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By Tim Lawless
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CoreLogic National housing market update [video] | May 2024

Australian home values moved through a 15th straight month of growth in April with CoreLogic's national home value index rising by 0.1%, on par with the pace of gains recorded in February and March.

National Housing Market Update | May 2024

Regional markets have shown slightly stronger quarterly growth over the past five months than their capital city counterparts following a ten-month period where the combined capitals index was outperforming.

Looking at value movements over the past 3 months, the strongest regional markets were aligned with the strongest capital cities.

Change in Dwelling Values in Australia

Home sales look to have moved through a cyclical peak in November last year.

Nationally, rents were up 0.8% in April, a slight slowdown in the rate of growth relative to February and March when the national rental index rose by 0.8% and 1% respectively.

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Note: At a national level, rents have been rising faster than values since November last year, supporting a rise in gross rental yields.

Housing Trends Across Capital Cities

Now let's take a look at the housing trends across each of the capital cities.

Sydney

Sydney home values have continued along a modest upward trajectory, rising by 0.4% in April to be 1.3% higher over the first four months of the year.

Sydney Dwelling Prices April 2024

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Note: Sydney dwelling values are now -0.8% below the record high, which was in January 2022.

Melbourne

Melbourne is the only capital city where housing values fell over the first four months of the year, nudging 0.3% lower.

Melbourne Dwelling Values April 2024

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Note: Melbourne dwelling values are now -4.1% below the record high, which was in March 2022.

Brisbane

The pace of growth in Brisbane housing values remains at the high end of the spectrum across the capital cities.

Brisbane Dwelling Values April 2024

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Note: Brisbane dwelling values are currently at a record high.

Adelaide

Adelaide home values increased by 1.3% in April, a subtle slowdown relative to March when the monthly growth rate was 1.4%.

Adelaide Dwelling Values April 2024

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Note: Adelaide dwelling values are currently at a record high.

Perth

The Perth housing market seems to be running its own race with a quarterly rate of growth in home values rising to 6%, the largest increase since the first quarter of 2021 when interest rates were at generational lows.

Perth Dwelling Values April 2024

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Note: Perth dwelling values are currently at a record high.

Hobart

Hobart's housing market has emerged from a near 2-year slump with the past three months recording a consistent, albeit subtle rise in home values to be up 0.8% over the rolling quarter.

Hobart Dwelling Values April 2024

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Note: Hobart dwelling values are now -11.2% below the record high, which was in March 2022.

Darwin

Darwin housing values were up 0.1% in April, in line with the national average.

Darwin Dwelling Values April 2024

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Note: Darwin dwelling values are now -5.8% below the record high, which was in May 2014.

Canberra

Canberra housing values have recorded three months of consistent but subtle growth with values up 1% over the rolling quarter to be 2.1% higher over the past twelve months.

Canberra Dwelling Values April 2024

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Note: Canberra dwelling values are now -6.0% below the record high, which was in May 2022.

Housing Supply and Demand

The persistent rise in housing values despite an array of downside factors that would normally act to push prices lower can be drawn back to the insufficient supply of housing relative to demand.

There are a few ways to measure housing supply.

Such a mismatch between available supply and demonstrated demand is keeping markets skewed in favour of sellers in most cities.

We can also see evidence of low supply in the number of homes being built.

Rolling quarterly change in dwelling values around Australia

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Note: In the meantime, it looks as though interest rates could stay higher for longer.

With high interest rates, the recent upside surprise on inflation, a gradual loosening in labour markets, and growing housing worsening risk profile, housing values are likely to be propped up by the mismatch between housing supply and demand, a situation that doesn't look like it will change in the near future.

ALSO READ:

Perth Housing Market Update [Video]

Adelaide Housing Market Update [Video]

Sydney Housing Market Update [Video]

Brisbane Housing Market Update [Video]

Melbourne Housing Market Update [Video]

About Tim Lawless Tim heads up the Core Logic RP Data research and analytics team, analysing real estate markets, demographics and economic trends across Australia. Visit www.corelogic.com.au
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