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This week’s Australian Property Market Update – Latest Data, State by State February 27th 2024 - featured image
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This week’s Australian Property Market Update – Latest Data, State by State February 27th 2024

key takeaways

Key takeaways

Australia’s housing markets are off to a strong start this year, with easing inflation and the prospect of an earlier than expected rate cut buoying vendor hopes and buyer appetites for property.

An unprecedented late summer rush of auctions has failed to significantly slow down buyer activity with most capitals reporting positive results for sellers last weekend, showing the depth of our housing markets.

Our combined capital cities have increased in value by 10.2% over the last year. That's very different to the pessimistic forecasts made by the RBA and many of the bank economists only 12 months ago of double digit price falls.

And it's likely property prices and rents are going to keep increasing throughout 2024, albeit more slowly.

Sydney property prices remained flat over the last week but increased 0.3% over the last month and are 10.3% higher than they were 12 months ago.

Melbourne property prices increased 0.1% over the last week, but remained flat over the last month, and are  3.9%  higher than they were 12 months ago.

Brisbane property prices increased by 0.2% over the last week, increased 0.9% over the last month and are 15.4% higher than they were 12 months ago.

Overall, Australian capital dwelling prices increased by 0.5% over the last month and are now 10.2% higher than they were 12 months ago.

This current property cycle has been driven by an undersupply of good properties relative to current demand pushing up property values and rents.

Australia’s housing is so horribly undersupplied that I've rarely encountered a supply-demand inflection point like this.

Locating a good property to buy or rent is more elusive than finding the missing car keys.

And it’s only going to get worse.

The renewed level of confidence returning to our housing markets was shown once again by this week's strong auction clearance rates with demand from buyers keeping up with the increased number of properties put to auction.

Easing inflation and the prospect of an earlier-than-expected rate cut is buoying vendor hopes and buyer appetites for property.

However beneath the headline result housing market performance remains diverse around the country.

Moving forward, demand is going to outstrip supply for some time to come as we experience record levels of immigration at a time when we’re not building anywhere as many properties as we require.

At the same time, the cost of construction of delivering new dwellings will keep increasing not only because of supply chain issues and the lack of sufficient skilled labour but also because builders and developers will only commence new projects if they are financially viable and currently new projects will need to come on line at considerably higher prices than the current market price,

It will be much the same for our rental market where the supply / demand equation is so far out of balance that we’ve experienced an unprecedented rental crisis with historically low vacancy rates and skyrocketing rents and this will continue into 2024.

On the auction front, the strong run of auction results continued to play out last week with a preliminary capital city clearance rate of 73.5%, although the early success rate has shown a subtle fade over the past two weeks, down from 76.2% over the week ending February 11th.

The relatively high clearance rates have occurred alongside a consistent rise in auction volumes, with 2,775 auctions held last week.

See Corelogic's full auction report below.

Property Cycle
Corelogic reports that:

  • Sydney property prices remained flat over the last week but increased 0.3% over the last month and are 10.3% higher than they were 12 months ago.
  • Melbourne property prices increased 0.1% over the last week,  but remained flat over the last month, and are  3.9%  higher than they were 12 months ago.
  • Brisbane property prices increased by 0.2% over the last week, increased 0.9% over the last month and are 15.4% higher than they were 12 months ago.

Overall, Australian capital dwelling prices increased by 0.5% over the last month and are now 10.2% higher than they were 12 months ago.

Clearly, the property cycle is moving on driven by an undersupply of good properties relative to increasing demand.

 

Weekly Change 26 February

Monthly Change 26 February

12 Month Change 26 February

Source: CoreLogic February 26th 2024

Of course, these are "overall" figures - there is not one Sydney or Melbourne or Brisbane property market.

And various segments of each market are performing differently.

The more expensive parts of our capital cities are likely to outperform this year as the local residence will, in general, have more equity in the properties they are selling, and they won't be as sensitive to high interest rates and the high cost of living as the outer and new suburbs.

