Key takeaways
Australia's unemployment rate held steady at 4.1% in March 2025, staying near historic lows.
Retail sales rose modestly by 0.2% in February, after a 0.3% increase in January, and are up 3.6% year-on-year despite inflation and cost-of-living pressures.
Despite positive economic indicators in jobs and retail sectors, the Australian share market has tumbled around 9.1% from its recent peak.
Auction clearance rates across capital cities improved over the Easter week despite fewer listings.
We’re living in interesting times with share markets tumbling, consumer confidence spluttering, and talking about countries falling into recession and the thought that central banks will need to drop interest rates significantly to stimulate economies around the world.
Obviously, it’s still early days; however, over the last week, several economic indicators have been released, which the Reserve Bank will be taking into account when making its next interest rate decision in May.
In today’s Property Insiders chat with Dr Andrew Wilson, we discuss the resilience of Australia’s economy, starting with the latest labour force data showing unemployment remains steady at just 4.1%.
Despite global uncertainty, our jobs market continues to hold firm, with over 308,000 new positions added in the past year and participation rates at historic highs.
While the fundamentals are strong, there’s a fascinating divergence playing out.
Retail sales continue to edge upward, suggesting that consumer sentiment remains solid—yet the share market has taken a hit, spooked by sensationalist media coverage of potential tariff changes.
We’ll also take you behind the headlines of last weekend’s auction clearance rates, which climbed across most capitals, even with fewer listings due to the Easter long weekend.
Jobless and participation rates are still low
Australia’s labour market continues to show remarkable resilience, defying expectations in the face of global economic uncertainty.
What’s this week?
Property insiders chat as Dr Wilson breaks down the latest ABS data showing the national unemployment rate held steady at 4.1% in March 2025—unchanged from February and still near historic lows.
Over the month, an additional 32,000 jobs were created, while the number of unemployed only nudged up slightly by 3,000 people.
On an annual basis, total employment has surged by 308,000 jobs, representing a 2.2% rise, which clearly signals that businesses are still hiring and the economy continues to expand.
Perhaps even more telling is the stability in the participation rate, which remained at 66.8%.
This indicates that Australians are still confident about entering or remaining in the workforce.
The jobless figures aren't being artificially suppressed by people giving up on finding work; rather, people are still actively participating in the job market, and for the most part, finding employment.
Western Australia continues to lead the nation with the lowest jobless rate at just 3.6%, showcasing a strong regional economy buoyed by mining, construction, and infrastructure activity.
This steady labour market is critical for property investors and homeowners alike.
Job security is critical for our housing markets - from borrowing power and consumer confidence to housing demand.
When people are secure in their employment and see wage growth potential, they’re more likely to upgrade homes, invest in property, or feel confident about entering the market.
These strong fundamentals provide a solid floor under our property markets, even as media headlines continue to stoke fears of volatility or economic slowdown.
Of course, we can’t ignore the broader backdrop.
While jobs data remains encouraging, other sectors such as the share market are telling a different story, with investor sentiment rocked by media-driven fears like tariff concerns.
Dr. Andrew Wilson explains that this divergence between the real economy and market noise is precisely why it’s so important to focus on the data that actually matters.
And right now, Australia’s labour market is sending a very clear signal: we’re still standing strong.
- Also read:What the Latest Data Reveals About Australia’s Housing Future | Property Insiders
- Also read:Perth housing market update | April 2025
- Also read:Adelaide housing market update | April 2025
- Also read:Rental vacancy rates tighten once more ahead of the holiday season | SQM Research
- Also read:Brisbane housing market update | April 2025
February retail sales are still rising
Adding further weight to the narrative of economic resilience is the steady growth in retail sales.
Watch this week’s Property Insider video to hear Dr. Andrew Wilson’s analysis of ABS data showing national retail turnover rose by 0.2% in February—building on a 0.3% increase in January—and climbing 3.6% year-on-year.
That might sound modest on the surface, but given the high inflationary base and cost-of-living pressures Australians have been grappling with, this continued upward momentum is a strong signal of consumer confidence.
Retail spending remains robust, even in the face of slowing migration growth and falling inflation, suggesting that households are still willing—and able—to spend.
This spending strength is particularly important for property markets because it signals underlying economic vitality.
When consumers are feeling optimistic, they’re more likely to engage in big-ticket purchases, including property.
Dr. Wilson points out that retail turnover levels remain elevated compared to pre-pandemic norms, and lower interest rates are likely to further fuel this trend.
In essence, Australians aren't hunkering down; they’re cautiously optimistic—and that optimism often precedes improved housing activity.
While key indicators like jobs and retail sales are flashing green, the Australian share market has taken a “tumble”, and interestingly, not due to any clear economic deterioration.
Watch this week’s Property Insiders chat to hear Dr. Andrew Wilson explain that the sharp downturn in share prices has been largely driven by fear rather than fundamentals.
Media fuelled scare campaigns, particularly around potential tariffs and global trade disruptions, have spooked investors and triggered widespread selling across the boards.
It’s a classic example of sentiment getting ahead of the data.
Despite strong labour market conditions, robust consumer spending, falling inflation, and a property market showing signs of renewed energy, the share market remains down by 9.1% from its peak.
This disconnect between economic reality and investor sentiment highlights just how sensitive the share markets are to headlines—especially those framed around fear and uncertainty.
Unfortunately, when fear dominates the narrative, even strong economic signals can get drowned out.
Dr. Wilson rightly notes that lower interest rates and easing inflation should, under normal conditions, buoy both share and property markets. Yet the sharemarket is buckling under the weight of perception rather than performance.
For property investors, this serves as a timely reminder not to let short-term volatility in financial markets cloud long-term strategic decisions. Unlike shares, property tends to move in slower, more predictable cycles, and is less reactive to headline-driven shocks.
So, while the share market might be stumbling on speculation, our housing markets remain on surprisingly stable footing.
Investors would be wise to separate the noise from the news and focus on what the hard data is telling us.
Auction clearance generally higher over Easter Week
Auction clearance rates were generally higher in most capitals over the past week, from predictably fewer choices for buyers and less competition for sellers, with the usual low listing numbers over the Easter holiday week.
Auction markets will be quieter again over the next week, reflecting the Anzac Day holiday long weekend break.
