Will we ever see a year like 2020 again?
Just when we thought we had this Coronavirus thingy under control look what’s happening in Sydney.
But at least we know that we are heading into a post-vaccine world in 2021. 
The outbreak of cases in New South Wales reminds us that we’re not out of the woods yet either with our health or economically.
However, over the last nine months in these weekly shows, we have argued that the impact of COVID-19 on the property markets would not be as severe as most commentators were suggesting and that the recovery would be relatively strong and fast.
Each week Dr. Andrew Wilson rationalised that Australia’s fundamentals were sound and this was just a pause in our property markets rather than a dramatic disruption.
Much of the uncertainty about the direction of the economy generally, and the real estate markets, in particular, is now giving way to growing confidence that we are returning to normal conditions, not a new COVID 19 normal as some were suggesting, but conditions as they were prior to the pandemic intervention.
Of course, we are still going to have some of our pre-COVID-19 economic challenges.
Problems such as stagnant wages, low inflation, and low productivity.
Clearly many Australians have been adversely affected.
Some health-wise, while others have had their incomes or their jobs disappear and some businesses are not going to survive, but there certainly is cause for a positive outlook moving into 2021.
However, I believe we must also realistic enough to realise there will be challenges ahead for our economy and some businesses.
In our last chat regular weekly chat for 2021, Dr. Andrew Wilson explains what’s happening in our property markets and shares some good news about our employment figures.
Watch this week’s video as we discuss:
- The latest property market data, including the trends in auction results, new listings, and property sales
- Up to date economic data including share market and Australian Dollar trends
- The latest employment trends and jobs creation
- And Dr Wilson’s commentary on these trends
.
This week’s economic data provided by Dr. Andrew Wilson
Australia’s economy continued to surprise economists, with the nation’s unemployment rate falling below 7% to 6.8% with nearly 100,000 jobs added in November, largely driven by the strong economic recovery in Victoria as the state emerged from its strict lockdown.
Meanwhile, household wealth hit a new all-time high as housing and financial markets experienced strong gains over the September quarter, with the average wealth hitting $441,649 per person
Watch our video as Dr. Andrew Wilson gives his commentary:
Recovering Sharemarket – Our strong share market signals improved investor sentiment which should only keep improving as our economy recovers.
The Australian Dollar – has been consistently climbing, which is the opposite of what the Reserve Bank was hoping when it lowered interest rates, but this is in part a reflection of the low US dollar.
Unemployment down
Watch this week’s video as Dr Andrew Wilson unpacks the latest labour data and explains the interrelationship between:
- The unemployment figures
- Participation rates (those employed and the number of people actively looking for jobs)
- Jobs creation – almost 750,000 Aussies have found a job since June
The latest property data provided by Dr. Andrew Wilson of My Housing Market
Watch our video as Dr. Andrew Wilson gives his commentary on the following data: 
Sydney
Auction clearance rates finished the year very strongly in Sydney.
At these levels, when around 80% of properties put to auction sell under the hammer three weeks in a row, price growth tends to follow.
There are now firm signs that we’ve passed the bottom of the Sydney property market.
And Sydney property sales remain strong, even though they’ve tapered off a little in the week leading into Christmas as would be expected.
Melbourne
As life in Melbourne gets back to normal, more properties are being listed for sale and auction clearance rates finished the year strongly despite 864 properties being taken to auction, showing the depth of buyer interest.
Melbourne property sales have continued to be strong, reflecting pent-up demand.
This situation is likely to continue as Melburnians get back to a more normal life and their confidence increases.
Brisbane
The Brisbane property market is performing very strongly with the number of sales being significantly higher than pre the Coronavirus pandemic. Brisbane will start the new year with a surge of pent up demand for home buyers and investors.
Newly listed homes for sale:
Over the last few months increasing consumer confidence saw more vendors putting their homes on the market for sale, particularly in Victoria.
But now with Christmas coming on, fewer properties are being put on the market as some vendors wait till after the break to sell their properties
Watch our video as Dr. Andrew Wilson gives his commentary on the latest statistics.
Now is the time to take action and set yourself for the opportunities that will present themselves as the market moves on
If you’re confused about the mixed messages in the media you are not alone.
However, you can trust the team at Metropole to provide you with direction, guidance, and results.
