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By Michael Yardney
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Brisbane’s property market forecast for 2024

key takeaways

Key takeaways

Brisbane continues to be one of Australia’s strongest capital city housing markets and is likely to remain so throughout 2024, with dwelling values continuing to go from strength to strength.

Brisbane's housing market skyrocketed over the last few years with 55.2% price growth since the onset of COVID-19 and is currently at a new peak in price.

Like everywhere else in the country, Brisbane’s rental market is in crisis with historically low vacancy rates and skyrocketing rents.

The strong demand for detached houses in Brisbane, particularly in the inner and middle ring suburbs, and outstanding demand for lifestyle areas, are likely to lead to these locations outperforming cheaper properties in outer suburbs.

At the same time, demand for apartments is likely to remain softer, but more and more Queenslanders are turning to townhouses in Brisbane's inner suburbs as a preferred style of accommodation.

ANZ Bank forecasts a 9-10% property price rise in Brisbane in 2024.

Are you wondering what's ahead for the Brisbane property market in 2024?

Brisbane continues to be one of Australia’s strongest capital city housing markets and is likely to remain so throughout 2024, with dwelling values continuing to go from strength to strength.

Brisbane's housing market skyrocketed over the last few years with 56.81% price growth since the onset of COVID-19 and is currently at a new peak in price.

This remarkable growth has pushed up the city’s median home value to be higher than that of Melbourne.

Here is the latest data on the median property prices for Brisbane.

Property Median price Δ MoM Δ QoQ Δ Annual
All Capital city dwellings $843,231 1.4% 3.9% 16.3%
Capital city houses $937,479 1.4% 3.7% 16.0%
Capital city units $615,429 1.9% 5.3% 18.2%
Regional dwellings $637,570 1.1% 3.5% 11.8%

Source: CoreLogic, 1st June 2024

Brisbane’s property markets update

Despite more homes being listed for sale and rising prices making property less affordable, the Brisbane property market is expected to keep steaming ahead in 2024.

A slowdown in construction has hampered the supply of new housing, concentrating demand on existing properties.

Both buyer and seller confidences increased in the early part of this year, with the thought that potential rate cuts could boost borrowing capacity, giving buyers more money to spend.

At Metropole Brisbane we’re finding that strategic investors and homebuyers are back actively looking to upgrade, picking the eyes out of the market.

Total Property Listings 17 June

 

Source: SQM Research

Brisbane’s rental markets remain exceptionally tight

Dr. Andrew Wilson reports the Brisbane rental markets have commenced 2024 with more tough results for tenants with generally higher rents and continuing near record-low vacancy rates for both houses and units.:

  • Brisbane’s vacancy rates for houses is 0.9% with rents rising 9.3% over the last year.
  • Brisbane’s vacancy rates for units is 1.0% with rents rising 24.8% over the last year.

Residential Vacancy Rates 17 June

Source: SQM Research

Like everywhere else in the country, Brisbane’s rental market is in crisis.

The city has seen significant investment in recent years, and many people have moved to Brisbane to take advantage of job opportunities and high quality of life.

But a migration surge has led to an increased demand for rental properties, which has kept the vacancy rate low.

While the current vacancy rate in Brisbane may be good news for landlords, it only serves to exacerbate the city’s already pressurised rental market with renters increasingly struggling to look for affordable housing.

Weekly Rent Listings 17 June

Source: SQM Research

2024 is unlikely to provide any relief for tenants with new home building levels remaining chronically recessed despite government policies designed to reduce surging migration.

Key trends for Brisbane’s housing market 2024

The strong demand for detached houses in Brisbane, particularly in the inner and middle ring suburbs, and outstanding demand for lifestyle areas, are likely to lead to these locations outperforming cheaper properties in outer suburbs.

At the same time, demand for apartments is likely to remain softer, but more and more Queenslanders are turning to townhouses in Brisbane's inner suburbs as a preferred style of accommodation.

Of course, while some locations in Brisbane have strong growth potential, and the right properties in these locations will make great long-term investments, certain submarkets should be avoided like the plague.

