faster than the national averages.
Think about it… in these locations locals will have higher disposable incomes and be able to and should be prepared to pay a premium to live in these locations.
Many of these locations in Brisbane are the inner and middle ring suburbs which are gentrifying as these wealthier cohorts move in.
There are great investment opportunities in these suburbs in houses and townhouses.
You know how they say “the best indicator of future performance is past performance.”
Now that’s not always correct, but obviously the longer a suburb has outperformed the more likely it will continue to at least perform well and at best remain a star performer.
In Aussie’s 25 year property trend report CoreLogic has identified the best performing suburbs for price growth over the past twenty five years, based on change in median prices between 1993 and 2018.
While the Brisbane property market has been generally subdued compared to the other east coast capitals, of course there is not one Brisbane property market and as you can see from the table below, these top 20 Brisbane suburbs all grew at an average of more than 7% per annum which meant property values more than doubled every 10 years – if you bought in the right suburb – and then of course you had to own the right property in that suburb.
This forms part of the research data we use at Metropole to help our clients find investment grade properties, or A grade homes for owner occupation.
If you’d like to get the independent, award winning team at Metropole on your side to help you through the maze of mixed messages about the Brisbane property market, please click here and leave us you details or call us on 1300 20 30 30
Overall the various suburbs in Queensland show a dramatic range in performance, highlighting both the diversity in housing stock around the State, and no doubt that next twenty five years will show an equally diverse result
Consider school zones
There’s no doubt that proximity to popular education catchments influences property prices in Brisbane.
This is true of both primary and secondary school catchment zones, which have in general outperformed the market and are likely to continue to do so.
Education is a long-term consideration and, whether you are planning a family, have children already enrolled in school, or are an investor looking to attract long term, quality tenants, it may be beneficial to consider school catchment zones when you are determining suburbs of interest.
Here are Brisbane’s Best Performing Suburbs Over the Last 20 Years
These staggering amount of capital growth may surprise you, especially when you consider all the headwinds, Brisbane has faced over that time frame.
From economic events like the stock market crash in the early 2000’s to the Global Financial Crash to round out the previous decade and a mining downturn also didn’t help.
While most states went on to recover, Queensland faced a range of natural disasters from floods to cyclones that also took its toll on our economy.
So, despite all of that, these are very impressive figures.
While I am not suggesting the same amount of growth will occur in the next 20 years, I would certainly like to evaluate these suburbs and understand why they stood out.
What do these Suburbs Have in Common?
Here are the top 4:-
- 80% of these Suburbs are located within 10km of the Brisbane CBD.
- 80% of these suburbs have a train line
- 80% of these suburbs have a highly desirable school catchment
- All of these suburbs have incomes well above the Queensland average
For those that know these suburbs more than half of them have all 4 of these key drivers – so why fight the big trends when looking for your next investment property?
Some advice for new Brisbane investors?
11. Look for Brisbane’s best properties in the inner- and middle-ring suburbs.
Research shows that those suburbs close to the city centre generally perform better than all others over the long-term.
Our research at Metropole shows that (in general) properties closer to the CBD and closer to water increased in value faster than those further from the CBD and further from water.
And this general trend has again been confirmed by a paper by the Australian Housing and Urban Research Institute, which found that both in percentage terms and in absolute terms over the long haul suburbs located reasonably close to the CBD, where demand is high, close to employment and where the most people want to live and where there’s no land available for release, outperformed the outer suburbs.
One of the significant changes to occur in Australian cities over the past 50 years, and which has pushed up inner- and middle-ring suburb property values, is gentrification.
Interestingly this wasn’t caused by deliberate planning policy, but resulted from a set of demographic changes that have occurred in most major capital cities around the world.
The exodus of industry, migrants and many workers made way for gentrification of our inner suburbs where initially house prices and rents were cheaper than in the suburbs.
Later, our changing demographics with declining household size, in part because we were getting married later and having fewer children, meant that small inner suburban dwellings or apartments provided ideal accommodation for the expanding cohort of professionals who worked in or close to the CBD.
