Please use the menu below to navigate to any article section:
Sydney and Melbourne’s property markets are coping well with the post lockdown surge in listings of properties for sale.
But there are clear signs that house price growth is slowing down in our two big capital cities.
With only a few days to go, Sydney house prices have risen 0.9% so far in November, well down on the 1.5% rise last month and the average price gain of 2.5% monthly average to October this year.
With volumes ramping up significantly in Melbourne, prices have risen 0.6% after last month’s 1.0% and the 1.5% monthly year-to-date average to October.
Meanwhile, Brisbane-Gold Coast and Adelaide prices continued to rise strongly.
Prices are up 2.7% this month after 2.5% through October in Brisbane-Gold Coast and 2.3% in Adelaide after 2.0% in October.
After dipping 0.1% in October, prices have nudged fractionally higher in Perth.
Not surprisingly auction clearance rates slipped on the weekend in the two largest capital cities where buyers have more choice of properties than I’ve had for a long, long time.
Of course, the big news now is the recently discovered Omicron Covid strain which has already made its way into Australia and markets will be waiting for news, especially on transmissibility and any vaccine resistance.
Here’s what happened to property prices…
- Sydney property prices have kept moving higher, up another 0.1% in the last week, up 0.9% for the month to date, and up 25.8% over the last 12 months.
- Melbourne house prices increased 0.1% over the last week, up 0.6% for the month to date, and up 16.2% over the last 12 months.
- Brisbane house prices increased 0.9% over the last week, up 2.7% for the month to date, and 26.4% over the last year.
The number of properties for sale in Australia is still in short supply
The supply of properties for sale just can’t keep up with demand.
In many locations around Australia for every new property coming onto the market for sale, 1.4 properties are being sold.
Capital city demand continues at a vigorous rate, with buyers out in force – owner-occupiers, investors, and first home buyers – at a time when available supply struggling to keep up.
The table below shows how the stock of advertised properties is well below year-ago levels across all capital cities.
At the same time “time on market” continues to decline.
These are signs that property values will continue to rise moving forward.
To help keep you up-to-date with all that’s happening in property, here is my updated weekly analysis of data and charts as of November 29th provided by Corelogic, and realestate.com.au.
Monthly Listings Report
Across the combined capital cities, there was the highest number of new listings on record, with new listings across the capital cities jumping 21.9% MoM, according to the PropTrack Listings Report November 2021.
Nationally, it was the busiest month for new listings since October 2018, with new listings up 16.3% MoM.
While October is a seasonally strong month for new listings, the easing of restrictions in Melbourne, Sydney, and Canberra after months of lockdowns, as well as the return of in-person property inspections in mid-September, supported seller confidence and brought many sellers back to the market who had been hesitant to list.
These factors drove a wave of new listings in Melbourne (+35% MoM), Canberra (+30.2%), and Sydney (+26.2%).
- New listings lifted sharply in Sydney (26.2% MoM) to record levels in October, following strong growth in September, as well. New listings also lifted 14% (MoM) in regional NSW.
- New listings surged 35.0% (MoM) in Melbourne in October as sellers continued to return to the market after in-person inspections resumed in mid-September. October is also typically the seasonal peak of the spring selling season in Melbourne.
- Buyers searching in Brisbane had more choice in October, with new listings picking up 7.4% month-on-month. October is seasonally a strong month for new listings in Brisbane.
- New listings lifted in Adelaide (7.5% MoM) in October, consistent with what is typically one of the strongest months of the year for new listings. This new supply coming to market lifted total listings 5.0% (MoM) in October.
- New listings picked up across WA in October, with new listings in Perth up 13.0% month-on-month and 4.6% in regional WA.
- New listings declined in Hobart (-7.1% MoM), bringing total listings down 1.9% month on month. While above the lows seen a few months ago, available stock remains very limited in Hobart, with total listings down 30% compared to a year ago.
- New listings in Darwin moderated in October, down 10.3% (MoM), after strong growth in September.
- New listings in Canberra jumped 30.2% month-on-month in October, after a 42.1% increase in September. These increases come as seller confidence returned amid eased restrictions on in-person inspections in mid-September.
Sales up as post-lockdown buzz grips market
Strong demand drives the time taken to sell a property to its fastest level in at least five years, while average views per listing surge to a new historic high, according to the PropTrack Housing Market Indicators Report.
Easing restrictions and the spring selling season supported strong activity in the housing market in October.
Nationally, weekly sales volumes reached their highest level this year at the end of October and volumes are much higher right around the country than at the same time last year.
Indicators of buyer demand show property seekers are extremely motivated.
Search volumes continued to pick up in October and reached record highs in mid-October.
Strong competition from buyers has seen the median number of days on-site – the median time a property is listed on realestate.com.au before we are advised it has sold – reach its fastest level on record.
In October, the median time a property was listed was just 31 days, a full week faster than in September.
Days on site declined particularly sharply in Melbourne as its lockdown began to ease and in-person property inspections resumed in mid-September.
This rapid pace of sales is consistent with strong demand from buyers and a relatively limited stock of houses available for sale – particularly in regional areas.
What’s happening in our property markets?
Median property prices
Vendor metrics confirm that despite the lockdowns, we’re in a seller’s market with the number of days to sell the property very low (a sign of the tight supply situation), and vendor discounting (it’s easier for them to sell) at very low levels.
In general, houses are selling better than apartments, but the shortage of good properties on the market is seeing properties selling quickly with minimal discounting.
Our Rental Markets
While rental growth is slowing, we’ve still experienced the highest rental growth in over a decade.
Growth in rental rates eased over the second quarter of 2021, with the national rental index rising by 2.1% over the 3 months to June compared to a 3.2% rise over the March quarter.
While rental growth has slowed over the recent months and quarters, the latest figures take national rental rates 6.6% higher over the year; the highest annual growth in dwelling rents since January 2009.
Regional rents continued to outpace capital city rents over the second quarter of 2021, with regional dwelling rents rising by 2.7% against a 1.9% rise in capital city rents.
This was a 1.4 percentage point reduction in the rate of growth quarter on quarter for the combined regionals, and a 1 percentage point reduction for the combined capital cities.
Despite the easing in growth in recent months, regional Australia recorded an annual rate of rental growth of 11.3% in June 2021.
Last weekend’s auction clearance rates
The volume of scheduled auctions today reached new highs across Sydney, Canberra, and Adelaide, marking the busiest auction week for the combined capitals since CoreLogic records commenced in 2008.
Dr. Andrew Wilson of My Housing Market reported Canberra as the stand-out performer with a preliminary auction clearance rate of 87.6% from 112 auctions.
Other preliminary clearance rates (as reported by Dr. Andrew Wilson’s Auction Insider) were:-
- Adelaide – 77.4%
- Sydney – 77.2%
- Brisbane– 72%
- Melbourne – 69.8%
Source of graphs and data: CoreLogic, REA, and Dr. Andrew Wilson – My Housing Market 29th of November 2021.
Subscribe & don’t miss a single episode of Michael Yardney’s podcast
Hear Michael & a select panel of guest experts discuss property investment, success & money related topics. Subscribe now, whether you're on an Apple or Android handset.
Need help listening to Michael Yardney’s podcast from your phone or tablet?
We have created easy to follow instructions for you whether you're on iPhone / iPad or an Android device.
Prefer to subscribe via email?
Join Michael Yardney's inner circle of daily subscribers and get into the head of Australia's best property investment advisor and a wide team of leading property researchers and commentators.