So it’s really a tale of two cities – while some properties overperform, others underperform.

Currently, high-income households are generating much of the demand in the housing market because they have been less affected by high cost-of-living pressures and have retained much of the savings accumulated during COVID-19.

The worst-performing segments of the market in 2024 are likely to be apartments (particularly high-rise towers and new off-the-plan apartment sales) and properties in blue-collar areas and new housing estates where young families are likely to have overextended themselves financially and many people will be out of work for a while.

It’s likely that some of the high-rise apartment towers in and around Brisbane’s CBD, which were already suffering from the adverse publicity of structural problems prior to COVID-19, will now become the slums of the future as they are shunned by homeowners and investors.

Like after every downturn, moving forward there will be a flight to quality properties and an increased emphasis on livability.

That explains why we’re seeing robust demand for A-grade homes and investment-grade properties, particularly in lifestyle locations, with many holding their values well.

Buyers will be willing to pay a little more for properties with a little more space and security, but it won’t be just the property itself that will need to meet these newly evolved needs – a “livable” location will play a big part too.

To many, livability will mean a combination of:

  • Proximity – to things like parks, shops, amenities, and good schools
  • Mobility – access to good public transport (even though this may be less important moving forward) or a good road system
  • Access to jobs

Another driver of strong capital growth in Brisbane is school zones.

As part of their property decision-making process, many parents and investors consider the geographical location of a potential property in relation to a school catchment zone.

When people are looking for a home, they’re looking for a lifestyle, and education is a big part of that picture.

Brisbane’s migration and population growth vs. property prices

Brisbane and Queensland can thank a huge influx of internal migrants for the robustness of their property markets – between the pandemic, lockdowns, and a surging property market many Australians, particularly from Victoria and NSW, flocked northwards to our Sunshine State in search of more affordable property in lifestyle suburbs.

And the lifestyle move is one that still holds true today, having picked up pace throughout 2023.

Popular areas of the Gold Coast and Sunshine Coast have enjoyed strong demand considering the increased flexibility of being able to work from home and commuting to the big smoke less frequently.

At the same time property investor activity has been strong, particularly for houses, not only coming from locals but from interstate investors who see a strong upside in Brisbane property prices as well as favourable rental returns.

Of course, there is not one Queensland property market, nor one south-east Queensland property market, and different locations are performing differently and are likely to continue to do so.

Queensland recorded a population growth rate of 2.6% in the 12 months to 30 June 2023, above the national average (2.4%) and third highest among all states and territories - behind Western Australia’s 3.1% increase and Victoria’s 2.7% increase over the same period, according to the latest ABS data.

What sets Queensland apart from the rest, though, is that while the volume of net overseas migration dominates figures (as it does elsewhere in other states) Queensland’s volume of net interstate migration is significantly higher and made the largest contribution to population growth in Queensland in the 12 months to June 2023.

NSW QLD VIC
Interstate arrivals 82,008 107,935 74,188
Interstate departures 116,166 75,680 76,051
Net interstate migration -34,158 32,255 -1,863

Fig04

Source: ABS data

And there is more forecasted population growth on the horizon.

Federal government forecasts suggest that Queensland’s population is expected to grow by more than 16% by the time Brisbane hosts the Olympic Games in 2032.

And the population spread in Australia’s most decentralised state is tipped to sway towards the city, with most Queenslanders expected to live in Greater Brisbane by the time the Olympic flame is lit at the Gabba.

Greater Brisbane is expected to grow faster than the rest of Queensland, with a rate of 1.9% projected for the capital in 2022-23, compared to 1.4% for the rest of the state.

That means that Queensland’s population is set to boom in the coming decades, from the current 5.4 million people to as much as 8.27 million by 2046.

Brisbane

Brisbane’s fundamentals are very strong

It’s not just Brisbane’s population and migration growth that is holding up the state’s economy, the remainder of the city’s underlying fundamentals are also very strong.

Queensland made history by becoming the best-performing state economy for the first time in January 2023.

The CommSec State of the States report at the time showed that its economy grew at a faster pace than any other state in Australia, thanks to strong population growth, a solid job market, and overseas demand for energy resources, such as coal and natural gas.