Gentrifiers were initially drawn to these inner suburbs by the diversity of jobs, educational opportunities and lifestyle and this trend continues today as more and more Australians are swapping their back yard for.
You may also want to watch this video: 5 Important Things Interstate Investors Need To Know Before Investing In Brisbane.
12. 4 Suburbs that MUST be on your radar
With leading Economists tipping Brisbane to lead the nation for capital growth over the next few years, I suggest you do your research before jumping on in!
BIS Schrapnel has predicted 13% growth for Brisbane out until 2021 and a recent report by QBE Insurance has predicted 11%.
Whatever the outcome, it is clear that Brisbane will continue to tick over with steady growth, while the rest of the nation takes a breather.
While Brisbane houses have only averaged around 25% growth over the last 5 years (or 5% per annum), these suburbs have outperformed and will continue to do so;
The Entry Level Suburbs
Budgets starting $530,000 – $600,000
Yes, my Sydney and Melbourne friends, it is possible to buy a house within that budget!
We have been buying in Keperra and Chermside West now for a number of years and for a number of reasons.
These suburbs sit around 9-10km from Brisbane and are the furthest out we recommend buying.
Let’s take a look at some of the data*;
The appealing thing about Keperra for us gets down to the Demographics.
Firstly, nearly two thirds of people own or are paying off a mortgage, a high owner occupier percentage.
Weekly Family Income has continually hovered above the Queensland average but in recent years, it has started to move even further ahead.
The most common Occupation in this location is Health Care and Social and according to the Queensland Government, this is going to be the fastest growing sector in Brisbane over the next few years and with our ageing population there will always be work.
These higher incomes and job certainty, mean that people will have more to spend on their home and be much more comfortable in doing so.
Adding to that, Keperra is also a train station suburb and according to Matusik research, suburbs close to rail have grown 40% more in value over the last decade in Brisbane.
In the last 5 years, while Brisbane has averaged around 25%, Keperra has almost 30% in the same time.
The future is bright and if you know where to find the superior pockets, you will be handsomely rewarded.
Chermside West has very similar Demographics.
Income and Occupation is very similar and owner occupier percentage is almost 80%!.
We are seeing this suburb really gentrifying as social housing and retirees move out, they are being replaced by younger professionals who are targeting the nearby Craigslea State School catchment.
The suburb also boasts two hospitals that draw health care professionals to the area and it benefits from the development of neighbour Chermside into a type of Satellite City.
While many investors are attracted to Chermside, we would prefer Chermside West, with its favourable Demographics, higher owner occupier percentage and superior school zone.
You also get all the benefits of all the Chermside upgrading without having high rise and business on your door step.
The numbers tell the story here also with a rise of 36% over the last 5 years, well above the Brisbane average.
Other Entry level suburbs to keep an eye on;
- Stafford Heights
- Everton Park
Budgets starting from $650,000+
Starting to get closer in now and there are a number of good suburbs that sit around 6 or 7km to the Brisbane CBD.
Our pick currently is Cannon Hill.
Here is some of the research;
Weekly Incomes in Cannon Hill have soared dramatically over the last few decades.
From almost being level with the Queensland average back in 1991, the last decade has seen a dramatic increase in wages and our expectation is that this will continue.
Again, it has a greater level of owner occupiers with around 70% either paying off a mortgage or owning their property outright.
It also has a lot of the tick boxes a family is looking for with access to good schools, green space, a bus and train line and easy access to our bugger employment hubs.
There is also a big trend to low maintenance living and with many bigger blocks having been subdivided over the years, land is now at a premium.
We have chosen Cannon Hill for it’s access to our ever expanding CBD, but also is the closest southern suburb to benefit from the Brisbane Airport precinct expansion.
The suburb has also seen around 30% growth over the last 5 years on average.
Other middle ring suburbs to keep an eye on;
- Holland Park
The bullet proof 5km ring
Budgets starting from $800,000+
Suburbs within the 5km ring are starting to resemble all the traits and pricing of some of our southern capitals, but one suburb that still offers value is Ashgrove.