Monthly Change In Hvi 05 February

To help keep you up-to-date with all that's happening in property, here is my updated weekly analysis of data and charts as of 5th February 2024 provided by CoreLogic, and realestate.com.au.

Property asking prices

Property asking prices are a useful leading indicator for housing markets - giving a good indication of what's ahead.

Here is the latest data available for February 2024.

Sydney

Property type Price ($) Weekly Change Monthly Change % Annual % change
All Houses 1,893,604 -26.854 2.8% 10.8%
All Units 799,976 -0.977 0.5% 7.1%
Combined 1,451,461 -16.449 -2.1% 9.6%

Source: SQM Research

Melbourne

Property type Price ($) Weekly Change Monthly Change % Annual % change
All Houses 1,226.978 -3.388 -1.1% 4.5%
All Units 600,683 1.807 0.9% 1.3%
Combined 1,031.892 -1.770 -0.8% 3.7%

Source: SQM Research

Brisbane

Property type Price ($) Weekly Change Monthly Change % Annual % change
All Houses 1,047.989 10.049 2.3% 11.1%
All Units 578,131 1.969 0.7% 14.8%
Combined 931,234 8.041 2.1% 11.5%

Source: SQM Research

Perth

Property type Price ($) Weekly Change Monthly Change % Annual % change
All Houses 943,686 5.526 2.6% 15.4%
All Units 485,507 -1.207 2.8% 13.3%
Combined 824,789 3.779 2.6% 15.4%

Source: SQM Research

Adelaide

Property type Price ($) Weekly Change Monthly Change % Annual % change
All Houses 864,327 1.028 1.4% 11.4%
All Units 434,285 -3.885 -1.0% 18.3%
Combined 778,027 -0.260 1.4% 10.1%

Source: SQM Research

Canberra

Property type Price ($) Weekly Change Monthly Change % Annual % change
All Houses 1,202.681 2.179 1.0% 14.9%
All Units 594,089 -2.839 -1.2% -0.3%
Combined 982,803 0.366 0.5% 11.0%

Source: SQM Research

Darwin

Property type Price ($) Weekly Change Monthly Change % Annual % change
All Houses 666,399 3.401 0.4% -0.9%
All Units 377,010 1.323 1.1% 0.4%
Combined 552,930 2.586 0.6% -1.6%

Source: SQM Research

Hobart

Property type Price ($) Weekly Change Monthly Change % Annual % change
All Houses 802,150 5.668 0.9% 0.9%
All Units 506,520 -5.248 1.5% 8.3%
Combined 757,788 4.030 0.9% 1.5%

Source: SQM Research

National

Property type Price ($) Weekly Change Monthly Change % Annual % change
All Houses 904,855 8.275 1.0% 8.2%
All Units 532,944 0.258 0.7% 5.8%
Combined 825,488 6.564 1.0% 7.8%

Source: SQM Research

Cap City Average

Property type Price ($) Weekly Change Monthly Change % Annual % change
All Houses 1,333.234 -12.806 -0.6% 9.2%
All Units 664,714 -0.458 0.5% 6.6%
Combined 1,137.274 -9.187 -0.4% 8.5%

Source: SQM Research

The value of property asking prices as a leading indicator for housing markets is quite significant.

In fact it's more valuable than median prices which can be quite misleading.

Let's delve into why this is the case and how it impacts the real estate market.

  1. Early Market Sentiment Indicator: Asking prices often reflect the current sentiment of sellers in the real estate market.
    If sellers are confident, they might set higher asking prices, anticipating strong demand.
    Conversely, if sellers are uncertain or perceive a market downturn, they might lower their asking prices to attract buyers.
    This makes asking prices a real-time indicator of market sentiment, often preceding changes in actual sales prices.
  2. Predictive of Future Price Trends: Trends in asking prices can be predictive of where the actual property prices are headed.
    For example, a consistent rise in asking prices over a period can signal an upcoming rise in transaction prices.
  3. Impact of Economic Factors: Economic factors such as interest rates, employment rates, and broader economic health influence asking prices.
    For instance, changes in the Reserve Bank of Australia's policies or shifts in the job market can quickly reflect in the asking prices, providing insights into how these factors are influencing the housing market.
  4. Regional Variations: In a diverse market like Australia's, asking prices can also provide insights into regional disparities.
    For instance, the property markets in Melbourne and Sydney might behave differently from those in Brisbane or Perth. Asking prices can give early indications of these regional trends.
  5. Influence of Supply and Demand: Asking prices are also a response to the balance of supply and demand in the market.
    In areas with limited supply and high demand, asking prices tend to be higher and vice versa.

