How much more will property prices fall? | Sky News interview [Video]

Property values are falling around the country. Downturn

According to CoreLogic  property values nudged 0.1% lower in April, the seventh consecutive month-on-month fall since values started retreating in October last year.

These declines were concentrated in the largest capitals, while interestingly  regional dwelling values edged 0.4% higher last month.

So how much lower will property prices fall?

Are we near the bottom or should buyers hold off and wait?

To get an understating of what’s going on in the market and what’s likely to happen to property values moving forward, I explain my thoughts on a recent interview on Sky News

Here’s what’s happening to property values around Australia

  • Melbourne and Sydney surged over the last few years, so their downturn wasn’t unexpected (APRA) but the downturn is generalized around Australia recent weakness likely linked to overall housing market sentiment and tighter credit policies impacting capital city markets
  • Sydney:   – 3.4% over the last year
  • Melbourne:  + 3.7 in last year, but -0.7% over the last quarter  
    1-percent
  • Brisbane:  +0.9 in last year, but -0.1% over the last quarter
  • Adelaide: -0.2% over the last quarter
  • Perth: -0.1% over the last quarter
  • Canberra: + 05% over the last quarter
  • Hobart:  + 3.61% over the last quarter
    • Combined regional cities: +1.3% over the last quarter

Here are some of the things we discuss…

How far will the markets fall – will they crash?

If we assume no further APRA intervention and rates remain the same there is no reason to think prices will fall significantly.

High end properties and cheap properties will fall more  Sydney Market Down

  • Sydney will probably drop 5-8% overall – say another 3 or 4% this year – but not all parts of the city – there is still strong demand for good homes in the inner and middle ring suburbs
  • Melbourne – -3% to steady
  • Brisbane 0-3%
  • Adelaide 0- 3%
  • Canberra – 1-4%
  • Hobart – 7 -10%
  • Perth – 0%

How long will this downturn last?

This will depend on local factors.

In general cycle will be driven by availability of finance, jobs creation and confidence

The Budget forecasts of economic growth, population growth, jobs growth are all positive for property.



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About

Michael is a director of Metropole Property Strategists who help their clients grow, protect and pass on their wealth through independent, unbiased property advice and advocacy. He's once again been voted Australia's leading property investment adviser and his opinions are regularly featured in the media. Visit Metropole.com.au


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