I expect that the property market is going to pick up.
And I expect that the Melbourne and Sydney property markets will go gangbusters.
I have no idea when this will happen.
Now just to make things clear…those aren’t contradictory statements.
The first is an expectation, the other is the rejection of a forecast.
And if you want to be a successful property investor, you’re going to have to understand this important difference.
It’s one thing to look at history and see that the property market cycles with some frequency and then form a baseline of what to expect in the future with this knowledge.
However, it’s quite another thing to predict the precise timing of the turning points in the property cycle.
And it’s another thing entirely to devise a strategy that reacts to those predictions.
Property analysis isn’t black and white, yet some people believe they can predict markets and they tell you about (or sell you into) the next property “hot spot.”
There’s an important grey area, which is expecting certain events to occur without having an opinion on exactly when, where, why, or how.
I’ve been investing for over 40 years now and in that time there have been 8 significant property cycles.
I can use this as a very rough rule of thumb for the future, based on the idea that we’ve got even more positive fundamentals to drive our property markets than past generations had.
While there are many sound fundamentals underpinning the long-term prosperity of our property markets, two of the big ones that give me comfort are our significant population growth and the wealth of our nation.
This reassures me that my long term plans are sound and based on what has always worked – rather than trying to pick what is right for the current market.
Now I have an expectation:
If I plan on investing for the next 30 years, I should count on things getting ugly at least six times.
Maybe it’ll be a little more, maybe less.
But I have an expectation, a rough idea of how the game works.
Yet it’s not a forecast.
A forecast is, “The property market will turn in the second half of 2018” or “Australia will have a recession in the first half of 2021.”
That’s precision, with a disregard for both the history of people making such forecasts and the events that cause these turning points which, a lot of the time, is something that can’t be foreseen.
Here’s the big difference
The important difference between an expectation and a forecast is the impact it has on my behaviour.
If I expect property booms and property downturns I won’t be surprised when they come.
I know they’re a normal part of the game.
But since I’m not sure when they will come, I won’t attempt to do much about it.
Attempting to do something about it – trading, timing, buying and selling – is the root of most investors’ mistakes.
A forecast suggests that you know when something will happen, which is permission to act on it.
There’s little reason for a forecast other than acting on it.
But unfortunately this creates two problems:
- The false hope of knowing exactly when the property market will turn. Even the experts keep getting their forecasts wrong.
- The high-probability of regret from trading around these forecasts. Just see the results all the hot spotters have achieved, or the lost opportunity for those who tried to time the market.
In other words…
Expectations rather than forecasts make me a better property investor.
So knowing this, what should a property investor do in these uncertain times?
Well that’s exactly what I’ll be sharing with you at my upcoming National Property Market & Economic Updates in Brisbane, Sydney and Melbourne – in March and April.
The 3 main presenters, Dr. Andrew Wilson, Ken Raiss and I have collectively over 120 years’ experience in property, so we’ll teach you the rules for thriving, not just surviving in the current uncertain markets.
Just click here and find out more about these full day trainings (remember we have NO properties for sale), read about the bonuses for attending as well as my money back guarantee and reserve your place.
These are challenging times and 2019 will be a watershed year, so this is probably the most important year to attend these trainings in the last decade.
Even if you’ve heard us before please click here now and reserve your seat. As you can image much of the content will be different this year – it needs to be.
Sorry – no get rich quick schemes – just sound advice based on fundamentals and the years of experience that allows us to interpret them
I only do this once a year so please click here now and reserve your seat. Can you really afford to wait another 12 months to hear this type of information?
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