Key takeaways
Australia’s migration boom is slowing. Overseas migration is easing from its post-pandemic highs, which should moderate some housing demand.
Queensland and Western Australia continue to attract interstate migrants. NSW remains the biggest loser, while shifting population patterns are influencing housing demand across the states.
Regional property markets are increasingly fragmented. Some affordable inland centres are recording strong growth, while many pandemic-era coastal hotspots are losing momentum.
Auction markets are becoming more buyer-friendly. Clearance rates have softened as listings rise, giving buyers more negotiating power, particularly for compromised properties.
Long-term fundamentals matter more than recent growth. Investors should focus on scarcity, strong owner-occupier appeal, economic depth and quality assets rather than chasing yesterday’s hotspots.
Australia’s migration boom is losing momentum, and that raises some important questions for our property markets.
Migration has been a major driver of housing demand in recent years, particularly in our capital cities, where most new arrivals initially settle. However, the latest ABS figures confirm that the extraordinary post-pandemic surge is continuing to ease.
At the same time, the regional property story is becoming more complicated. Some regional markets are recording double-digit annual price growth, while others are flat or moving backwards.
Then there are our auction markets, where the early spring surge in listings has been met by more cautious and price-sensitive buyers.
In this week’s Property Insiders, Dr Andrew Wilson and I examine what falling migration means for housing demand, which regional markets are outperforming and what the latest auction results tell us about the balance between buyers and sellers.
Australia’s migration boom continues to ease
Australia’s migration cycle has clearly turned.
The nation experienced an extraordinary rebound in overseas migration after the borders reopened, as international students, skilled workers, temporary visa holders and returning Australians arrived in large numbers.
That surge played an important role in the rental crisis because population growth recovered much faster than the construction industry could deliver additional housing.
Watch this week’s Property Insiders show as Dr Andrew Wislon reports the latest ABS figures for the year to March 2026, showing migration is continuing to ease across the major states.
Sydney and Melbourne remain the preferred entry points for many overseas arrivals because they offer the deepest employment markets, large migrant communities, major universities and extensive transport connections.
That helps explain why population growth has placed such persistent pressure on the rental markets in our two largest cities.
However, overseas migration tells only part of the story because Australians are also moving between states in significant numbers.
Queensland continues to win the interstate migration contest
Watch this week's Property Insider as Dr. Andrew Wilson explains how Queensland remains the standout beneficiary of interstate migration, gaining a net 14,718 people over the year to December 2025.
Western Australia also performed strongly, gaining 10,314 residents, while Victoria recorded a modest net gain of 82.
South Australia lost 1,208 residents through interstate movements, while New South Wales experienced a substantial net loss of 20,818.
These figures help explain some of the difference in property-market performance between the states.
Queensland continues to benefit from people seeking relative affordability, warmer weather and lifestyle advantages, while its economy has generated employment across construction, health, education, tourism and professional services.
Western Australia has also attracted residents through its relatively affordable housing, strong labour market and resources-driven economy.
However, interstate migration can be cyclical. People move toward states offering better employment prospects and more affordable housing, but those advantages can narrow as property prices and rents rise.
Regional markets are having a moment, but I'd still be cautious
Watch this week’s Property Insiders chat, as Dr Andrew Wilson looks at the growth in regional housing markets and you'll see some extraordinary results.
The strongest performers were generally the more affordable inland centres rather than the expensive coastal lifestyle markets that boomed during the pandemic.
I see this as an important shift.
- Also read:Migration Is Falling: What Happens to Australian Property Prices Now? | Property Insiders
- Also read:This week’s Australian Property Market Update – Latest Data, State by State September 22nd 2026
- Also read:Latest Property Price Forecasts. Australian Property Market Outlook 2026-2027: Navigating a Market Correction
- Also read:National Weekly Auction Report – September 19th 2026 | Clearance Rates Ease as Auctions Surge
- Also read:Adelaide housing market update | September 2026
Some coastal markets experienced years of exceptional growth as remote working and lifestyle migration brought forward demand. Now that affordability has deteriorated, and more employees are returning to workplaces, parts of that pandemic premium are being reassessed.
These results reinforce the point that there is no single Australian property market, and certainly no single regional property market.
Regional centres have different economies, demographic profiles, supply pipelines and housing preferences.
Some are major employment hubs with hospitals, universities, government services and diversified industries. Others depend heavily on a small number of employers or a single economic sector.
Regional markets also tend to be smaller and less liquid than our capital cities. A relatively modest change in buyer demand or the number of properties listed for sale can have a significant impact on median prices.
That means recent double-digit growth should be treated as a starting point for further research rather than a reason to buy.
A useful question to ask is whether a particular location has the capacity to support stronger demand and higher property values over the next decade.
That requires population growth, diverse employment, rising household incomes, infrastructure investment, constrained supply and a sufficiently large pool of affluent owner-occupiers
I remain cautious about regional investment because many locations lack the economic depth and sustained household income growth required to deliver reliable long-term capital growth.
While selected regional centres will perform well, I continue to believe that most investors will achieve more consistent results by owning scarce, investment-grade properties in the affluent inner and middle-ring suburbs of our major capital cities.
Auction Clearance Rates Ease as Auctions Surge
Most auction markets reported lower clearance rates from the usual surge in pre-Grand Final listings over the past week.
The national weekend auction market reported an average clearance rate of 50.6% over the past week which was lower than the 51.9% reported over the previous week and again well below the 72.3% reported over the same week last year.
Although auction markets reported the typical surge in listings over the past week, numbers remain well below the results over the same weekend last year, reflecting continued reticence from sellers.
What does this mean for property investors?
Slowing migration will moderate one source of housing demand, but it won’t remove Australia’s underlying supply shortage.
Population growth remains positive, households are continuing to form, and the construction industry is still failing to deliver enough housing in the locations where people want to live.
At the same time, regional property performance shows why investors must look beyond broad headlines.
A market that grew 15% or 17% over the past year may already have enjoyed much of its current upswing. Buying after a period of rapid growth can expose investors to years of underperformance if prices have moved ahead of local incomes and economic fundamentals.
Even then, location is only part of the equation. Investors need to buy the right property within that market because secondary assets, oversupplied apartments and highly replaceable housing can underperform even in a growing region.
The auction results also confirm that this is a market where buyers can afford to be patient. Well-located, high-quality properties will still attract competition, but compromised properties are taking longer to sell and vendors with unrealistic expectations are being forced to adjust.
In my mind, the current conditions favour strategic investors with a long-term perspective, sound finance structures and adequate cash-flow buffers.
Rather than chasing the regional locations that topped last year’s growth tables, I would concentrate on properties with scarcity, strong owner-occupier appeal and the ability to outperform through several property cycles.
That is how you build a resilient property portfolio, rather than one that depends on yesterday’s momentum continuing.
