By Michael Yardney May 20, 2025

A A A

180 View comments

Jobs, Loans and Listings – What This Week’s Numbers Really Mean for Property | Property Insiders

Weekly Latest
Jobs, Loans and Listings – What This Week’s Numbers Really Mean for Property | Property Insiders

Key takeaways

The RBA cut interest rates which will further fuel positive momentum in the property market.

The job market remains exceptionally strong, which is a major foundation for housing stability.

March quarter lending slowed, but annual data is more encouraging.

The fundamentals remain robust: tight labour markets, rising buyer sentiment, stabilising interest rates, and investor interest are combining to propel the property market forward.

Caution remains around short-term volatility and inflation, but the overall trajectory is positive, particularly for well-located properties in the eastern states and SA.

Australia’s housing market continues to power through 2025 with strong undercurrents beneath the surface — some steady, some shifting.

This is going to be a big week for property with the Reserve Bank once again cutting interest rates, meaning the tailwinds for property look set to strengthen, because...

Borrowing capacity will improve.
Buyer competition will increase.
Demand from both investors and upgraders is likely to build.

But we should also remain cautious, as you’ll hear from Dr Andrew Wilson, Australia’s leading housing economist and chief economist of my housing market.

I also ask him about the latest unemployment figures, home loan approvals and the weekend’s auction results.

Watch this video on YouTube

Labour market: still Strong, still Tight

Watch this week’s Property Insiders chat as Dr. Andrew Wilson explains that despite all the global economic turbulence, Australia’s job market remains remarkably resilient.

According to the ABS April 2025 labour force report:

The unemployment rate stayed steady at 4.1%, holding the line from March.
A staggering 89,000 jobs were added in April alone.
Over the past year, total employment rose by 389,800 jobs — a solid 2.7% increase.
The participation rate climbed to 67.1%, just shy of record highs.
Jobless rates were lowest in NSW and South Australia (3.9%), reflecting strong local economies.

So what does this mean for housing?

A healthy labour market gives consumers, especially homeowners and borrowers, the confidence to make big financial commitments.

It also keeps mortgage arrears low and supports rental demand from a mobile workforce.

As long as employment remains this robust, it's unlikely we’ll see a major downturn in housing.

Home loan data: down for the quarter, but up year-on-year

Watch this week’s Property Insiders chat as Dr. Andrew Wilson explains that while home lending dipped in the March quarter, the annual figures tell a more optimistic story.

Here’s the quarterly snapshot:

Total housing loans dropped 3.5% over the March quarter.
Owner-occupier lending fell 3.4%.
Investor lending was down 3.7%.
First home buyer loans dropped 4.2%.

Yet, over the year to March:

Overall loan activity is still up 6.0%.
Investor lending grew 8.8% annually, the strongest of all borrower groups.
Queensland topped the charts for owner-occupier lending growth, at 5.9%, demonstrating its ongoing appeal to population and affordability.
South Australia experienced the highest annual growth in investor lending at 13%, reflecting a shift toward more affordable markets with better yields.

Despite the quarterly slowdown, these figures confirm that buyers, particularly investors, are returning to the market, especially in the eastern states and Adelaide.

Auctions: Melbourne leads the charge

The auction markets are heating up again, with Melbourne leading the pack — a clear sign that buyer sentiment is improving.

For the week ending May 17, 2025:

Melbourne posted a 74.1% clearance rate from 849 auctions — the highest volume and success rate nationally.
Sydney wasn’t far behind at 73.6% from 667 auctions.
Brisbane (46.7%), Adelaide (57.5%), and Canberra (52.8%) showed more subdued results, but volumes are increasing.

Compared to this time last year, Melbourne's clearance rate is up significantly from 63.6%, showing real market momentum.

The rebound is being driven by a combination of:

Stronger-than-expected jobs data.
Stabilising (and potentially falling) interest rates.
Improved buyer confidence.
Tight supply relative to demand.

The bottom line

What’s clear from this week’s data is that Australia’s property markets are shifting back into gear, especially in Melbourne and Sydney.

But this isn’t a uniform boom.