It is worth noting that Queensland has the highest underemployment rate and lowest participation rate and employment-to-population ratio across the major eastern states.

And I would argue it has been this job growth that has fuelled record levels of migration because most will not be willing to make a life-changing move unless they have some form of employment on the horizon.

This is something that was sorely missing from the Sunshine State in the first half of the last decade.

Another appeal of Queensland’s property market is that property values still remain low relative to other major cities – and we know affordability is a key driver of migrants into the area.

The median dwelling price for our combined capital cities now sits at $757,746 - Brisbane’s strong growth means its prices sit at a slightly higher $787,217, but that’s still significantly below Sydney’s $1.12 million median and only just surpasses Melbourne’s $780,457 median price.

While Brisbane’s property market was significantly more affordable before the property boom, it still represents a valuable benefit to buyers who are looking to purchase at a time when interest rates are rising steeply.

And the impending 2032 Olympics, hosted by Brisbane, will only serve to put even more pressure on the city.

The need for upgraded infrastructure and transport in Brisbane, the Gold Coast, and the Sunshine Coast will likely put a rocket under Brisbane’s property market.

Why?

Because infrastructure spending is one of the most powerful forces in residential real estate – it can transform local economies and generate real estate booms.

That’s because major infrastructure projects can elevate the appeal of locations by improving the accessibility or amenity of an area and they can also generate economic activity and jobs during construction.

Brisbane

Brisbane’s top performers 2023

2023 was a year when our property markets began the new phase of the property cycle - the recovery phase.

Even despite higher interest rates, sky-high inflation, and tightened lending, property markets across the country rebounded from their January 2023 trough.

And some, like Brisbane, even recovered or exceeded prices from the previous record high.

Although, as always, there is not one “Brisbane property market” and some segments outperformed others.

Here are some of the best performers for Queensland in 2023, according to CoreLogic’s Best of the Best report 2023:

Brisbane's House Sales - Best Performers 2023

Feature Suburb / Area Numbers
Most expensive suburb NEW FARM (BRISBANE INNER CITY) $2,795,456
Most affordable suburb COLLINSVILLE (MACKAY - ISAAC - WHITSUNDAY) $155,002
Strongest 12-month growth in values MACGREGOR (BRISBANE - SOUTH) 24.70%
Strongest 12-month decline in values SUNRISE BEACH (SUNSHINE COAST) -4.80%
Strongest 12-month growth in rents MORANBAH (MACKAY - ISAAC WHITSUNDAY) 20.50%
Highest gross rental yields COLLINSVILLE (MACKAY- ISAAC WHITSUNDAY) 12.80%

Brisbane's Unit Sales - Best Performers 2023

Feature Suburb / Area Numbers
Most expensive suburb NOOSA HEADS (SUNSHINE COAST) $1,707,637
Most affordable suburb LAGUNA QUAYS (MACKAY - ISAAC - WHITSUNDAY) $92,428
Strongest 12 month growth in values SLACKS CREEK (LOGAN - BEAUDESERT) 27.40%
Strongest 12 month decline in values SUNRISE BEACH (SUNSHINE COAST) -6.70%
Strongest 12 month growth in rents MORANBAH (MACKAY - ISAAC WHITSUNDAY) 19.60%
Highest gross rental yields MORANBAH (MACKAY - ISAAC WHITSUNDAY) 10.70%

 

And these are the Brisbane and regional Queensland suburbs with the top sales in 2023:

House Sales - Greater Brisbane

# Suburb Region Number sold 12m 2023 Total value 12m 2023 Median value 2023
1 North Lakes Moreton Bay - South 439 $345,654,599 $820,749
2 Caboolture Moreton Bay - North 533 $344,483,809 $635,633
3 Morayfield Moreton Bay - North 452 $322,988,508 $648,419
4 Camp Hill Brisbane - South 187 $299,841,155 $1,533,949
5 Narangba Moreton Bay - North 377 $296,556,098 $814,430

