By Adam Hubbard June 3, 2026

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Australia Just Hit 28 Million People – And What That Means for Property Investors

Property Market News
Australia Just Hit 28 Million People – And What That Means for Property Investors

Key takeaways

Australia's population has passed 28 million - decades ahead of what the ABS forecast back in 2003, when planners expected that milestone wouldn't arrive until well into this century

The driver is migration, with net overseas migration consistently running above government forecasts despite repeated policy tightening

Housing construction is not keeping pace - the annual shortfall sits at between 55,000 and 80,000 dwellings, and the government's own Housing Accord target is already running more than a year behind schedule

More than 300,000 people are still being added to Australia's population every year, each needing somewhere to live in a market that's already undersupplied

The structural demand floor this creates is one of the strongest long-term supports for well-located residential property in our major cities

Inner and middle-ring suburbs in Melbourne, Sydney, Brisbane and Perth remain the best-positioned locations to absorb this demand and deliver capital growth over time

Investors who hold quality assets through the cycle will benefit most from population-driven demand that planners consistently underestimated

Australia's population just ticked past 28 million people, and the timing tells you everything you need to know about the forces driving our property market.

Back in 2003, the ABS published its official population projections and forecast that Australia would reach 26.4 million people by the year 2051 - assuming net overseas migration of around 100,000 people annually.

We've now passed 28 million, with the latest million added in less than two and a half years - equivalent to adding two entire Canberras to the country in the blink of an eye.

We didn't just beat the forecast. We blew past it by decades.

How did we get here so fast?

The short answer is migration - specifically, the decision to more than double Australia's net overseas migration intake from the mid-2000s onwards.

In the year to September 2025, net overseas migration of 311,000 people drove a 1.6% annual growth rate, and as of January 2026 there were 2.98 million temporary visa holders in Australia - the highest number on record.

While the government projected net overseas migration would fall to 260,000 in 2026, actual migration flows have consistently exceeded official forecasts.

So even the more recent projections have been catching up to reality rather than getting ahead of it.

This is worth sitting with for a moment….the ABS's 2003 medium-series forecast had Australia's population peaking at around 26.4 million - not in 2026, but by 2100.

We've already surpassed that ceiling by more than 1.5 million people and we're still growing.

Australia Projected Structure In 2026

The housing side of the equation

Obviously, more people need more homes, but the execution has been where Australia has consistently fallen short.

The Federal Government's National Housing Accord targets 1.2 million new homes by 2029, yet current dwelling approvals are running at 196,491 per year - 18% below the 240,000 annual rate the accord requires.

In other words the gap between what we need and what we're building is stubbornly wide.

In the first 18 months of the Housing Accord period, underlying demand was 287,000 dwellings while net new completions came in at 232,000 - leaving a shortfall of 55,000 dwellings.

Every year that gap isn't closed, the structural undersupply deepens further.

And construction is not simply a matter of approving more projects.

Even with new dwelling commencements up 11.6% year-on-year to the September quarter of 2025, a sustained recovery in completed supply is still likely to be only gradual.

Given the lag between commencement and completion - typically 9 to 15 months for houses, longer for apartments - any improvement in commencements won't translate into material completions until late 2026 at the earliest.

What this means for property investors

Australia's long-term property story rests on a structural demand that politicians can't legislate away, and developers can't build fast enough to eliminate.

The 28 million milestone just makes that case more visible.

Over the next decade, demand for housing is expected to benefit from a triple boost: rising population of around 4.1 million more people, 2.8 million additional jobs, and rising income of around $39,000 per household.

CBRE estimates approximately $960 billion of additional income in the system to support mortgage, rent and other living expenses.

Even with population growth forecast to ease to around 1.2% from 2026-27 onwards, Australia is still expected to add more than 300,000 people a year through the latter part of the decade.

That's 300,000 people who need somewhere to live, every year, in a market already running short.

Victoria, Queensland and Western Australia are projected to grow fastest over the next decade, while New South Wales is expected to remain the most populous state, reaching 9.6 million people by 2035-36.

These are the states where population-driven demand will continue to underpin property values at the city and suburb level.

The deeper point for long-term investors

Some commentators frame rapid population growth purely as a social or infrastructure challenge, and there are legitimate questions there about how we plan and fund the services that come with a bigger nation.

But for property investors, the arithmetic is straightforward. More people competing for a limited supply of well-located housing in our major cities means ongoing upward pressure on both rents and values.

I've always argued that capital growth is the engine of long-term wealth in property, and that cash flow keeps you in the game while growth gets you out of the rat race.

Population growth at this scale - decades ahead of what planners anticipated - is precisely the kind of structural tailwind that rewards investors who buy quality assets in the right locations and hold them through the cycle.

The investors who position themselves in inner and middle-ring suburbs of our major cities, in areas with strong owner-occupier appeal and proven long-term demand, are the ones who will look back on this period and understand why they stayed the course.

Work with Metropole to build your property strategy

If you'd like to understand how Australia's population growth translates into specific opportunities for your property portfolio, the team at Metropole can help.

We're much more than just another buyer's agent - we help our clients build a long-term strategic property plan designed to create intergenerational wealth. Find out how we can help you by clicking here and having a Wealth Discovery chat with one of our property strategists.

About Adam Hubbard Adam Hubbard is a senior Wealth Strategist at Metropole and his many years of real estate and wealth creation experience gives him a holistic perspective with which he helps his clients safely grow their wealth through property.