Key takeaways
The RBA held the cash rate at 4.35% in June, but persistent inflation and fuel price pressures mean the pause is a wait and see move, not a declaration of victory.
Auction clearance rates have fallen to year to date lows in every capital city, and Brisbane has recorded the sharpest deterioration of any market in the country, dropping from 51.1% a year ago to just 20.7% this week.
Net migration continues to ease nationally, though NSW still leads on overseas arrivals and Queensland remains the biggest beneficiary of interstate movement.
None of this changes the long-term fundamentals underpinning investment-grade property, and periods of softness like this are usually where the best buying opportunities for patient investors quietly show up.
Every capital city's auction clearance rate has just dropped to its lowest point of the year, and Brisbane is the real shock, plunging to under 22 per cent this week, down from over 50 per cent just twelve months ago.
That's happening even though the Reserve Bank left the cash rate on hold again at 4.35 percent, after three rises this year wiped out everything that got cut through 2025. A pause like that would normally settle buyer nerves, yet listings keep climbing and clearance rates keep sliding in every single capital as winter properly sets in.
In this week’s Property Insiders chat with Dr Andrew Wilson, I ask him why the RBA chose to keep rates on hold despite inflation still running hotter than the Bank wants, and why Brisbane's auction market has fallen so far so fast.
The RBA holds, but don't mistake this for an all clear
The Reserve Bank left the cash rate on hold at 4.35% over June, following three consecutive rises in February, March and May.
Those rises this year wiped out everything the Bank cut through 2025, taking us straight back to the same level we were sitting at before the cutting cycle began.
In the RBA’s the Board noted that following the three increases in the cash rate target since the beginning of the year, financial conditions are now tighter than they were, and there are signs the economy is slowing as expected, but inflation is still too high, so the Board judged it appropriate to leave the cash rate target unchanged while it assesses the response to previous rises and the impact of the oil supply disruption.
Watch this week's Property Insider chat as Dr. Andrew Wilson explains why he believes the next interest rate movement may be down, and sooner than many anticipate.
However, the RBA isn't confident inflation is beaten yet, but it also doesn't want to overcorrect while the economy is still digesting three rate rises in quick succession.
A strong labour market gave the RBA room to keep fighting inflation through the first half of the year, and it's only now that the labour market is showing signs of softening, alongside a slightly better outlook for fuel prices, that the Bank has been able to step back and watch rather than act.
Currently, three of our four major banks are calling this the peak of the interest rate cycle, and are expecting rates to fall in the second quarter of 2027.
Westpac is the outlier, expecting two more interest rate rises this year, before rates fall next year.
Of course, holding rates steady does remove one layer of uncertainty from the market, at least for now. And that matters, because property markets are heavily influenced by confidence.
When buyers believe interest rates have stabilised, they often start to re-engage, even if borrowing capacity remains constrained.
But if households are worried that rates may rise again, they tend to sit on their hands.
That’s one of the reasons today’s market feels patchy. Some buyers are cautiously looking for opportunities, while others are still waiting for more certainty.
Migration is easing, but the State level detail matters more than the headline
Watch this week's Property Insider chat as Dr Andrew Wilson explains how annual migration is still easing, according to the latest ABS figures to the December quarter of 2025.
NSW, Victoria, Queensland, South Australia and Western Australia are all recording lower migration numbers than the peaks we saw during the post-pandemic rebound.
That’s important because population growth has been one of the big demand drivers behind our housing markets over the last few years.
But lower migration does not suddenly solve Australia’s housing shortage. We have been underbuilding for years, and the homes we need are not appearing quickly enough.
We also have to remember that people don’t simply need “housing” in an abstract sense. They need the right type of accommodation, in the right locations, near jobs, schools, transport, infrastructure and lifestyle amenities.
NSW topped net annual overseas migration, with 90,961 people, followed by Victoria at 85,044, Queensland at 54,604, Western Australia at 50,841, and South Australia at 18,518.
That tells us Sydney and Melbourne are still major gateways for overseas arrivals, despite affordability pressures.
- Also read:Brisbane’s Auction Market Just Crashed – What the RBA’s Rate Pause Really Means for Property Investors | Property Insiders
- Also read:Latest Property Price Forecasts. Australian Property Market Outlook 2026: Where To Now After The Rate Rise & Budget Changes.
- Also read:This week’s Australian Property Market Update – Latest Data, State by State June 23rd 2026
- Also read:Everything you need to know about the state of Australia’s property markets in 20 charts – June 2026
- Also read:National Weekly Auction Report – June 20th 2026 | Auction Markets Fall as Winter Chill Approaches
At the same time, Queensland continues to lead the country for net interstate migration, gaining 16,528 people over the year, while Western Australia also recorded a strong interstate gain of 10,419.
NSW lost 21,465 people through interstate migration, while Victoria was only slightly negative at 685.
This tells a familiar but important story - Sydney remains a global city that attracts overseas migrants, but many local residents continue to move elsewhere in search of affordability and lifestyle.
Melbourne appears to be stabilising after a tough few years, while Queensland and Western Australia continue to benefit from internal population shifts.
This is exactly the kind of detail that gets lost when migration is reported as a single national number. The story isn't really about migration slowing down everywhere equally; it's about where the people who do arrive end up staying, and that has direct implications for rental demand and underlying buyer pools in each city.
Every capital is slipping, but Brisbane's fall is in a league of its own
Capital city auction markets were broadly weaker across the board this week, with listings and clearance rates falling and now tracking year to date lows in most cities.
Despite the Reserve Bank holding rates steady, auction markets are likely to keep reporting subdued results as winter properly sets in.
Brisbane is the city that genuinely stands out this week, and not in a good way. Just 135 properties went under the hammer with a clearance rate of only 20.7%, down from 30.2% the previous week and a stark contrast to the 51.1% recorded in the same week last year.
Having said that, Dr. Andrew Wilson also always explains that the Brisbane property market is not an auction-centric market, and not to read too much into these figures.
Taken together, every capital is softer than it was twelve months ago, which is consistent with what three rate rises this year should do to buyer confidence.
What this means for property investors
For investors, the biggest mistake right now would be to overreact to short-term data.
Yes, auction clearance rates are softer. Yes, migration is easing. Yes, the RBA is still concerned about inflation.
But none of this removes Australia’s structural housing shortage.
In fact, softer market sentiment often creates better conditions for strategic buyers.
When competition cools, buyers have more time to conduct due diligence, negotiate properly, and avoid getting swept up in emotional bidding.
Of course, this does not mean every property is worth buying. In a more selective market, asset selection becomes even more important.
The properties likely to outperform over the long term will still be those with scarcity, owner-occupier appeal, strong land-to-asset ratios, access to amenities, and locations with above-average household incomes.
Secondary properties, high-rise investor stock, fringe locations with lots of developable land, and properties with limited buyer depth are likely to remain more vulnerable.
For those who are well financed, have a long-term perspective, and are prepared to take advice, this could be a useful window.
Not because the market is booming - because it isn’t! And because many other buyers are hesitating.
And history has shown me that the best opportunities often appear when the headlines are mixed, confidence is patchy, and most people are waiting for clarity.
By the time clarity arrives, the market has usually already moved.
If you'd like to talk through what all this means for your own portfolio, particularly with rates still uncertain and the Federal Budget's changes to negative gearing and capital gains tax now in play, the team at Metropole would be happy to help. Click here to organise a Wealth Discovery Chat with one of our wealth strategists.
