Which housing markets could get the biggest boost from rate cuts?

Key takeaways

Certain markets will see a bigger boost from rate reductions than others, and it may be because of market characteristics like price point, location and investor interest.

CoreLogic estimates based on previous periods of rate reductions that national dwelling values would increase an average of 6.1% for each 1 percentage point decline in the cash rate

Relatively expensive markets have historically shown stronger responses to reduced cash rate settings.

A reduction in the cash rate could spur a recovery trend in the high end of the Sydney and Melbourne housing market, which tend to be the bellwether for broader market recoveries in those cities.

In the current economic climate, these rate cuts should go a long way in boosting consumer confidence, signalling an end to the recent battle

Based on previous periods of rate reductions, CoreLogic estimates that national dwelling values would increase an average of 6.1% for each 1 percentage point decline in the cash rate- but Australia is not one housing market.

If history is anything to go by, certain markets will see a bigger boost from rate reductions than others, and it may be because of market characteristics like price point, location and investor interest.

Based on CoreLogic’s analysis, relatively expensive markets have historically shown stronger responses to reduced cash rate settings, especially in the housing sector (see below chart).

Key examples are houses in Leichhardt, Whitehorse and other inner markets of Sydney and Melbourne which have previously shown the strongest reaction to a reduction in the cash rate.

The tables below show the Australian house and unit markets that have had the strongest response to cash rate reductions nationally between 2015 and 2019.

These markets are also generally down from peak values, suggesting they have had a strong response to interest rate rises since May 2022.

Sydney and Melbourne

Sydney and Melbourne houses and units seem to have the most to gain from a reduction in interest rates.

In Leichardt, a one per cent reduction in interest rates is associated with a 19 per cent increase in house values historically.

Unit markets with the biggest response to rate falls have a high price point, a high concentration of investment ownership, or both.

In Sydney, Melbourne, Hobart and Canberra, many of the markets with a solid response to rate reductions are also seeing values well below their peak under recent interest rate rises, so easier access to credit may trigger a recovery trend in these markets.

Brisbane

The Brisbane markets that have historically had the strongest reaction to a reduction in interest rates are also relatively expensive.

With the exception of Browns Plains, each of the top ten house markets had a median house value of at least $1 million.

Adelaide and Perth

The relationship between the cash rate and home values is far less pronounced in markets across Adelaide and Perth, which had very different market performance throughout the 2010s - a reminder that housing markets respond to a broad range of factors beyond changes in the cost of debt.

In Perth and WA, market values were far more influenced by the boom-and-bust conditions in the mining sector than movements in the domestic cash rate target.

South Australian dwellings had slow and steady value changes throughout the 2010s, before seeing a rapid ‘catch-up’ in home values through the COVID period.

Changes to internal migration through the pandemic, namely a boost to arrivals from Victoria and a decline in departures from the state also aided growth.

Interestingly, WA and SA also saw virtually no response in the trajectory of home value to higher interest rates, which has further demonstrated the loose relationship between the cash rate and property values in these states.

Final thoughts

Overall, the markets that stand to gain the most from a cash rate cut could be those that have demonstrated more sensitivity to changes in financial and interest rate settings in the past.

These are typically the higher-end markets of Sydney and Melbourne, many of which have also seen a substantial reduction in home values amid rate rises.

A reduction in the cash rate could spur a recovery trend in the high end of the Sydney and Melbourne housing market, which tend to be the bellwether for broader market recoveries in those cities.

About Eliza Owen Eliza is head Of Residential Research Australia for Corelogic and a respected property market commentator. Eliza holds a first class honours degree in economics from the University of Sydney