Key takeaways
Sydney home prices lifted 0.3% in July and are now at a new peak.
Buyer demand is absorbing an uplift in new listings hitting the market in Sydney, and auction clearance rates have remained high throughout the year showing the depth of buyer demand.
New dwelling approvals are declining at a time when the housing supply shortage is at crisis point showing Government’s approach has created a “perfect storm” which will only see prices and rentals increase.
The Sydney auction market started the year strongly showing a significant depth of buyers in the market.
With vacancy rates at historic lows, rentals are skyrocketing in Sydney.
Are you wondering what’s ahead for the Sydney property market for the rest of 2024?
Well…Sydney’s home values will continue to increase, although a little more slowly than they did in 2023.
The surge in properties for sale in Sydney hasn’t yet slowed demand, with prices rising 0.3% in July and 5.6% over the past year.
Both buyer and seller confidence has increased with the thought that potential rate cuts could boost borrowing capacity, giving buyers more money to spend.
New dwelling approvals are declining at a time when the housing supply shortage is at crisis point showing Government’s approach has created a “perfect storm” which will only see prices and rentals increase.
Here is the latest data on the median property prices for Sydney.
| Property | Median price | Δ MoM | Δ QoQ | Δ Annual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All Capital city dwellings | $1,180,463 | 0.3% | 0.8% | 5.0% |
| Capital city houses | $1,471,892 | 0.3% | 0.8% | 5.7% |
| Capital city units | $859,050 | 0.5% | 0.7% | 3.3% |
| Regional dwellings | $738,301 | 0.2% | 0.2% | 3.9% |
Source: CoreLogic, 2nd September 2024
Although Sydney’s housing market has clearly turned a corner in early 2023 with prices rising steadily month-on-month, Sydney’s home values have yet to return to their peak last reached in January 2022.
According to CoreLogic, Sydney dwelling prices rose 25.4% from the onset of COVID-19 to their cyclical peak in January 2022 before suffering a 13.8% fall through to the January 2023 trough.
The latest data shows prices are only -1.4% below their previous peak… so a new records will be set soon.
Of course, there is no "one" Sydney housing market and some areas are strongly outperforming others.
It's a bit like having one hand in a bucket of hot water and the other in a bucket of cold water and saying: On average I'm feeling comfortable.
Sydney’s listings are low
While Sydney property buyers are back in force, they are currently being cautious - their pockets are shallower and borrowing capacity significantly reduced.
But more investors are getting into the Sydney market now recognising that there is a current window of opportunity and that in 12 months’ time, the properties they purchased today will look like a bargain.
However, despite the overall caution, buyer demand is still strong which will continue to push Sydney’s property market through its revival.
Sellers are also coming back to the market with total property listings for Sydney marginally higher than in the same month last year, although the stock of older listings is slimmer so overall supply remains constrained.
Source: SQM Research
Sydney’s auction clearance rates are a good indicator of the depth of buyer and seller sentiment and auction clearance rates have been strong throughout 2024 suggesting more price increases are ahead.
While the data is insightful, as we know, Sydney’s market is not a one-size-fits-all property market.
There is a clear flight to quality with A-grade homes and investment-grade properties still in short supply for the prevailing strong demand, but B-grade properties are taking longer to sell and informed buyers are avoiding C-grade properties.
After all, some of the city’s suburbs are so tightly held that an available property for sale comes around once in a blue moon with homeowners holding onto their houses for as long as 20 years.
And areas in lifestyle or coastal suburbs are still in particularly strong demand as homebuyers wait to secure their dream property.
At Metropole Sydney, we’re finding that strategic investors are looking to take advantage of the window of opportunity currently available to them, while homebuyers are still actively looking to upgrade, picking the eyes out of the market.
While overall Sydney property values are likely to gain some more ground, like all our capital cities there is not one Sydney property market, and A-grade homes and investment-grade properties remain in strong demand and are likely to outperform, many holding their values well.
In other words, the various sectors of the Sydney property markets will be fragmented, which is a more “normal” property market.
Sydney’s rental markets remain exceptionally tight
Vacancy rates in Sydney’s rental market are traditionally very tight, usually hovering well below the national baseline.
