Everything you need to know about the state of Australia’s property markets in 20 charts – January 2025

Want to know what's happening to the housing markets around Australia?

Well... this monthly collection of charts from CoreLogic paints an interesting picture.

Home values declined a little after nearly two years of consecutive growth, with CoreLogic’s national Home Value Index dropping -0.1% in December.

This downturn is being caused by the widening gap between income, borrowing capacity and home values.

Historic analysis shows these gaps eventually narrow over time through lower interest rates, higher income growth and falling prices.

The start of this downturn was partly seasonal, with the property market activity usually slowing down in December. But even accounting for seasonality, the market is looking softer.

The downturn is currently concentrated in Sydney and Melbourne, but price falls are beginning to spread in other regions and suburbs.

Expect the downturn to be shallow and short-lived, as growth in real incomes and lower interest rates could help to support housing purchases later in 2025.

• The total value of Australian residential real estate was $ 11.3 trillion at the end of December 2024 - significantly higher than the combined value of Australian superannuation funds ($4.1 trillion) and the Australian stock exchange ($3.3 trillion).
• Outstanding mortgages against all residential housing are only $2.4 trillion - a very comfortable 21% Loan to Value ratio.
• 55.9% of total Aussie household wealth is held in residential property - one of the many reasons neither the banks, the government nor the RBA wants a property crash.

Home values fell

• After holding steady in October and November, home values fell -0.1% in December. This saw the quarterly trend shift into negative territory for the first time since the three months to February 2023 (-0.6%).
• Home values increased 4.9% over the 12 months to December, below the 8.5% rise recorded over the 2023 calendar year, but a more positive year-end result compared to 2022, when values fell -4.9%.
• The affordable end of the market dominated growth through 2024. Nationally, lower quartile values were up 9.9%
  over the year compared to the 2.1% rise seen in the more expensive upper quartile.
• However, our property markets are fragmented meaning while many segments are growing, some are languishing.
• And, of course, as a property investor you can always outperform the average.

Our capital city markets are fragmented

Our housing markets are fragmented with each state performing differently depending on local economic and market factors.

At the beginning of this property cycle the upper quartile of the market lead the upswing in 2023, but more recently the lower quartile across every capital city has recorded a stronger outcome for housing values relative to its upper quartile counterpart over the past quarter.

The following chart shows how various segments of each capital city market are performing differently with median-priced properties performing well.

Each State is running its own race

• On the one hand, Perth property values are up 19.1% over the year and are now at a record high.
• On the other hand, Melbourne property values, declined -0.7% over the last month, fell -3% over the last year,  and are now -6.4% below the record high, which was in March 2022.

• And in the previous darling of the housing markets, Hobart, house prices are -12.6 % below their record highs recorded in March 2022.

Another star performer was Brisbane where property values increased 11.2% over the last year and are currently at a record high.

Sydney property values underperformed over the past year (+2.3%) and are now -1.4% below the record high which was September 2024.

Here's how the Adelaide property market performed.

The Canberra housing market languished last year

Similarly, the Darwin housing market underperformed in the last year.

Here's how many properties are for sale at the moment

• After peaking over the four weeks to October 27th(45,892), the flow of new listings has entered a seasonal slowdown, with just 26,423 new properties listed nationally over the 28 days to December 22nd.
• This is relatively in line with historic benchmarks, down just -0.8% compared to the same time in 2023 and just -0.3% lower than the previous five-year average.
• At the national level, there were 141,923 total property listings observed over the four weeks to December 22nd.
• The problem is that very few are A Grade homes or investment grade properties. Owners of quality properties are holding onto them.
• While down from the seasonal peak recorded over the 4 weeks to November 17th (158,327) and -10.1% below the historic five-year average for this time of year, total listings levels were 3.8% higher than the same time in 2023, with total stock levels accumulating through spring and early summer.

Transaction volumes

• In the 2024 calendar year, CoreLogic estimates there were 531,573 sales nationally.
• Although up 8.3% annually, sales activity over the December quarter was down -1.0% compared to the final quarter of 2023 and -6.2% lower than the previous five-year average.

It's taking longer to sell a home

• After holding relatively steady around 28 days through much of 2024, the median time on the market trended higher in the December quarter, at 33 days.
• Compared to this time last year, selling times have increased across Sydney (+5 days), Melbourne (+7 days), Brisbane (+5 days), Perth (+3 days) and Hobart (+14 days), held steady in Darwin and Canberra, and declined slightly in Adelaide (-1 day).

Vendor Discounting

• Although selling conditions have rebalanced in favour of buyers, the median vendor discount rate tightened slightly in 2024, from -3.8% in the final quarter of 2023, to -3.6% in the three months to December 2024.
• This suggests that sellers have been relatively realistic when setting initial listing prices and have become more willing to meet the market.

The capital city auction market ended the year on a low note

• The combined capitals clearance rate coming in at 55.7% over the week ending 15th December — the lowest clearance rate since the final auction week of 2022 (51.9%).
• With selling conditions skewing towards buyers, we could see a more subdued auction market in the first few months of 2025.
• We update the weekly auction clearance results here each week.

We're still experiencing a rental market crisis in Australia

• Corelogic's national rental index increased by 4.8% in the year to December, a notable decrease from the 8.1% rise observed in 2023 and the 9.5% rental growth recorded in 2022.
• With net overseas migration projected to normalise and the average household size expected to continue to trend towards pre-COVID levels, rental growth is anticipated to moderate further in 2025.

• At the national level, gross rent yields have remained relatively unchanged over the past two years at 3.7%.
• While stable at the national levels, yields rose across Hobart (+30 basis points), Melbourne (+29 basis points), Darwin (+21 basis points) and Canberra (+12 basis points) over the year.

Dwelling approvals and housing credit

• Monthly dwelling approvals fell -3.6 in November, led by a -5.6% decline in unit approvals.
• While down over the month, dwelling approvals were up 6.9% compared to three months ago and were 3.2% higher relative to this time last year.
• Although up over the year, monthly approvals remain -11.7% below the decade average and around 25% below the
  numbers needed to meet the Government’s target of 1.2 million well-located homes in five years.

Finance and Lending

• After rising for seven consecutive months, the value of new home lending fell -0.3% in September to $30.2 billion.
• Both investor (-1.0%) and first home buyer (-3.3%) financing declined over the month, while owner-occupier lending rose by just 0.1%.

• The value of first home buyer finance fell -3.3% in September to $5.2 billion.
• First-home buyers comprised 28.0% of the value of owner-occupied lending, down from a recent peak of 30.0% in April but well above the historic decade average of 24.9%.

Source of charts: CoreLogic Chart Pack, January 2025.

• Also read:Melbourne property market forecast for 2025
• Also read:Brisbane’s property market forecast for 2025
• Also read:Latest property price forecasts for 2025 revealed. What’s ahead in our housing markets in the next year or two?
• Also read:Sydney property market forecast for 2025
• Also read:Everything you need to know about the state of Australia’s property markets in 20 charts – January 2025