However, it's important to note that while asking prices are a valuable indicator, they should not be used in isolation.

Other factors like actual sales prices, time on the market, auction clearance rates, and economic conditions also play crucial roles in understanding the property market dynamics.

READ MORE: The latest median property prices in Australia’s major cities

Last weekend's auction report

Combined capital city preliminary clearance rate of 73.5%

The strong run of auction results continued to play out last week with a preliminary capital city clearance rate of 73.5%, although the early success rate has shown a subtle fade over the past two weeks, down from 76.2% over the week ending February 11th.

The relatively high clearance rates have occurred alongside a consistent rise in auction volumes, with 2,775 auctions held last week; the largest number of auctions so far this year and up 33% on the week prior (2,091) and 14% higher than the same week a year ago (2,429).

Capital City Auction Statistics 26 February

After holding above 80% over the past two weeks, Sydney’s preliminary clearance rate slipped a little to 77.3% across 981 auctions.

Melbourne’s preliminary clearance rate also came down to 70.6%, the lowest so far this year but still well above levels recorded late last year.

Across the smaller capitals, Brisbane recorded the busiest auction week, with 168 homes taken to auction, followed by Adelaide (145), Canberra (85), Perth (6) and Tasmania (2).

Adelaide recorded the highest preliminary clearance rate at 87.9%, followed by Brisbane and Canberra, with early success rates of 72.8% and 57.1% respectively.

Two of the four auctions reported in Perth so far were successful, while the one auction reported in Tasmania was unsuccessful.

City Clearance Rate Total Auctions CoreLogic auction results Cleared Auctions Uncleared Auctions
Sydney 77.3% 981 753 582 171
Melbourne 70.6% 1,338 1,097 775 322
Brisbane 72.8% 168 125 91 34
Adelaide 87.9% 145 91 80 11
Perth n/a 6 4 2 2
Tasmania n/a 2 1 0 1
Canberra 57.1% 85 63 36 27
Weighted Average 73.5% 2,775 2,134 1,566 568

Source: CoreLogic

Our rental markets

Our rental markets have been tightening further over the last few months, with vacancy rates for both houses and apartments extremely low across the country and asking rents rising rapidly.

Annual Change In Rental Rates To January 2024

Gross Rental Yields January 2024

Asking rents across the capital cities for houses had been rising in annual terms in the “double digits”, while for units, new asking rents are rising at faster rates, at over 20% in Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane.

The recently released National Accounts showed that Australia’s population has grown by around 620,000 people in the past financial year.

That’s the highest number in history and a hundred thousand more than what the May federal budget projected.

This record 2.8% expansion in the 15 plus age group of our population is placing a great strain on our rental markets.

The number of overseas students and also people on graduate visas in Australia has increased by just over three hundred thousand in the last financial year.

In particular rents have been rebounding across inner-city rental markets (popular with international students) after slumping during the pandemic when international borders were closed. 

While the pace of rental growth is likely to slow down, with current vacancy rates rents will continue to increase as there is a minimal new supply of properties set to enter the market in the medium-term future.