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'Housing markets finish the year strongly + Latest property data | Property Insiders [VIDEO]' have 10 comments
December 10, 2020 Philip Lee
The property market didn’t collapse because the government is throwing everything at it to keep it afloat. Our property market is not a free market driven by market fundamentals. It is manipulated by the government cutting interest rates to zeo, stamp duty concessions plus first home buyer grants, and government guarantees for deposits all sucking in the financially unsophisticated into putting themselves into a life of mortgage stress. It’s just kicking the can down the road.
December 10, 2020 Michael Yardney
Philip. You are correct, our property markets have never been a “free market”, they have been manipulated by the Reserve Bank and APRA. Remember a couple of years ago when investors were dominating the market pushing up prices, the RBA raised interest rates and APRA made it much harder for banks to lend to investors and this slowed down the markets.
Currently intervention has supported our markets and that’s good. It’s the government’s job to protect its constituents – you and me and one way of doing that is providing stability to our housing market. They are too big to fail and no one will let them fail.
October 16, 2020 Joseph Battaglia
Michael your optimistic views irrespective of the true underlying data is disconcerting.
The government is covering up the reality of the situation, throwing money against the wall at all costs (hoping some will stick) and falsely propping up the economy whilst kicking the can down the road. The rhetoric from parties with bias/interest in the real estate market are also contributing to the propaganda that “things are ok and sentiment is up” – whilst reality is different.
We are not leaders on the world stage, for our real property obsession, in fact we are almost ridiculed that we are a nation that increases their wealth through selling properties to each other increasing the price at each transaction.
Its fiscally clear, we should allow the reset button to deflate this overvalued bubble and get back to reality. I mean seriously, some of these prices are ridiculous!
Are we going the way of Japan?
This QE is just irresponsible on all counts.
Over $1T in debt for such a small economy… come on, who are we kidding.
October 16, 2020 Michael Yardney
You are right Joseph, many of our industries are on life support from the government at the moment. And while the property market was being supported by loan deferrals, they seem to be cleaning themselves up nicely. What is the alternative? Do you really want to see businesses go broke and people go hungry? Our government and those around the world have learned how to handle economic downturns. And spending our way out of a downturn is a valid economic argument
October 2, 2020 Dave
Dear Michael. Your articles are interesting
and usually very well written . However this one is full of a lot of spelling and sentence construction mistakes that in parts make it hard
to follow . Take a look at where it says sh-t (Let me know if you need a proof reader ) 😉
October 2, 2020 Michael Yardney
Thanks for the heads up Dave – you are right lots of errors in this one. As I can talk faster than I can type I usually use voice to text, and it is pretty accurate. But clearly I missed a couple of bad bloopers this time.
July 24, 2020 Martin
The RBA will print money. And has printed plenty of it already to fight covid-19. It just doesn’t give the money directly to the government. It prints new money and uses it to buy government bonds on the secondary market so that institutions can take a cut as they buy the newly issued bonds from the government So that the government can pay for jobkeeper and Then these institutions onsell them to the RBA for a markup.
July 25, 2020 Michael Yardney
There has been a lot of discussion recently about Modern Monetary Theory, which suggests central banks should print more money and then give (lend) it to the government, to help pay for it debts.
This week RBA governor Philip Lowe said that he won’t do that (print extra money) instead the banks should borrow on the open market at the prevailing low interest rates because they can afford it.
Rather than print more money he gave the Morrison government the green light to increase debt levels and lock in a larger budget deficit to support the economy during its recovery from the virus crisis
June 26, 2020 Alex P.
While Dr Wilson may say that more sellers entering the market is an expression of confidence, the flip side is that it may be the smart money taking the opportunity to exit while prices are still holding up. If you drill down in the data is there a way to differentiate whether these are investment properties or owner occupied properties being sold and how does that relate to historical data. Second point is that government intervention has done a good job of addressing short term liquidity over the crisis but there have been no measures on a similar scale to address solvency, and solvency is what really matters after the liquidity tap has been turned off.
June 26, 2020 Michael Yardney
Alex, you are right on both counts.
Our experience on the ground speaking to buyers, sellers and estate agents, is that there are very few distressed properties coming on the market at present.
Similarly we do not believe the government is going to pull the rug out from under us in September after he’s gone to such an effort to support the economy and our markets