Ashgrove is around 4km from the Brisbane CBD and has an excellent reputation for being a popular family suburb.
Here is some of the data;
The Demographics and Incomes here are increasingly very strong, with many in the professional and services-based industries and incomes heading toward twice the Queensland average.
The suburbs average age is 40 – 59, so families generally come first in this suburb, there is no surprise to see some of Brisbane’s best and most highly sought-after schools scattered throughout the streets.
It has a very leafy, green feel with walking paths and tracks and plenty of green space and combined with a number of larger character homes that have been restored and renovated it has found a great balance for an inner-city location.
Adding to that the easy access to shops and lifestyle precincts with high walkability it will remain in high demand moving forward and has already seen more than 36% growth over the past 5 years.
Other inner ring suburbs to keep an eye on;
With Brisbane tipped to lead the nation for capital growth over the shorter term, it will see interest rise in the Brisbane market.
While there will be opportunities available for almost every budget, it is important to understand the intricacies of each suburb.
Even within these locations I have mentioned, I would be reluctant to buy in some streets and pockets within these suburbs.
It takes on the ground knowledge and some content to understand the less desirable areas, the flood locations and undulating areas.
On the flip side, if you get the location right, you will be rewarded with above average capital growth and be able to set yourself up for the next stage of the property cycle, while others tread water.
13. Be mindful of the Brisbane apartment market oversupply
Apartment living in Brisbane came late to the party compared to Sydney and Melbourne and, in general, houses make better long-term investments than apartments in Brisbane.
While many apartment towers have been built in the Brisbane CBD and surrounding suburbs, the recent building boom created an oversupply which is only now being slowly taken up.
However, moving forward after coronavirus, and with fewer international students and tourists in the next little while, I can see high rise apartment tower living falling out of favour.
People are going to be more wary and not want to share lifts and stairwells and press the same elevator buttons that others are.
In 2019, 5,000 apartments were completed in Brisbane, a decrease from the 5,600 apartments completed in 2018.
As you can see from the following chart apartment completion is across metropolitan Brisbane peaked over 2016 and 2017 when approximately 11,000 apartments were built each year.
With a few apartment complexes in the pipeline, oversupply will slowly be absorbed.
As mentioned, with fewer people wanting to live in high-rise apartment towers in Brisbane’s CBD and inner ring, there is little prospect of capital growth or rental growth in Brisbane’s apartment market in the near future.
I can see the situation where some off the plan purchasers will have to wait up to a decade for capital and rental growth.
Here’s a big mistake made by interstate property investors buying into Brisbane
Currently the Brisbane property market is being infiltrated by Sydney investors ‘buying blind’.
With Sydney property prices having risen strongly over the last few years and now that the market has slowed down from it’s frenetic pace, these high prices plus tighter banking regulations limiting investor’s budgets has caused many Sydneysiders to follow the sun north and look for property investment opportunities in Queensland but many are making a big mistake.
According to an article in Domain Sydney investors are increasingly buying properties in Brisbane solely on photographs and skipping inspections.
And they’re buying the wrong properties in the wrong location based on price.
Agents quoted in Domain say these southern investors are buying up in Brisbane suburbs considered “unfavourable” by locals and boosting house prices
One agent was quoted as saying:
“…blind-buying Sydney investors had flooded into the Logan market.
“Out of every 10 sales, five will be investors, and two will not have viewed the home, and that is a modest estimate.
“Often it seems as the investors have no idea about the area’s reputation.”
Domain quoted another agent as saying:
“We are seeing about 70 per cent of Sydney investors buying without seeing the homes,”
The lesson – don’t buy sight unseen:
It’s incredible what you can achieve, and the unsightly features you can avoid showcasing, when you’re using a good camera and exploit the right camera angles.
I’ve heard horror stories of people who have bought sight unseen thinking their investment property had an incredible view (it did – but only from the toilet) or who didn’t realise huge powerlines dominated the streetscape, because they relied on agent photos only.
