Is that all there is? Is the recession really over? + Latest property data | Property Insiders [VIDEO]

Some people are calling this the weirdest recession.

Only last week I explained how we’re in the middle of a pandemic, unemployment is rising, yet our housing markets are remaining resilient. Market

But now there are clear signs that the modest coronavirus-induced housing correction is coming to an end and that the housing markets are on the move again.

And earlier this week Reserve Bank deputy governor Guy Debelle said the RBA believes the country’s first recession in three decades is now over.

The RBA thinks our recession ended in the September quarter because “as best as we can tell the growth elsewhere in the country was more than the drag from Victoria”.

And this week with the Melbourne lockdown easing, consumer and business sentiment have been buoyed once again.

Of course, many of us are anticipating that at its board meeting next Tuesday, Melbourne Cup day, the RBA will drop its cash and three-year rate targets by a further 0.15 percentage points to 0.1 per cent.

So it looks like we’ll have a perfect storm developing for our property markets next year when you also consider the various Federal and State government incentives and proposed spending.

In today’s Property Insider video I discuss all this plus the latest property data with Dr. Andrew Wilson, chief economist of My Housing Market.

The recession may be over: RBA

The RBA deputy governor Guy Debelle told the Senate said that it appeared the Australian economy grew through the September quarter.

The Reserve Bank believes the nation is out of recession with the economy returning to growth in the September quarter, as the economic impact of the 111 days of lockdown in Victoria might not be a deep as feared and was outweighed by recoveries in other states.

“As best as we can tell, the growth elsewhere in the country was more than the drag from Victoria, and possibly the drag from Victoria was a little less than what we guessed back in August” Dr Debelle said.

Australia recorded its first technical recession in 29 years in the first half of the year after posting falls in the gross domestic product of 0.3 per cent in the March ­quarter and 7 per cent in the June quarter.

But as you will hear Dr. Andrew Wilson explain in the video, this was a “Clayton’s Recession” caused by a health issue rather than fundamental economic issues.

Did Melbourne property values really drop 14%

A recent report from electronic settlements platform PEXA found that from January to September 2020, the overall median settlement price fell 14 per cent in Victoria and 9 per cent in New South Wales.

This is just another example of incorrectly interpreting data.

These figures are a reflection of the types of properties that transacted this year rather than the overall changing value of property venues.

Sure, the median price of properties transacted dropped, because in general, it was lower in properties transacted this year.

Many homeowners with higher-end price properties, had substantial equity in their home having bought them, 10, 15 or 20 years ago and they did not want to or need to sell in the uncertain 2020 property market.

Consumer confidence

The weekly ANZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Index hit an 8-month high of 99.7 points last week – a smidgen below the 100 point level last seen on March 15 – the level that separates optimists from pessimists.

Consumer Confidence

The improvement in the Aussie virus backdrop – especially in Melbourne – saw all five major components of the ANZ-Roy Morgan sentiment gauge lift last week.

In fact, consumer views on ‘current financial conditions’ lifted most – up 3.5 per cent – ahead of an expected Reserve Bank interest rate cut on Melbourne Cup Day.

And views on whether it’s a ‘good time to buy a household item’ rose by 0.4 per cent to an 18-week high of 5 points.

Behind the headline unemployment figures

Watch this week’s video as Dr. Andrew Wilson takes us behind the headline unemployment figures to help us better understand what’s really going on.

At first glance, it seems like the 3 big capital cities have similar unemployment rates.

Jobless

Over 200,000 jobs have disappeared from Melbourne, which is not surprising after close to 4 months of lockdown.

However, with many Melburnians no longer looking for a job and the participation rate dropping, this means the unemployment level of 6.9% does not really reflect what’s happening on the ground.

Melbourne Jobs

 

This week’s property data provided by Dr. Andrew Wilson of My Housing Market

Watch our video above as Dr. Andrew Wilson gives his commentary on the following data: Andrew Wilson

Sydney

Auction clearance rates remained firm in Sydney last weekend.

At these levels, when close to 80% of properties put to auction sell under the hammer, price growth tends to follow.

Is this the bottom of the Sydney property market?

Sydney Weekend

And Sydney property sales remain strong, reflecting pent-up demand.

Real Time Sydney

Melbourne

With Melbourne buyers and agents now allowed to undertake inspections, more properties are being listed for sale in Melbourne, coming from a very low base.

Auctions have returned to Melbourne, even though in low but increasing numbers, and buyers are active in the market

Melbourne Weekend

With more Melbourne properties being listed for sale by auction, it’s likely that one of Melbourne’s favourite weekend pastimes, on-site auctions, will return with a vengance.

Melbourne Weekend

Melbourne property sales have surged, reflecting pent up demand.

Real Time Melbourne

Brisbane

And the Brisbane property market is performing very strongly with more sales last week than any other capital cities.

Real Time Brisbane

Newly listed homes for sale:

With consumer confidence picking up, vendors are more comfortable and many more homes have come on the market for sale over the last week, particularly in Victoria.

Watch our video as Dr. Andrew Wilson gives his commentary on the latest statisticss.

