Key takeaways
CoreLogic estimates that the total value of Australian residential real estate was $10.6 trillion at the end of April 2024.
The monthly change in national home values held steady at 0.6% for the third consecutive month, taking the three-month change in values to 1.8%.
Over the three months to April, lower quartile dwelling values (3.0%) rose at more than twice the pace of upper quartile values (1.1%), with growth conditions continuing to be skewed toward the more affordable section of the market.
After recording a 9.2% gain over the 12 months to February, the annual growth trend in national home values has eased 50 basis points, to an 8.7% rise over the year to April.
Perth continues to lead capital growth performance in the greater capital city markets, with values up 6.0% in the three months to April and up 21.1% over the past year.
New listings trends have seen a slight uptick in recent weeks due in part to the earlier-than-usual Easter, with the four-week count of new listings coming in 18.3% above this time last year and 13.7% higher than the previous five-year average.
CoreLogic estimates that 38,317 homes were sold in April, taking the rolling annual count to 505,153. Compared to this time last year, annual national estimates are up 7.3%, with capital city sales volumes up 9.2% and combined regional sales up 3.9%.
The time it takes to sell a home continued to trend dropped slightly in April with declines in the combined regions (44 days) counteracting a marginal increase in the capitals (27 days).
National vendor discounting rates compressed slightly across the combined regional market over the three months to April, with regional sellers offering a median discount of -3.8% to secure a sale. This saw the national median vendor discounting rate shrink to -3.5%— the lowest national discounting rate since the three months to May 2022 (-3.3%).
Although down from the pre-Easter spike, capital city auction activity held relatively steady over the four weeks to April 28th, with an average of 1,957 auctions held across the capitals each week.
The 12-month change in national rental values has held relatively steady over the past three months, with rents rising 8.5% over the year to April. Underneath the headline figure, the pace of growth in regional and house rents has accelerated in recent months, while growth in unit and capital city rents has eased.
National dwelling approvals rose 1.9% in March, with a 3.6% increase in house approvals outweighing the -1.8% decline recorded in unit approvals. With 12,947 dwellings approved, the March results were down -2.2% compared to this time last year and were -24.4% below the decade average.
The value of home lending rose 3.1% through March, led by a 4.4% lift in first-home buyer financing and a 3.8% rise in investor finance. With $27.6 billion of new housing finance committed, the March result was the strongest monthly figure since August 2022 ($27.7 billion).
Want to know what's happening to the housing markets around Australia?
Well... this monthly collection of charts from CoreLogic paints an interesting picture.
The monthly change in national home values held steady at 0.6% for the third consecutive month, taking the three-month change in values to 1.8%.
Over the three months to April, lower quartile dwelling values (3.0%) rose at more than twice the pace of upper quartile values (1.1%), with growth conditions continuing to be skewed toward the more affordable section of the market.
There is no doubt the shortage of dwelling both for sale and for rent, at a time of skyrocketing population growth is going to continue throughout 2024.
And later this year as buyers and sellers realise that we have reached a peak of interest rates and that inflation is coming under control, consumer confidence will return and buyer and seller activity will pick up.
So I currently see a window of opportunity to get into the property market before "the crowd" does.
Residential real estate underpins Australia's wealth
- The total value of Australian residential real estate was $10.6 trillion at the end of April 2024.
- However, outstanding mortgages against all residential housing are only $2.3 trillion - a very comfortable 22% Loan to Value ratio.
- 56.2% of total Aussie household wealth is held in residential property - one of the many reasons neither the banks, the government nor the RBA wants a property crash.
National home values held steady
- The monthly change in national home values held steady at 0.6% for the third consecutive month, taking the three-month change in values to 1.8%.
- Over the three months to April, lower quartile dwelling values (3.0%) rose at more than twice the pace of upper quartile values (1.1%), with growth conditions continuing to be skewed toward the more affordable section of the market.
- After recording a 9.2% gain over the 12 months to February, the annual growth trend in national home values has eased 50 basis points, to an 8.7% rise over the year to April.
- However, our property markets are fragmented and while most segments growing, some are still languishing.
Our capital city markets are fragmented
At the beginning of this cycle the upper quartile of the market lead the upswing but now the lower quartile across every capital city has recorded a stronger outcome for housing values relative to its upper quartile counterpart over the past quarter.
The following chart shows how various segments of each capital city market are performing differently with median-priced properties performing well.
