Key takeaways
CoreLogic estimates the combined value of residential real estate rose to $11.1 trillion at the end of November.
National home values rose 0.5% over the November quarter, though the pace of growth has slowed considerably from a recent high of 2.2% in the three months to April.
Home value growth continues to be skewed to the more affordable end of the market with the most affordable 25% of Adelaide (4.7%), Perth (4.5%) and Brisbane (31%) rising the fastest. Meanwhile, home values in the upper quartile markets of Darwin (-2.7%), Melbourne (-1.4%) and Sydney (-1.6%) has seen the largest declines over the quarter.
CoreLogic estimates there were 42,771 sales in November, taking the annual count to 527,688 in the 12 months to November. At this stage, spring sales volumes for 2024 are sitting -4.0% lower than the previous five-year average, and the rolling six-month trend in home sales has also moved lower.
Days on market has increased to 32 days in the three months to November, up from 28 days through the three months to August and 27 days in the spring of 2023. The increase in selling times has coincided with higher stock levels, and softer sales volumes year-on-year.
Despite slower growth in housing values, higher days on market and higher stock levels, the median vendor discount through spring nationally was steady compared to spring last year, at
- 3.6%.
Following a strong flow of properties hitting the market earlier In spring, listings totaled 45,878 In the four weeks ending 1 December 2024. This is down -0.2% year-on-year and -4.0% lower than the historic five-year average for the same time of year.
Total listings have continued to trend higher over spring, with the recent flow of new stock taking total listings to 156,151 in the four weeks to 1 December 2024.
Rental growth continued to slow nationally at 5.3% annually, the slowest annual change since April 2021.
Want to know what's happening to the housing markets around Australia?
Well... this monthly collection of charts from CoreLogic paints an interesting picture.
This year's spring selling season proved less successful for sellers than last year's with overall sales volumes 4% lower than the historic average, according to CoreLogic's Housing Chart Pack for December which assessed the performance of the season compared to previous years.
The data shows the figures vary by region with Sydney sales volumes -15.1% lower than the historic average, while in Adelaide they were 15.8% higher.
Nationally, total listing volumes rose 10.6% through spring, and even some of the tighter markets saw an uplift in stock.
Notably in Perth, total listing levels topped those seen at the same time last year in the four weeks to December 1st (up by 1.2%) for the first time in 2024.
This followed a 34% increase in total listings over the spring selling season across the city.
Across the combined capital cities, the clearance rate moved lower through spring, another sign that markets have weakened. In the four weeks to November 24, the final weighted clearance rate averaged 57.3% across the combined capitals, down from 62.7% in the first four weeks of spring.
CoreLogic Economist Kaytlin Ezzy said:
"Between higher stock levels and lower-than-usual sales volumes, the data for the end of November shows that buyers were the winners this spring (just), and sellers generally saw softer market conditions over the past few months."
Nationally, homes also took longer to sell through spring with median days on the market in the three months to November ticking up to 32 days, up from 28 days through the three months to August, and 27 days in the spring of 2023.
She added:
"The increase in selling times has coincided with higher stock levels, and softer sales volumes year-on-year.
The median time on market increased by four days year-on-year across both the combined capital cities and regional market."
Residential real estate underpins Australia's wealth
- The total value of Australian residential real estate was $ 11.1 trillion at the end of November 2024.
- However, outstanding mortgages against all residential housing are only $2.3 trillion - a very comfortable 21% Loan to Value ratio.
- 56.3% of total Aussie household wealth is held in residential property - one of the many reasons neither the banks, the government nor the RBA wants a property crash.
Annual pace of growth continues to slow
- National home values rose 0.5% in the three months to November. The pace of growth has slowed considerably from a recent high of 2.2% in the three months to April.
- The annual pace of growth slowed for the ninth consecutive month, with values up 5.5% over the year to November. This is the lowest annual rise since the 12 months to September 2023 (4.4%).
- Capital city home value trends are softer than in the combined regional market. The combined capital city market
rose 0.3% in the three months to November, compared to a 1.1% lift in the regions. - However, our property markets are fragmented meaning while many segments are growing, some are languishing.
Our capital city markets are fragmented
At the beginning of this property cycle the upper quartile of the market lead the upswing, but now the lower quartile across every capital city has recorded a stronger outcome for housing values relative to its upper quartile counterpart over the past quarter.
The following chart shows how various segments of each capital city market are performing differently with median-priced properties performing well.