Source: CoreLogic

House Sales - Regional QLD

# Suburb Region Number sold 12m 2023 Total value 12m 2023 Median value 2023
1 Hope Island Gold Coast 295 $624,471,666 $1,362,075
2 Buderim Sunshine Coast 506 $600,196,744 $1,119,233
3 Broadbeach Waters Gold Coast 179 $447,999,076 $2,005,020
4 Noosaville Sunshine Coast 169 $383,984,454 $1,954,901
5 Palm Beach Gold Coast 209 $379,310,420 $1,665,627

Source: CoreLogic

Unit Sales - Greater Brisbane

# Suburb Region Number sold 12m 2023 Total value 12m 2023 Median value 2023
1 Brisbane City Brisbane Inner City 753 $484,525,643 $599,457
2 Newstead Brisbane Inner City 382 $294,071,890 $707,678
3 South Brisbane Brisbane Inner City 469 $291,455,514 $625,144
4 New Farm Brisbane Inner City 253 $288,377,500 $832,818
5 West End Brisbane Inner City 398 $271,675,943 $707,173

Source: CoreLogic

Unit Sales - Regional QLD

# Suburb Region Number sold 12m 2023 Total value 12m 2023 Median value 2023
1 Surfers Paradise Gold Coast 1499 $1,174,281,329 $672,734
2 Broadbeach Gold Coast 450 $457,525,936 $955,305
3 Southport Gold Coast 712 $430,390,525 $619,984
4 Maroochydore Sunshine Coast 399 $339,411,708 $781,397
5 Palm Beach Gold Coast 258 $260,842,076 $902,348

Source: CoreLogic

As you can see, Moreton Bay South and Brisbane City dominate the strongest markets for houses and units in Greater Brisbane.

And in regional Queensland, the Gold Coast and Sunshine Coast have seen an impressive volume of sales over the past 12 months.

As with Sydney and Melbourne, there is a strong correlation between the prices of dwellings in markets and recent growth performance.

This means the ‘higher end’ of the Brisbane market is generally making larger gains.

Brisbane’s housing market - the forecast for 2024

Digging deeper into the stats for some Brisbane properties - bearing in mind there are multiple markets within markets - have far outperformed others.

But it seems that freestanding Brisbane houses within 5-7 km of the CBD or in good school catchment zones have grown in value particularly strongly.

And the expert consensus is that strong population growth and tight supply will continue to push property prices upwards as we move through this next stage of the property cycle.

Here are some of the most recent expert forecasts to take note of:

  • ANZ forecasts a 9-10% property price rise in Brisbane in 2024.
  • CBA forecasts a 6% property price rise in Brisbane in 2024.
  • NAB forecasts a 6.5% property price rise in Brisbane in 2024.
  • Westpac forecasts an 8% property price rise in Brisbane in 2024.
  • PropTrack forecasts a 3-6% property price rise in Brisbane in 2024.

Oxford Economics recently made the following forecasts of where Brisbane house prices will be in 3 years time.

As you can see, they are expecting strong performance of the Brisbane housing market for the next few years.

3-year property price forecast (by June 2027)

City Median price Total price growth
Houses Units Houses Units
Brisbane $1.21M $0.71M 19% 23%
Combined capitals $1.34M $0.87M 20% 21%

Source: Oxford Economics, PriceFinder

About Michael Yardney Michael is a director of Metropole Property Strategists who help their clients grow, protect and pass on their wealth through independent, unbiased property advice and advocacy. He's once again been voted Australia's leading property investment adviser and one of Australia's 50 most influential Thought Leaders. His opinions are regularly featured in the media.
359 comments

Hey Michael, I'm a Real Estate Agent in Brisbane City. I've just now finished my associate programs and am now an agent. I'm 19 years old, and I'm looking to start building my property portfolio. I've got colleagues who are telling me it's too soon ...Read full version

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I live in southern logan subarb. I bought a house last year on mortgage. I want to buy another investment property. Please advise.

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I want to purchase an investment property can you suggest which state would be good to invest. I already have an investment property in Melbourne. Will Perth or Brisbane be better to invest and which suburbs do you recommend ?

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