Everything you need to know about the state of Australia’s property markets in 20 charts – October 2024

Key takeaways

CoreLogic estimates the combined value of residential real estate rose to $11 trillion at the end of September.

National home values eased to 1.0% over the September quarter, the softest quarterly rise since the three months to March 2023.

Sydney, Brisbane, Adelaide and Perth dwelling values are all currently at a record high. Perth had the highest monthly, quarterly and annual dwelling value increase while Adelaide has overtaken Brisbane as the second strongest capital city market nationally.

CoreLogic estimates 522,317 sales occurred in the 12 months to September, down from 524,442 in the year to August. Despite the month-on-month decline, transactions are 10.5% higher than last year and 6.5% above the five-year average.

Days on market has increased to 32 days in the three months to September, up from a low of 29 days in Q2. Longer selling times in Hobart (52), Darwin (49) and Canberra (45) are contributing to the increase.

Vendor discounting remained steady at -3.7%, reflecting market conditions and a vendor’s requirement to negotiate to secure a sale.

New listings totalled 42,479, 2.1% higher than the same time last year and 8.2% above the historic five-year average. It’s the highest level of new listings in the first month of spring since 2021.

The recent flow of new listings has seen total listings rise to 145,450 in the four weeks to 6 October 2024.

Sydney (3.7%), Brisbane (12.1%) and Perth (9.4%) have all seen a stronger flow of new listings over the four weeks to 6 October compared to the same time last year.

Total listings in Brisbane are now 4.2% higher than this time last year, while advertised supply in Sydney and Melbourne is 6.9% and 7.9% higher, respectively.

Capital cities recorded their lowest clearance rate of the year at 60.6% in late September, below the 10-year average of 65.5%.

Annual growth in rent values slowed to 6.8% nationally, down from a recent high of 8.5% over the year to April.

Want to know what's happening to the housing markets around Australia?

Well... this monthly collection of charts from CoreLogic paints an interesting picture.

Figures show Perth values reached a new record high and experienced the highest annual growth of 24.1%, driven by sustained demand and limited supply.

Sydney, Brisbane, and Adelaide dwelling values are also at record highs.

Brisbane recorded an annual increase of 14.5%, Adelaide values rose by 14.8% and Sydney values increased 4.5% in the 12 months to September.

Melbourne and Hobart recorded quarterly and annual dwelling declines and are -5.1% and -12.5% respectively below their record highs recorded in March 2022.

Regional housing markets experienced a quarterly increase of 1.0%, down from 2.3% in the three months to April, a similar deceleration to that seen in the capital cities.

Ms Ezzy, economist at Corelogic explains:

“While the market remains resilient in many areas, the pace of growth more broadly has clearly decelerated.

Buyers and investors are becoming more cautious, and the current lending environment is leading to more measured purchasing decisions."

Later this year, or early next year as buyers and sellers see interest start falling and that inflation is coming further under control, consumer confidence will return and buyer and seller activity will pick up.

In fact at Metropole we are seeing a strong increasing consumer confidence and enquiries from both homebuyers and property investors

Residential real estate underpins Australia's wealth

• The total value of Australian residential real estate was $ 11 trillion at the end of September 2024.
• However, outstanding mortgages against all residential housing are only $2.3 trillion - a very comfortable 22% Loan to Value ratio.
• 56.3% of total Aussie household wealth is held in residential property - one of the many reasons neither the banks, the government nor the RBA wants a property crash.

Annual pace of growth continues to slow

• National home values rose 1.0% in the September quarter, the softest quarterly rise since the three months to March 2023 (1.0%).
• The annual pace of growth has also continued to slow to 6.7%, down from a recent high of 9.7% in the 12 months to March.
• Capital city dwelling values rose 1.1% over the quarter, down from 2.1% in the three months to April. By comparison, the regions rose 1.0% in Q3, down from 2.3% in April.
• However, our property markets are fragmented meaning while most segments growing, some are still languishing.

Our capital city markets are fragmented

At the beginning of this cycle the upper quartile of the market lead the upswing but now the lower quartile across every capital city has recorded a stronger outcome for housing values relative to its upper quartile counterpart over the past quarter.

The following chart shows how various segments of each capital city market are performing differently with median-priced properties performing well.

Each State is running its own race

• On the one hand, Perth property values are up 24.1% over the year and are now at a record high.
• On the other hand, Melbourne property values, declined -0.1% over the last month also fell -1.4% over the last year,  and are now -5.1% below the record high, which was in March 2022.