But thanks to soaring demand and severe undersupply in the rental market, the national vacancy rate is exceptionally low today by historical standards.
SQM Research recorded Sydney’s vacancy rate has crept up a little to 1.7%.
By comparison, the vacancy rate which represents a balanced market is around 2-2.5%.
Source: SQM Research
This shows us that, like everywhere else in the country, Sydney’s rental market has plunged into crisis, with record-low vacancy rates, high rent prices, strong demand, and a rising population putting the city’s market into a pressure cooker environment.
And the data for vacancy rates and also weekly rent listings highlights that the distressing state of Sydney’s rental market leads to a bleak outlook for renters.
And at Metropole Property Management our vacancy rate is less than half the industry rate, in part because our clients have chosen investment-grade properties, but we'd like to think it also has a bit to do with our proactive property management policies.
Source: SQM Research
Sydney has been facing a rental housing shortage for several years now.
This has led to increased competition for available homes, driving up rentals and making it increasingly difficult for many Australians to afford a place to live.
One of the aspects of the housing market boom during the pandemic was that it was driven by owner-occupier buyers.
And since Australia’s international borders in early 2022, Sydney has become a major recipient of new residents, both skilled immigrants and overseas students, putting extra pressure on the Sydney property market, particularly the rental markets.
Sydney's population grew by 2.1% in the 12 months to 30 June 2023, according to ABS figures.
The state is expected to gain a million new citizens over the next decade, principally from overseas, bringing the population to 9.1 million by 2033, data from the federal government’s Centre for Population suggests.
And this will only serve to put even more pressure on Sydney’s rental crisis.
We're just not building enough dwellings in Sydney.
Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) data shows NSW dwelling approvals declined in June by an appalling 19%.
The 1,597 private houses approved in June is the lowest recorded figure for NSW since January 2013, according to the ABS.
These figures highlight the dire, and worsening, housing crisis in NSW:
- Through immigration, the NSW population is increasing by over 15,000 people each month (source: ABS);
- The average growth in the number of properties rented since September 2023 is 218 per month (source: NSW Rental Bonds Board);
- The total number of dwelling units approved in NSW fell by a disastrous 18.8% in June 2024, including a 19% fall in private houses.
REINSW CEO Tim McKibbin explained:
“The housing crisis continues to deteriorate on the back of a perfect storm of inhibitive taxation, approval delays and rental reforms which discourage investment
Demand is rising fast and the supply gap is widening at an increasing rate.
These are perfect storm conditions which must be reversed now.
To do so, a new approach is needed. Government must stop driving investors out of the residential market through anti-landlord reforms. These reforms reduce rental supply and compound the dire situation for tenants.
Government must urgently consider property taxation reform. The cost of new property is inflated by 40% through taxes and charges imposed by various levels of Government. It’s preventing new supply at a time when we desperately need more homes.
Delays in development approvals must be eradicated. Councils which fail to meet their housing quotas should have their planning powers revoked by the NSW Government. We have run out of time for excuses.
Key trends that will shape Sydney’s housing market in 2024
Overall, the Sydney property market saw home values defy predictions in 2023 - prices are now at new peaks and up 28.7% mince the beginning of CoVid in March 2020.
Sydney's strong pace of growth is remarkable in the face of the substantial deterioration in affordability that occurred with the sharp rise in interest rates.
It is also a testament to the strong demand aided by the pick-up in population growth, and limited supply that offset the effects of higher rates.
And, likely, the lack of supply of good properties at a time of increasing demand from homebuyers and investors and strong immigration will push Sydney property values higher throughout this year.
However, the Sydney property market will remain fragmented with the more affluent suburbs where people's incomes are higher, and homeowners have substantial equity in their properties outperforming the cheaper suburbs which are being harder hit by the rising cost of living and interest rates.
Top 10 NSW suburbs where property has earned more than the average worker.
Property prices in New South Wales grew 9.6% over the last year and the top performers are all located in Sydney’s most affluent areas, but western suburbs also made the very top of the list.
The eastern suburbs of Bellevue Hill and Vaucluse saw the highest year-on-year growth in property values, with an average increase of more than a million dollars.