The moral of the story is don’t risk purchasing site unseen unless you have a trusted representative review the property on your behalf.
How do I choose a strong investment property in Brisbane?
14. Buy a property for below its intrinsic value
I’m a big believer in buying property for below its intrinsic value – that’s why I avoid new and off the plan properties, which generally attract a premium price tag.
Remember, though, that you’re not looking for a ”cheap” property (there will always be cheap properties around in secondary locations).
You’re looking for the right property at a good price.
Properties to consider may be ones that are a little ugly or untidy but have good “bones” and are in good or superior locations.
15. Buy a property that outperforms the averages
Look for an area that has a long, proven history of strong capital growth and is one that is likely to continue to outperform the averages.
This is largely because of the demographics in the area.
These suburbs tend to be those where a large number of owner occupiers desire to live in the area, because of lifestyle choices of offer.
I look for suburbs where wages (and therefore disposable income) is increasing above average.
This translates to being an area where locals are able to and prepared to pay a premium price to live there, putting a financial floor under your investment property.
This is also considered to be gentrification.
So what we’re seeing is high-income people moving into particular locations, which perhaps used to be considered blue-collar, and spending their money there in new cafes and on renovating their homes.
16. Buy a property with a “twist”
An investment must have something unique, or special, or different or scarce – some ‘X factor’ that makes it stand out from its neighbours – in order to land on my shortlist.
So when your looking at the Brisbane property market, consider properties that are “special” because of their design, e.g. perhaps Queenslanders or art deco apartments or properties in desirable locations.
Although you must keep in mind that sometimes these unique properties are more expensive to buy and to maintain, but history shows us they usually have stronger capital growth
17. Buy a property where you can manufacture capital growth
An ideal investment is one in which you can manufacture capital growth through refurbishment, renovations or redevelopment.
For example, there are tens of thousands of properties out there that could all have their values increased through simple renovations.
While I don’t believe that investors should subscribe to the “buy, renovate, sell” philosophy, because the opportunity to profit is not great, what works really well, if done correctly, is a buy renovate and hold your investment property.
Here you buy a property with renovation potential, renovate and then keep it as a long-term investment having added value.
This added value will give you improved rentability – your property will be more attractive to a wide range of tenants – as well as achieving a higher rent and you will have “manufactured” some equity.
So what does all this mean?
To me, the picture is clear.
Brisbane’s property market is ripe for investment – its economy is improving, population is growing, infrastructure is being added and property remains affordable.
Your biggest challenge is to find the right property to buy, but that’s what the Brisbane team at Metropole specialise in.
Why not click here now and have a chat with us and discuss your options.
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18. Get news, updates and advice by email
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19. Take advantage of investment advice
If you’re wondering what will happen to property in 2020–2021 you are not alone.
You can trust the team at Metropole to provide you with direction, guidance and results.
In challenging times like we are currently experiencing you need an advisor who takes a holistic approach to your wealth creation and that’s what you exactly what you get from the multi award winning team at Metropole.
If you’re looking at buying your next home or investment property here’s 4 ways we can help you:
- Strategic property advice. – Allow us to build a Strategic Property Plan for you and your family. Planning is bringing the future into the present so you can do something about it now! This will give you direction, results and more certainty. Click here to learn more
- Buyer’s agency – As Australia’s most trusted buyers’ agents we’ve been involved in over $3Billion worth of transactions creating wealth for our clients and we can do the same for you. Our on the ground teams in Melbourne, Sydney and Brisbane bring you years of experience and perspective – that’s something money just can’t buy. We’ll help you find your next home or an investment grade property. Click here to learn how we can help you.
- Wealth Advisory – We can provide you with strategic tailored financial planning and wealth advice. Click here to learn more about we can help you.
- Property Management – Our stress free property management services help you maximise your property returns. Click here to find out why our clients enjoy a vacancy rate considerably below the market average, our tenants stay an average of 3 years and our properties lease 10 days faster than the market average.
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