National Newly Listen

Now is the time to take action and set yourself for the opportunities that will present themselves as the market moves on

Metropole Team

If you’re wondering confused about the mixed messages for you are not alone.

However, you can trust the team at Metropole to provide you with direction, guidance, and results.

In challenging times like we are currently experiencing you need an advisor who takes a holistic approach to your wealth creation and that’s what you exactly what you get from the multi award-winning team at Metropole.

If you’re looking at buying your next home or investment property here’s 4 ways we can help you:

  1. Strategic property advice. – Allow us to build a Strategic Property Plan for you and your family.  Planning is bringing the future into the present so you can do something about it now!  This will give you direction, results, and more certainty. Click here to learn more
  2. Buyer’s agency – As Australia’s most trusted buyers’ agents we’ve been involved in over $3Billion worth of transactions creating wealth for our clients and we can do the same for you. Our on the ground teams in Melbourne, Sydney, and Brisbane bring you years of experience and perspective – that’s something money just can’t buy. We’ll help you find your next home or an investment-grade property.  Click here to learn how we can help you.
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Michael is a director of Metropole Property Strategists who help their clients grow, protect and pass on their wealth through independent, unbiased property advice and advocacy. He's once again been voted Australia's leading property investment adviser and one of Australia's 50 most influential Thought Leaders. His opinions are regularly featured in the media. Visit Metropole.com.au


'Is that all there is? Is the recession really over? + Latest property data | Property Insiders [VIDEO]' have 8 comments

    Avatar

    October 16, 2020 Joseph Battaglia

    Michael your optimistic views irrespective of the true underlying data is disconcerting.
    The government is covering up the reality of the situation, throwing money against the wall at all costs (hoping some will stick) and falsely propping up the economy whilst kicking the can down the road. The rhetoric from parties with bias/interest in the real estate market are also contributing to the propaganda that “things are ok and sentiment is up” – whilst reality is different.
    We are not leaders on the world stage, for our real property obsession, in fact we are almost ridiculed that we are a nation that increases their wealth through selling properties to each other increasing the price at each transaction.

    Its fiscally clear, we should allow the reset button to deflate this overvalued bubble and get back to reality. I mean seriously, some of these prices are ridiculous!

    Are we going the way of Japan?
    This QE is just irresponsible on all counts.
    Over $1T in debt for such a small economy… come on, who are we kidding.

    Reply

      Michael Yardney

      October 16, 2020 Michael Yardney

      You are right Joseph, many of our industries are on life support from the government at the moment. And while the property market was being supported by loan deferrals, they seem to be cleaning themselves up nicely. What is the alternative? Do you really want to see businesses go broke and people go hungry? Our government and those around the world have learned how to handle economic downturns. And spending our way out of a downturn is a valid economic argument

      Reply

    Avatar

    October 2, 2020 Dave

    Dear Michael. Your articles are interesting
    and usually very well written . However this one is full of a lot of spelling and sentence construction mistakes that in parts make it hard
    to follow . Take a look at where it says sh-t (Let me know if you need a proof reader ) 😉

    Reply

      Michael Yardney

      October 2, 2020 Michael Yardney

      Thanks for the heads up Dave – you are right lots of errors in this one. As I can talk faster than I can type I usually use voice to text, and it is pretty accurate. But clearly I missed a couple of bad bloopers this time.

      Reply

    Avatar

    July 24, 2020 Martin

    The RBA will print money. And has printed plenty of it already to fight covid-19. It just doesn’t give the money directly to the government. It prints new money and uses it to buy government bonds on the secondary market so that institutions can take a cut as they buy the newly issued bonds from the government So that the government can pay for jobkeeper and Then these institutions onsell them to the RBA for a markup.

    Reply

      Michael Yardney

      July 25, 2020 Michael Yardney

      There has been a lot of discussion recently about Modern Monetary Theory, which suggests central banks should print more money and then give (lend) it to the government, to help pay for it debts.
      This week RBA governor Philip Lowe said that he won’t do that (print extra money) instead the banks should borrow on the open market at the prevailing low interest rates because they can afford it.
      Rather than print more money he gave the Morrison government the green light to increase debt levels and lock in a larger budget deficit to support the economy during its recovery from the virus crisis

      Reply

    Avatar

    June 26, 2020 Alex P.

    While Dr Wilson may say that more sellers entering the market is an expression of confidence, the flip side is that it may be the smart money taking the opportunity to exit while prices are still holding up. If you drill down in the data is there a way to differentiate whether these are investment properties or owner occupied properties being sold and how does that relate to historical data. Second point is that government intervention has done a good job of addressing short term liquidity over the crisis but there have been no measures on a similar scale to address solvency, and solvency is what really matters after the liquidity tap has been turned off.

    Reply

      Michael Yardney

      June 26, 2020 Michael Yardney

      Alex, you are right on both counts.

      Our experience on the ground speaking to buyers, sellers and estate agents, is that there are very few distressed properties coming on the market at present.

      Similarly we do not believe the government is going to pull the rug out from under us in September after he’s gone to such an effort to support the economy and our markets

      Reply


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