Each State is running its own race
- On the one hand, Perth property values are up 21.1% over the year and are now at a record high.
- On the other hand, Melbourne property values, decreased -0.1% over the last month and are still -4.1% below the record high, which was in March 2022.
- And in the previous darling of the housing markets, Hobart, house prices are -11.2 % below their record highs recorded in March 2022.
Another star performer was Brisbane where property values increased 16.1% over the last year and are currently at a record high.
And Sydney property values which performed strongly over the past year (+8.7%) are now only -0.8% below their record high reached in January 2022.
Here's how the Adelaide property market performed.
The Canberra housing market languished last year
Similarly, the Darwin housing market underperformed in the last year.
Here's how many properties are for sale at the moment
- In the four weeks to May 5th, new listings totalled 39,072 nationally.
- New listings trends have seen a slight uptick in recent weeks due in part to the earlier-than-usual Easter, with the four-week count of new listings coming in 18.3% above this time last year and 13.7% higher than the previous five-year average.
- The problem is that very few are A Grade homes or investment grade properties. Owners of quality properties are still holding onto them.
- At the national level, CoreLogic observed 138,500 for-sale listings over the four weeks to May 5th.
- Despite new listings tracking above average, overall listings levels have remained fairly subdued, coming in -3.9% below the numbers seen this time last year and -18.2% below the previous five-year average.
National sales activity continues to trend higher
- CoreLogic estimates that 38,317 homes were sold in April, taking the rolling annual count to 505,153.
- Compared to this time last year, annual national estimates are up 7.3%, with capital city sales volumes up 9.2% and combined regional sales up 3.9%.
We've moved into a more balanced market
- The national median time on the market dropped slightly in April (31 days), with declines in the combined regions (44 days) counteracting a marginal increase in the capitals (27 days).
- Across the individual capitals, Perth is recording the fastest sales time, with a median time on the market of 10 days, while Hobart, Canberra and Darwin have all seen the median time it takes to secure a sale exceed 40 days.
Vendor Discounting
- Vendor discounting rates compressed slightly across the combined regional market over the three months to April, with regional sellers offering a median discount of -3.8% to secure a sale.
- This saw the national median vendor discounting rate shrink to -3.5%— the lowest national discounting rate since the three months to May 2022 (-3.3%).
Auction activity across the combined capitals trended higher through March
- Although down from the pre-Easter spike (3,519), capital city auction activity held relatively steady over the four weeks to April 28th, with an average of 1,957 auctions held across the capitals each week.
- The combined capitals clearance rate averaged 66.1% over April, down 30 basis points from the average rate recorded over the four weeks to March 31st (66.4%).
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We update the weekly auction clearance results here each week.
We're experiencing a rental market crisis in Australia
- The 12-month change in national rental values has held relatively steady over the past three months, with rents rising 8.5% over the year to April.
- Underneath the headline figure, the pace of growth in regional and house rents has accelerated in recent months, while growth in unit and capital city rents has eased.
- Gross rental yields continued to expand in April to 3.75%—the highest national result since October 2019 (3.77%).
- While gross yields have seen a significant improvement from record lows recorded in January 2022 (3.16%), it's likely that highly leveraged investors' net yields continue to be weighed down by high interest rates.
Dwelling approvals and housing credit
- National dwelling approvals rose 1.9% in March, with a 3.6% increase in house approvals outweighing the -1.8% decline recorded in unit approvals.
- With 12,947 dwellings approved, the March results were down -2.2% compared to this time last year and were -24.4% below the decade average.
Finance and Lending
- The value of home lending rose 3.1% through March, led by a 4.4% lift in first-home buyer financing and a 3.8% rise in investor finance.
- With $27.6 billion of new housing finance committed, the March result was the strongest monthly figure since August 2022 ($27.7 billion).
- The value of first-home buyer financing rose by 4.4% in March to $5.2 billion.
- With first-home buyer financing rising faster than subsequent owner-occupiers, first-home buyers made up 29.7% of the value of owner-occupied lending, well above the decade average (24.5%).
Source of charts: CoreLogic Chart Pack, May 2024.
- Also read:This week’s Australian Property Market Update – Latest Data, State by State May 14th 2024
- Also read:Everything you need to know about the state of Australia’s property markets in 20 charts – May 2024
- Also read:Melbourne property market forecast for 2024
- Also read:Sydney property market forecast for 2024
- Also read:Brisbane’s property market forecast for 2024