• And in the previous darling of the housing markets, Hobart, house prices are -12.5 % below their record highs recorded in March 2022.

Another star performer was Brisbane where property values increased 14.5% over the last year and are currently at a record high.

Sydney property values which performed strongly over the past year (+4.5%) have made a nominal recovery, and are currently at a new record high.

Here's how the Adelaide property market performed.

The Canberra housing market languished last year

Similarly, the Darwin housing market underperformed in the last year.

Here's how many properties are for sale at the moment

• The spring selling season is off to a cracking start, with the number of new listings observed nationally over the four weeks to October 6th coming in at 42,479.
• This is 2.1% higher than the flow of new listings seen this time last year and 8.2% higher than the previous five-year average.
• New listings levels have not been this high in the first month of spring since 2021.
• The problem is that very few are A Grade homes or investment grade properties. Owners of quality properties are still holding onto them.
• The recent strong flow of new listings has seen total listings rise in recent weeks.
• While still -9.7% below the previous five-year average, as of the four weeks ending 6th October, national total listings were just -0.4% below the levels seen this time last year.
• With the flow of new listings expected to continue to outweigh demand in the coming months, it’s likely total listing levels will continue to rise.

Transaction volumes appear to have moved past peak

• Annual transaction volumes appear to have moved past a peak, with CoreLogic estimating 522,317 sales in the 12 months to September, down from 524,442 over the year to August.
• Although easing month-on-month, annual sales activity remains 10.5% higher than this time last year and is 6.5% above the previous five-year average.

We've moved into a more balanced market

• The time it takes to sell property has continued to trend higher, with the national median time of market coming in at 32 days in Q3, up from 29 days in Q2.
• While rising at the national level, results are more varied across the capitals, with Adelaide (26 days), Darwin (49 days) and Canberra (45 days) all recording faster selling times in September compared to the three months to June.

Vendor Discounting

• At the national level, vendor discounting remained relatively steady over the quarter, at -3.7%.
• Across the capitals, vendors offered a median discount of -3.4%, while regional sellers offered a -4.0% discount in order to secure a sale.

Auction clearance rates decline

• The first month of spring saw auction activity ramp up, with 2,781 auctions held over the week ending 22nd September before easing over the week ending 29th September (1,836), thanks to the AFL grand final.
• While auction volumes have risen, the additional supply has been met with a decline in capital city clearance rates.
• The final week of September saw the capitals record the lowest final clearance rate of the year-to-date with just 60.6% of auctions reporting a successful result.

• We update the weekly auction clearance results here each week.

We're experiencing a rental market crisis in Australia

• Annual growth in rent values slowed to 6.8% nationally, down from a recent high of 8.5% over the year to April.
• Rental growth over the quarter was relatively flat, with values up just 0.1%, the lowest quarterly increase since the three months to September 2020 (0.1%).

• With values rising 0.4% and rents up 0.1%, national gross rental yields compressed in September to 3.68%, the lowest national result since November 2023 (3.67%).
• Underneath the headline figure, yields in Darwin and Hobart inched higher over the month, while Melbourne yields remained steady at 3.67%.
• The remaining capitals all recorded a monthly decline in gross rental yields, ranging from one basis point (Canberra) to seven basis points (Perth).

Dwelling approvals and housing credit

• In August, just shy of 14,000 dwellings were approved nationally, down -6.1% month-on-month.
• The decline was led by the more volatile unit sector (-17.5%), while the housing segment saw a modest uplift of 0.6%.
• House approvals have steadily risen over the year-to-do and were just -3.8% below the previous decade average in August, while unit approvals remain -37.0% below average.

Finance and Lending

• The value of home lending rose 1.0% through August to $30.4 billion.
• Investor finance accounted for most of the monthly increase (around 57.3%), with the value of new investor loan commitments up 1.4% month-on-month, compared to a 0.7% lift across owner-occupier lending.

• The value of first home buyer finance fell 0.4% in August to $5.3 billion.
• First-home buyers made up 28.6% of the value of owner-occupied lending, down slightly from the previous month (28.9%), but well above the historic decade average (24.8%).

Source of charts: CoreLogic Chart Pack, October 2024.

About Michael Yardney Michael is the founder of Metropole Property Strategists who help their clients grow, protect and pass on their wealth through independent, unbiased property advice and advocacy. He's once again been voted Australia's leading property investment adviser and one of Australia's 50 most influential Thought Leaders. His opinions are regularly featured in the media.