Each State is running its own race
- On the one hand, Perth property values are up 21% over the year and are now at a record high.
- On the other hand, Melbourne property values, declined -0.4% over the last month, also fell -2.3% over the last year, and are now -5.5% below the record high, which was in March 2022.
- And in the previous darling of the housing markets, Hobart, house prices are -12.1 % below their record highs recorded in March 2022.
Another star performer was Brisbane where property values increased 12.1% over the last year and are currently at a record high.
Sydney property values underperformed over the past year (+3.3%) and are now -0.5% below the record high which was September 2024.
Here's how the Adelaide property market performed.
The Canberra housing market languished last year
Similarly, the Darwin housing market underperformed in the last year.
Here's how many properties are for sale at the moment
- The rolling 28-day count in national new listings peaked over the four weeks to November 10th at 45,878 and has
trended lower as the spring selling season ends. - New listings over the four weeks to December 1st were down -0.2% over the year and -4.0 lower than the historic five-year average.
- At the national level, there were 156,151 total listings observed over the four weeks to December 1st.
- The problem is that very few are A Grade homes or investment grade properties. Owners of quality properties are holding onto them.
- Since the end of winter, total listings levels have risen 10.6% to be 2.3% above this time last year and just -9.7% below the previous five-year average.
- At the end of winter, listing levels were approximately -13% below the historical average.
Transaction volumes appear to have moved past peak
- CoreLogic estimates there were 42,771 sales nationally in November, taking the annual count to 527,688.
- At this stage, spring sales volumes for 2024 are sitting -4.0% lower than the previous five-year average, and the rolling six-month trend in home sales has also moved lower.
We've moved into a more balanced market
- Nationally, homes took longer to sell through spring.
- Median days on market in the three months to November ticked up to 32 days, up from 28 days through the three months to August, and 27 days in the spring of 2023.
- The increase in selling times has coincided with higher stock levels, and softer sales volumes year-on-year.
- The median time on market increased by four days year-on-year across both the combined capital cities and regional market.
Vendor Discounting
- Despite slower growth in housing values, higher days on market and higher stock levels, the median vendor discount through spring nationally was steady compared to spring last year, at -3.6%.
- The rate was also steady in the combined capitals over the same period and declined marginally across the combined regional market.
Combined capital cities auction clearance rate trended lower through spring 2024
- In the four weeks to November 24, the final weighted auction clearance rate averaged 57.3% across the combined capitals, down from 62.7% in the first four weeks of spring.
- The falling clearance rate is another indicator of a slight slowdown in housing market conditions.
- We update the weekly auction clearance results here each week.
We're still experiencing a rental market crisis in Australia
- Rental growth continued to slow nationally, with rents up 5.3% over the 12 months to November – the slowest annual change since April 2021.
- Over the three months to October, capital city rents rose only marginally (0.2%), while regional rental values saw a stronger 0.9% lift.
- In November, national gross rent yields remained at 3.7%, marking two years of rent yields holding at this level.
- However, the easing in rent growth amid multi-speed value growth conditions has resulted in strong variation across cities.
- Over the past year, rent yields have fallen in high capital growth markets like Brisbane, Adelaide, and Perth, trending higher in Canberra, Darwin, Hobart, and Melbourne, and were steady in Sydney.
Dwelling approvals and housing credit
- Dwelling approvals rose 4.2% in the month of October, but the details between houses and units show mixed results.
- National unit approvals rose sharply in October, but tend to be a more volatile series, and remain -14.6% below the
decade average. - By contrast, national house approvals fell -5.0% over the month, but are just -4.6% below the 10-year average.
Finance and Lending
- After rising for seven consecutive months, the value of new home lending fell -0.3% in September to $30.2 billion.
- Both investor (-1.0%) and first home buyer (-3.3%) financing declined over the month, while owner-occupier lending rose by just 0.1%.
- The value of first home buyer finance fell -3.3% in September to $5.2 billion.
- First-home buyers comprised 28.0% of the value of owner-occupied lending, down from a recent peak of 30.0% in April but well above the historic decade average of 24.9%.
Source of charts: CoreLogic Chart Pack, December 2024.
- Also read:Melbourne property market forecast for 2025
- Also read:Brisbane’s property market forecast for 2025
- Also read:Latest property price forecasts for 2025 revealed. What’s ahead in our housing markets in the next year or two?
- Also read:Sydney property market forecast for 2025
- Also read:This week’s Australian Property Market Update – Latest Data, State by State December 10th 2024