The market is being driven by strong fundamentals — jobs, demand, and undersupply — rather than speculation.

And savvy investors are taking note.

With interest rates likely to soften and confidence rebuilding, 2025 could prove to be a classic counter-cyclical opportunity, especially for those willing to look beyond the headlines.

About Michael Yardney Michael is the founder of Metropole Property Strategists who help their clients grow, protect and pass on their wealth through independent, unbiased property advice and advocacy. He's once again been voted Australia's leading property investment adviser and one of Australia's 50 most influential Thought Leaders. His opinions are regularly featured in the media.

180 comments

paul 2025-05-14 20:56:51

Its people selling their investment homes for a tidy profit Labor / liberal have no clue

0 replies

anna del monaco 2025-05-07 14:43:46

Yes more pain to come!!! and no tangible solutions from Albo & co just more talk and waffle. The build time and endless bureaucratic tape only increasing and no one interesting in winding back the number of hoops you need to jump over ....and ...Read full version

1 reply

dazza007 2025-05-07 09:36:23

Not sure if housing supply will ever catch up - based upon what I am seeing in my Profession. As an Construction Estimator there has certainly been an uplift in the number of State Housing tenders being advertised. When I dig deeper I generally ...Read full version

1 reply

Would you like to share your thoughts?

amayzingone August 14, 2024

From the article:
“We know the Federal government is encouraging the construction of 1.2 million new dwellings in the next five years”
But lets get back to reality…
Firstly the Federal Government DOES NOT build homes and especially those for renters.
Secondly not a single dwelling is yet to be built under this program despite the millions already spent on it. (Why are we not surprised?) God knows where all this money has gone but it didnt go into building new dwellings.
And its not going to happen this financial year either.
So the housing shortage will continue into the foreseeable future unless immigation is significantly reduced, becasue that is the main driver of our housing shortage.
So with that, one can only conclude that any investment in residential housing (in the main areas of demand) will make good gains over the next 5 years. especially when interest rates start falling some time next year.

1 reply Reply

Michael Yardney August 14, 2024

Yes we are not going to get anywhere close to the federal government housebuilding target

0 replies Reply

amayzingone August 14, 2024

Lets be clear here about what Michelle Bullock said. She was adamant that interest rates would not decrease for at least 6 months and so well and truly into 2025. She said “aggregate demand” was still strong driven by strong public sector spending and that the economy had to cool some more. Some like Treasurer “Jungle Bells” Jim Chalmers deliberately misrepresented this statement as the economy being too hot and wrongfully attacked Bullock. But that is not what Bullock said.
Lets also be clear about what wealth of information the RBA has and uses to make its decisions let alone all the number of economic analysts they employ vs what others have at thier disposal. Its really chalk and cheese.
Lets also consider how many times these same banks got interest rate predictions totally wrong for whatever reason. And I woudnt be surprised if they were just trying to ‘steer” the market the way thay want it to go. The RBA has no such bias.
The bottom line for the audience here is that the property market is still forging ahead. Even after 12 interest rate increases.
When you do the maths and look back at history, the rates today are still low by historical standards. So it makes perfect sence for many home buyesr and investors to buy property under these conditions.

1 reply Reply

Michael Yardney August 14, 2024

thanks for your detailed comment

0 replies Reply

Katrina Hicks July 25, 2024

These figures don’t include everyone who is looking for work. As not everyone is on Centrelink.

1 reply Reply

Michael Yardney July 26, 2024

yes – the figures are not as important as the trends

0 replies Reply

amayzingone July 17, 2024

All this panic over a tiny blimp.
If you look at ther graphs there are plenty of such blimps that have been followed by stroung increases.
in fact the liong term trend is still well and truly UP!
As the saying goes…a month of data doesnt make a trend.
Show me 3 or 4 months of declines – then we cam start talking about a NEW TREND forming.

1 reply Reply

Michael Yardney July 17, 2024

thanks for watching our video again.

0 replies Reply

Lee W July 4, 2024

Of course there is a lag on the interest rate rises! Given the fixed rate cliff and household savings being dried up. The stats on savings buffers being exhausted is well documented…

1 reply Reply

Michael Yardney July 4, 2024

Thanks for watching our video – I agree that there is a lag before higher interest rates start having an effect.

