Where did all the babies go? A closer look at our declining birth rates

Did you have a baby in 2013?

Well, that year was the year when the world reached 'peak-child'.

We will never see more babies being born than it has in 2013.

Babies are a shrinking cohort

We're now seeing the first sign of global human population decline.

In fact, the UN Population Division estimates that in 2086 we will see ‘peak humanity'.

In his regular column in The New Daily, leading demographer Simon Kuestenmacher explained that this means that as 2022 ends, the number of five-year-olds is forever declining.

And as early as 2035 we will see peak-18-year-old.

In other words...peak baby is long gone.

Why do we make fewer babies?

Kuestenmacher explains:

"Educated folks know the biological basics and engage in active family planning. Highly-educated folks spend a long time acquiring degrees and then dedicate their 20s and 30s to their careers. Once in their mid-30s, they ran out of time to create all that many kids."

He further commented:

"Housing also is prohibitive in expensive cities.

How many Sydneysiders could possibly afford a house large enough for five kids?

On top of this we know that in developed nations, a pessimistic outlook of the future tends to drive birth rates down even further.

Since peak baby occurred already, we know for sure that peak humanity is just around the corner.

Once the babies born in 2013 start dying, they will not be replaced by an equally sized new cohort of babies – more people will die every year than babies will be born."

Individuals countries can still grow their population

The exact date of peak humanity depends on the longevity of humans around the world and catastrophes like war, famine, and pandemics.

And while peak baby means that the global population will decline eventually, individual countries can still grow.

Mr Kuestenmacher said:

"Any growth country will have a high enough birth rate to replace its dying population, import people via migration, or both.

A nation that imports migrants in their 20s and 30s all but guarantees and increased number of babies as well.

Australia and Canada are two great examples of nations that attract international skilled talent (aged in their 20s and 30s) while also featuring reasonably high birth numbers."

This means that both nations only need a relatively (in global terms) small migration intake to continue growing their population base.

Even in a shrinking world, the two nations are likely to project enough soft power to attract migrants at scale.

Obviously, this makes Australia and Canada rare sights in the developed world.

While UK and Canada both attract sizeable migrant cohorts, neither will see increasing numbers of babies.

The population aged 0 will be essentially stable over the coming decades.

In global comparison, a stable number of babies is a great outcome.

A growing number of countries feature rapidly falling birth numbers

A great example of this is Russia.

Mr Kuestenmacher further explained:

"The strong birth cohort from the 1950s had fewer kids than their parents had resulting in a smaller birth cohort throughout the 1980s.

The kids from the 1980s had even fewer kids in the 2010s.

The kids born in the 2010s are projected to create a measly cohort in the 2040s. In the span of human life, Russia went from 3.5 million babies per year to 1.4 million babies.

The nation is withering away."

Well, this projection might still turn out to be overly optimistic since it doesn’t account for tens, if not hundreds, of thousands of young Russian men dying in a senseless war.

And without turning itself into a pariah state, Russia might’ve stood a chance to attract the coming wave of climate refugees.

Another country frequently accused of polishing its population numbers is China.

Just like Russia, China sees very little migration.

Its state-managed surveillance and strict COVID-zero strategies didn’t do the ‘Middle Kingdom’ any favours.

Of course, the one-child policy played into the falling birth numbers, but broader cultural shifts, and general rhetoric discouraging births, probably played an even bigger role.

Even generous government incentives (cash handouts, real estate subsidies and extension of maternity leave) don’t seem to turn the tide either.

It is very hard to turn a declining population around.

One last example of a babyless nation is Italy.

Essentially, Italy and most of Southern Europe stopped making babies while the rest of the continent has birth rates below replacement level as well.

The bottom line...

Europe will soon realise how much it needs more generous migration policies.

In fact, in about a decade European Baby Boomers will all be retired, and the continent will desperately need migrants because the European Baby Boomers didn’t produce enough babies to have folks at hand to care for them in old age.

Mr Kuestenmacher shared this insight:

"For migration nations like Australia and Canada that means increased competition.

Australia shouldn’t blindly trust that it will forever be able to migrate its way out of any labour shortage.

We need to ensure that all industries become more efficient, and embrace artificial intelligence, robotics, and automation.

We need to free up more workers by introducing more generous childcare subsidies (we are moving in the right direction here), tapping into disadvantaged workforces in the indigenous and disability communities and encouraging older folks to work a bit longer by not punishing them financially for doing so.

That said, Australia’s demographic profile still is reflective of our reputation as the ‘Lucky Country’."

Source of charts and commentary: The New Daily 

About Joseph Ballota Joseph is a Property Coach who put hundreds of people on the road towards wiping away their mortgage in under 5 years through expert Property Investment Plans.