Sydney

Property Type Rent ($) Weekly change Monthly change  12 Months change
All Houses $1,044.29 3.71 1.0% 13.0%
All Units $694,68 1.32 0.6% 12.2%
Combined $836,69 2.29 0.8% 12.6%

Source: SQM Research

Melbourne

Property Type Rent ($) Weekly change Monthly change  12 Months change
All Houses $735,64 -1.64 1.0% 15.7%
All Units $545,69 5.31 3.5% 12.3%
Combined $623,93 2.44 2.3% 14.0%

Source: SQM Research

Brisbane

Property Type Rent ($) Weekly change Monthly change 12 Months change
All Houses $721,62 3.38 1.8% 8.5%
All Units $568,80 0.20 0.7% 13.7%
Combined $652,85 1.95 1.4% 10.6%

Source: SQM Research

Perth

Property Type Rent ($) Weekly change Monthly change 12 Months  change
All Houses $780,35 0.65 1.1% 18.7%
All Units $573,52 -0.52 1.3% 17.9%
Combined $693,88 0.16 1.2% 18.5%

Source: SQM Research

Adelaide

Property Type Rent $) Weekly change Monthly change 12 Months change
All Houses $640,56 3.44 0.9% 14.8%
All Units $453,23 3.77 -0.3% 13.3%
Combined $576,02 3.56 0.6% 14.5%

Source: SQM Research

Canberra

Property Type Rent ($) Weekly change Monthly change 12 Months change
All Houses $754,72 3.28 1.1% -1.9%
All Units $572,10 1.90 2.2% 1.5%
Combined $655,72 2.53 1.6% -0.3%

Source: SQM Research

Darwin

Property Type Rent ($) Weekly change Monthly change 12 Months change
All Houses $724,87 -12.87 -0.7% 1.2%
All Units $497,62 -7.62 -0.1% 8.2%
Combined $589,51 -9.75 -0.4% 4.7%

Source: SQM Research

Hobart

Property Type Rent 9$) Weekly change Monthly change 12 Months change
All Houses $544,65 -0.65 -2.3% -0.3%
All Units $462,65 -5.65 -1.2% -2.4%
Combined $511,69 -2.66 -1.9% -1.1%

Source: SQM Research

National

Property Type Rent ($) Weekly change Monthly change 12 Months change
All Houses $687,00 -1.00 0.1% 7.7%
All Units $528 -2.00 -0.4% 9.1%
Combined $613,07 -1.46 -0.1% 8.3%

Source: SQM Research

Cap City Average

Property Type Rent ($) Weekly change Monthly change 12 Months change
All Houses $831 5.00 0.5% 12.6%
All Units $615 3.00 1.3% 12.2%
Combined $715,95 3.93 0.9% 12.5%

Source: SQM Research

Vendor metrics


As the following chart shows, houses are still being snapped up quickly by eager buyers.

Median Days On Market 3 Months To January 2024

At a national level, properties are taking slightly longer to sell than they were during the property boom of 2020 and 2021.

However, the number of days to sell a property is still relatively low (a sign of the tight supply situation for good properties), and vendor discounting is still at very low levels.

In general, houses are selling quicker than apartments, but the shortage of good properties on the market is seeing A-grade properties selling quickly with minimal discounting.

Median Vendor Discount 3 Months To January 2024

ALSO READ: Latest property price forecasts revealed. What’s ahead in our housing markets in the next year or two?

About Michael is a director of Metropole Property Strategists who help their clients grow, protect and pass on their wealth through independent, unbiased property advice and advocacy. He's once again been voted Australia's leading property investment adviser and one of Australia's 50 most influential Thought Leaders. His opinions are regularly featured in the media.
75 comments

Hi Michael, I am an Australian citizen living overseas. We left Australia in 1996 and have a property in Sydney. We have a great estate agent who has managed the property for us. We would really like to sell it soon, but the CGT for non-residents sel ...Read full version

1 reply

Yikes Perth just 13 days to sell a property. Yields through the roof and we are about to have a substantial period of Capital growth due to the "Rising market" phase on the property clock.

1 reply

Hi Michael. We have a Qld propert being rented out for 600 pw purchased less than a year ago with tennants in place. We are being told in the current market we can get 720 to 790. This would be a huge hike for the lovely tennants. We are currently ...Read full version

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