0 replies Reply

Ben July 3, 2024

Even a broken analog watch is correct twice a day. Economics AKA as the ‘Dismal Science’ means academics like Andrew Wilson are making best educated guesses. His predictions would be more credible if we knew his accuracy strike rate. It wasn’t that long ago he said rates would remain on hold til 2024 and less than a couple of months later we started seeing rates rise.

1 reply Reply

Michael Yardney July 3, 2024

Ben – you make a good point; I agree that a couple of years ago, we reported that the Reserve Bank said interest rates would not rise until 2024. Even they got it wrong.

0 replies Reply

Michael June 25, 2024

Urgent Assistance for the Mismanaged Housing Industry and failed Bank Lending policies.
The mismanagement is causing inflation, massive damage to the national economy and hardship for citizens.
1). Bank Lending should rapidly increase Productive Lending.
This can be achieved by a major reduction of Unproductive Lending.
2). Banks can be shown the benefits of Productive Lending as opposed to Destructive Lending.
3). Australian Banks and the RBA can be shown how to implement the above sectors within weeks.
4). Overseas English language Skilled Construction Workers are plentiful.
Those skilled workers must be invited here, to assist with our chronic shortage of skilled home building workers.
That is done for other emergency national disasters as, wildfires, and humanitarian need.
5). Parliaments and Union leaders need not fear temporary competition.
6). Union member workers will benefit immediately as will society from increased housing supply.

1 reply Reply

Michael Yardney June 25, 2024

thanks for your detailed comment Michael

0 replies Reply

Rob February 28, 2024

Wages growth figures don’t include superannuation or the recent payroll tax changes in Victoria either.

This means that the actual cost to business has had at least another 2% added to the payroll over the past few years with some more yet to come. This doesn’t directly end up in the hands of consumers as spending dollars of course but it does put an inflationary burden on businesses as they have to absorb this increase as well. It’s also cumulative so if you are in the retail sector with significant labour costs in the supply chain there is pricing pressure because this rolls in increments from manufacturer to distribution, freight, retail employees to consumer prices. Interest rate changes won’t changes this either because it’s legislated. Even if the reporting of wages growth was zero in real terms payrolls are increasing along with other business costs in commercial leases, land taxes on these and the like. I’m not advocating for any change there btw. It just is what it is and there is only so far that interest rate pressure can push down on margins and volumes before there will be some serious cracks

0 replies Reply

Howard Posner February 7, 2024

That is the nature of the game. Stagnant, stagnant, stagnant, stagnant (half the investment punters give up and sell), stagnant, stagnant (most of the rest do the same), stagnant, stagnant, explodes recouping all the losses and more so those who hung on think they are clever. happens time after time.
Rents are actually less than they were 10 years ago in terms of net return on current capital value of asset, but don’t try and tell that to the poor bastards having to find an extra couple of hundred dollars a week out of their wages to pay the increases.
Proudhon was probably right, but it is the world we live in.

1 reply Reply

Michael Yardney February 7, 2024

So true Howard

0 replies Reply

amayzingone February 7, 2024

I just pulled out an old residential lease dated 2013 and found the rent on that was the same as it was in 2022/23.
So in reality rents didnt go anywhere for 10 whole years. A little up, then and a lot of down during COVID19, and then up again.
Its time for rents to play catchup with wages, property prices and the increased property holding costs.
Applying CPI increases using the RBA calculator from 2013 until today sees my rent of $690 in 2013 rising to $895 in 2023 which is exactly where we are now.
Just a Rental Reality check!

Here is the link if anyone wants to a CPI calulation:
https://www.rba.gov.au/calculator/annualDecimal.html

Jobs, Loans and Listings – What This Week’s Numbers Really Mean for Property | Property Insiders

Labour market: still Strong, still Tight

Home loan data: down for the quarter, but up year-on-year

Auctions: Melbourne leads the charge

The bottom line

Would you like to share your thoughts?

Guides