Meanwhile, in the inner-west regions, houses in Strathfield and Abbotsford saw year-on-year price growth of $447,417 and $401,327, respectively.
Also out west of the CBD is Oatlands near Parramatta, which earned $312,909 for the year, and West Ryde and nearby Melrose Park which notched up $305,455 and $301,676 in price rises respectively.
Further down the affordability scale, houses in Condell Park and Wiley Park in Sydney's southwest still outperformed the average Australian wage, growing by $99,953 and $98,507 respectively.
Top 10 property earners in Sydney
| Suburb | Region | AVM 12 months ago | Current AVM | Change ($) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bellevue Hill | Sydney - Eastern Suburbs | $7,917,472 | $9,230,311 | $1,312,840 |
| Vaucluse | Sydney - Eastern Suburbs | $7,957,341 | $8,980,058 | $1,022,717 |
| Dover Heights | Sydney - Eastern Suburbs | $6,137,873 | $6,944,833 | $806,960 |
| Rose Bay | Sydney - Eastern Suburbs | $5,620,247 | $6,125,406 | $505,159 |
| Strathfield | Sydney - Inner West | $3,114,452 | $3,561,869 | $447,417 |
| North Bondi | Sydney - Eastern Suburbs | $4,083,836 | $4,512,973 | $429,137 |
| South Coogee | Sydney - Eastern Suburbs | $3,375,920 | $3,802,614 | $426,695 |
| Bronte | Sydney - Eastern Suburbs | $5,034,836 | $5,448,932 | $414,096 |
| Abbotsford | Sydney - Inner West | $2,753,167 | $3,154,494 | $401,327 |
| Clontarf | Sydney - Northern Beaches | $4,977,224 | $5,378,500 | $401,276 |
Source: PropTrack / realestate.com.au
- Also read:Latest property price forecasts for 2024 revealed. What’s ahead in our housing markets in the next year or two?
- Also read:Melbourne property market forecast for 2024
- Also read:Sydney property market forecast for 2024
- Also read:Brisbane’s property market forecast for 2024
- Also read:This week’s Australian Property Market Update – Latest Data, State by State September 24th 2024
Sydney’s housing market - the forecast for 2024
Sydney’s property market ended 2023 strongly, but signs of softer market conditions as the pace of price growth and clearance rates eased through the end of 2023 divides the experts on their 2024 forecasts.
Here are some of the most recent forecasts:
- ANZ Bank forecasts Sydney property values could rise 6-7% in 2024
- CBA forecast Sydney property values could rise 4% in 2024
- NAB forecast Sydney property values could rise 5% in 2024
- Westpac forecast Sydney property values could rise 6% in 2024
- SQM forecasts Sydney property values could fall up to 4% in 2024
- PropTrack forecast Sydney property values could rise 5% in 2024
Oxford Economics recently made the following forecasts of where Sydney house prices will be in 3 years time.
3-year property price forecast (by June 2027)
| City | Median price | Total price growth | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Houses | Units | Houses | Units | |
| Sydney | $1.93M | $1.09M | 18% | 22% |
| Combined capitals | $1.34M | $0.87M | 20% | 21% |
Source: Oxford Economics, PriceFinder
As buyers and sellers realise that we have reached a peak of interest rates and that inflation is coming under control and consumer confidence returns, buyer and seller activity will pick up.
So I currently see a window of opportunity to get into the property market before the crowd does.
If you look back at previous cycles, when the market turned property prices surged rapidly – look at what happened in the post-Covid property rebound in 2020 or in 2019 when the market suddenly turned after the Federal election.
Of course, those who acted then and purchased quality investment-grade properties are possibly of thousands of dollars ahead and have set themselves up for financial security.
The media are catching on to what’s happening and reporting more good news property stories.
This means the window of opportunity will close sooner rather than later as more homebuyers and investors into the market.
What we do know though, as I mentioned above, is that the flight to quality will continue so investment-grade properties in A-grade Sydney locations will remain in strong demand and are likely to outperform in the medium term.
You can read our Brisbane housing market update here.
