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Is Australia’s Inflation Finally Under Control? What It Means for Interest Rates | Property Insiders

key takeaways

Key takeaways

The Australian Bureau of Statistics reported that the headline annual inflation rate fell sharply to 2.7% per annum, and that Australian household wealth rose for the 7th consecutive quarter.

The latest My Housing Market rental report shows some interesting mixed results.

Most capital cities reported lower house rents over September, except Darwin, which reported an increase of 5.6%. Sydney continues to report clearly the highest weekly asking house rents at $800 per week, with Hobart still the most affordable, steady at $550 per week.

Sydney's weekly unit rent is $750, Melbourne's is $578, Brisbane is $623, Adelaide is $500, Perth is $11.7, Adelaide is 11.8% higher than Melbourne, and Darwin is 2.7% higher than Canberra. Brisbane's annual unit rent growth is 5.5%, and Melbourne's is 5.0%.

Household wealth rose for the seventh consecutive quarter in June 2024, to $16.5 trillion, which was 9.3 per cent higher than a year ago.

This weekend's auction results were steady with a clearance rate of 63.3%, higher than the previous weekend's 61.7% but below the 68.9% recorded over the same weekend last year.

Not long ago, the Australian Bureau of Statistics reported that the headline annual inflation rate fell sharply to 2.7% per annum.

Does this mean inflation is under control and interest rates are now going to fall?

That’s one of the questions I ask Dr Andrew Wilson, chief economist of My Housing Market, in today’s Property Insider chat.

We also discuss how despite high interest rates and the rising cost of living, the ABS reported that Australian household wealth rose for the 7th consecutive quarter, and a major contributing factor was rising house prices

We also unpack the latest My Housing Market rental report, which shows some interesting mixed results.

House rents still easing but vacancy rates remain low

Watch this week’s Property Insiders chat as Dr Andrew Wilson explains how capital city home rental markets reported varied results over the first month of spring, with vacancy rates continuing to tighten following the mid-year easing.

However, house rents were generally lower again, with mixed rental growth for units.

Median Weekly Asking Rents September 2024 - HOUSES

City Rent Month Year Vacancy Rate Change
Sydney $800 -1.2% 6.7% 1.3%
Melbourne $600 -2.4% 4.1% 1.3%
Brisbane $638 -0.4% 6.3% 1.1%
Adelaide $610 -1.6% 8.4% 1.0%
Perth $655 -1.5% 9.2% 0.9%
Hobart $550 0.0% 1.9% 0.9%
Darwin $750 5.6% 8.3% 0.6%
Canberra $680 0.0% 1.5% 1.8%  ↓

Most capitals again reported lower house rents over September except for volatile Darwin with an increase of 5.6% and Hobart and Canberra where rents were steady.

Brisbane, Sydney, Perth, Adelaide and Melbourne were all lower over the month, falling by 0.4%, 1.2%, 1.5%, 1.6% and 2.4% respectively.

Sydney continues to report clearly the highest weekly asking house rents at $800 per week with Hobart still the most affordable, steady at $550 per week.

However, most capitals continue to report sharp annual increases in house rents, with Darwin the highest, rising 8.3%, Perth up by 9.2%, Adelaide higher by 8.4%, Sydney up 6.7%, Brisbane up 6.3%, and Melbourne rising 4.1%. Hobart’s annual house rents have increased by 1.9%, and Canberra up 1.5%.

Most capital city house vacancy rates fell over September and remain just above or below 1.0%.

Median Weekly Asking Rents September 2024 - UNITS

City Rent Month Year Vacancy Rate Change
Sydney $750 0.0% 0.0% 1.7%
Melbourne $578 -1.3% 5.0% 2.6%
Brisbane $623 0.4% 5.5% 1.5%
Adelaide $500 0.0% 11.1% 1.0%
Perth $615 1.7% 11.8% 0.7%
Hobart $450 2.3% 0.0% 1.7%
Darwin $565 -4.0% 2.7% 1.2%
Canberra $550 0.0% 0.0% 3.2%

Unit rents however were generally higher or steady over the month after recent easing with Hobart the top performer up by 2.3% followed by Perth up 1.7% and Brisbane higher by 0.4%.

Rents were steady in Sydney Adelaide and Canberra but fell in Melbourne and Darwin by 1.3% and 4.0% respectively.

Perth and Adelaide’s annual unit rental growth remains sharply higher – up by 11.8% and 11.1%, respectively.

Brisbane unit rents have increased by 5.5% over the year to September, with Melbourne up 5.0% and Darwin 2.7% higher.

Sydney, Hobart and Canberra annual unit rents are steady.

Sydney remains the clear leader for weekly unit rents at $750, with Hobart still the most affordable now at $450 per week.

Like houses, capital city unit vacancy rates were mostly lower over September compared to August with Canberra and Melbourne continuing to track above 2.0%.

Household wealth up 1.5% in June quarter

Household Wealth Contribution To Growth Quarterly

Household wealth rose for the seventh consecutive quarter (up 1.5 per cent or $250 billion) in June 2024.

Total household wealth was $16.5 trillion in the June quarter, which was 9.3 per cent ($1.4 trillion) higher than a year ago.

This was largely driven by residential land and dwellings, contributing 1.3 percentage points to quarterly growth.

Inflation falls, but what does this really mean for interest rates?

Watch this week’s Property Insider chat as Dr Andrew Wilson explains how annual headline inflation fell sharply to 2.7% per annum over August, following an annual figure of 3.5% in July.

The preferred measure for the RBA is the underlying annual inflation rate which also fell to 3.4% in August (from 3.7% in July), but obviously this is still outside the preferred range of the RBA.

Abs Underlying Inflation Monthly Annual Change 07 October

The top contributors to the annual movement were Housing (+2.6 per cent), Food and non-alcoholic beverages (+3.4 per cent), and Alcohol and tobacco (+6.6 per cent).

Grocery Products Annual Movement

Partly offsetting the annual increase was Transport (-1.1 per cent).

The falls in electricity and fuel had a significant impact on the annual CPI measure this month.

Automotive fuel was 7.6 per cent lower than August 2023 after price falls in recent months.

Average Price Of Unleaded Petrol

For Electricity, the combined impact of Commonwealth Energy Bill Relief Fund rebates and State Government rebates in Queensland, Western Australia and Tasmania, drove the largest annual fall in electricity prices on record at 17.9 per cent.

In this week’s Property Insider video, Dr Andrew Wilson explains how inflation tracks oil prices which have fallen considerably over the last few months, and will do so again in the month of September (which has not yet been included in the CPI figures) however political tensions in the Middle East may push up the price of oil later this year.

Inflation Tracks Oil Price 07 October

Steady auction results commence mid-Spring market

Higher listing numbers overall this weekend produced relatively steady clearance rates, although the Sydney market was predictably impacted by the long weekend holiday.

The national weekend auction market reported a clearance rate of 63.3% which was higher than the 61.7% reported over the previous weekend – but below the 68.9% recorded over the same weekend last year.

National auction numbers were higher at the weekend with 1754 listings versus the previous weekend’s 1,242 but remained below the 2,002 listed over the same weekend last year.

Auction numbers can be expected to continue to rise over coming weekends despite holiday distractions, which will continue to provide solid tests for buyer depth.

Auction Results October 5

Michael Yardney
About Michael Yardney Michael is the founder of Metropole Property Strategists who help their clients grow, protect and pass on their wealth through independent, unbiased property advice and advocacy. He's once again been voted Australia's leading property investment adviser and one of Australia's 50 most influential Thought Leaders. His opinions are regularly featured in the media.
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