By Michael Yardney September 9, 2024

A A A

This week’s Australian Property Market Update – Latest Data, State by State September 10th 2024

Property Market News
This week’s Australian Property Market Update – Latest Data, State by State September 10th 2024

Key takeaways

Our property markets are continuing to rise, but more slowly than earlier in the year.

CoreLogic estimates the combined value of residential real estate rose to $10.9 trillion at the end of July. I remember when it hit $9 trillion before the pandemic and everyone was excited.

Auction markets moved through a 4th consecutive week where more than 2,000 homes went under the hammer, with a preliminary auction clearance rate of 71.7%, up from 70.2% the week prior (revised down to 64.4% on finalised numbers).

The preliminary clearance rate has held up amid the rise in auction volume and despite a broader rise in advertised stock levels and evidence of some momentum leaving the growth trend.

This week, CoreLogic Research reports that:

Sydney property prices remained flat over the last week, increased 0.2% over the last month and are 4.7% higher than they were 12 months ago.

Melbourne property prices fell -0.1% over the last week, fell -0.2% over the last month, and are -1.2% lower compared to 12 months ago.

Brisbane property prices increased by 0.2% over the last week, increased 0.9% over the last month and are 15.0% higher than they were 12 months ago.

Overall, Australian capital dwelling prices increased by 0.5% over the last month and are now 7.2% higher than they were 12 months ago.

And it's likely property prices and rents are going to keep increasing throughout 2024.

This current property cycle has been driven by an undersupply of good properties relative to current demand pushing up property values and rents there was nothing to suggest there will be any significant change in the near future.

Unfortunately, the undersupply properties is going to persist for some time with all commentators that there is no way we're going to hit the housing targets required to meet our demand.

Remember when the headlines were filled with predictions of an imminent recession in Australia?

Economists and commentators were almost unanimous in their gloomy forecasts: with interest rates rising sharply, the economy was expected to stall, and unemployment was projected to climb.

Many of these predictions made sense at the time —higher interest rates typically slow consumer spending, and in turn, cool down the economy.

But as we look around today, that dreaded recession has not materialized.

And what about the forecast of a fixed interest rate mortgage cliff? That didn't materialise dig it.

Our housing markets have remained remarkably resilient.

And based on the latest home lending figures, it's likely that our markets will enjoy a busy spring time.

With the value of new home lending rising 3.9% in July to $30.6 billion, it suggests Australians are buying $1billion worth of property every day.

The value of new investor loans rose 5.4 per cent to $11.7 billion, which was 35.4 per cent higher than July 2023.
The value of owner-occupier loans rose 2.9 per cent to $18.9 billion, 21.4 per cent higher than July 2023.
The value of new owner-occupier first home buyer loans rose 0.8 per cent in July, which was 19.7 per cent higher than July 2023.

This week, CoreLogic reports that:

Sydney property prices remained flat over the last week, increased 0.2% over the last month and are 4.7% higher than they were 12 months ago.
Melbourne property prices fell -0.1% over the last week, fell -0.2% over the last month, and are -1.2% lower compared to 12 months ago.

Brisbane property prices increased by 0.2% over the last week, increased 0.9% over the last month and are 15.0% higher than they were 12 months ago.

Overall, Australian capital dwelling prices increased by 0.5% over the last month and are now 7.2% higher than they were 12 months ago.

Clearly, the property cycle is moving on but our markets are very fragmented.

Source: CoreLogic September 9th 2024

Of course, these are "overall" figures - there is not one Sydney or Melbourne or Brisbane property market.

And various segments of each market are performing differently.

At the beginning of this cycle the upper quartile of the market lead the upswing but now the lower quartile across every capital city has recorded a stronger outcome for housing values relative to its upper quartile counterpart over the past quarter.

The following chart shows how various segments of each capital city market are performing differently with median-priced properties performing well.

To help keep you up-to-date with all that's happening in property, here is my updated weekly analysis of data and charts as of 9th September 2024 provided by CoreLogic, and realestate.com.au.

Preliminary clearance rate nudges higher week-on-week

Remember... Auction clearance rates are a great "in time" indicator of both buyer and seller sentiment.

The preliminary clearance rate has held up amid the rise in auction volume and despite a broader rise in advertised stock levels and evidence of some momentum leaving the growth trend.

2,065 homes went to auction last week, down from 2,315 the week prior and lower than a year ago when 2,275 homes were auctioned.

See Corelogic's full auction report below.

Current property asking prices

Property asking prices are a useful leading indicator for housing markets - giving a good indication of what's ahead.

Here is the latest data available:

Sydney

Property type	Price ($)	Weekly Change	Monthly Change %	Annual % change
All Houses	1,917,235	-1.235	0.0%	3.9%
All Units	817,609	-4.209	-0.3%	9.1%
Combined	1,472,811	-2.437	0.0%	4.7%

Source: SQM Research

Melbourne

Property type	Price ($)	Weekly Change	Monthly Change %	Annual % change
All Houses	1,238,039	1.961	0.1%	4.9%
All Units	609,971	0.419	-0.3%	3.8%
Combined	1,041,193	1.478	0.0%	4.5%

Source: SQM Research

Brisbane

Property type	Price ($)	Weekly Change	Monthly Change %	Annual % change
All Houses	1,159,379	2.962	2.3%	17.9%
All Units	643,702	-0.202	0.8%	20.4%
Combined	1,030,703	2.173	2.1%	18.2%

Source: SQM Research

Perth

Property type	Price ($)	Weekly Change	Monthly Change %	Annual % change
All Houses	1,063,218	7.371	2.8%	25.1%
All Units	556,073	0.839	0.5%	22.3%
Combined	931,048	5.669	2.5%	24.5%

Source: SQM Research

Adelaide

Property type	Price ($)	Weekly Change	Monthly Change %	Annual % change
All Houses	946,041	9.961	2.1%	21.4%
All Units	467,732	4.168	1.4%	10.1%
Combined	860,199	8.921	2.0%	20.1%

Source: SQM Research

Canberra

Property type	Price ($)	Weekly Change	Monthly Change %	Annual % change
All Houses	1,175,647	-7.035	-2.6%	7.5%
All Units	590,422	4.328	0.5%	-1.4%
Combined	961,834	-2.884	-1.9%	5.0%

Source: SQM Research

Darwin

Property type	Price ($)	Weekly Change	Monthly Change %	Annual % change
All Houses	653,674	5.926	-0.4%	-3.6%
All Units	382,089	-0.423	0.6%	1.6%
Combined	547,056	3.434	-0.1%	-2.3%

Source: SQM Research

Hobart

Property type	Price ($)	Weekly Change	Monthly Change %	Annual % change
All Houses	790,593	3.497	0.8%	-1.9%
All Units	492,492	6.417	-2.8%	-0.4%
Combined	745,591	3.938	0.4%	-1.8%

Source: SQM Research

National

Property type	Price ($)	Weekly Change	Monthly Change %	Annual % change
All Houses	935,263	1.344	0.3%	8.0%
All Units	556,394	-1.606	0.4%	8.3%
Combined	853,993	0.711	0.3%	7.9%

Source: SQM Research

Cap City Average

Property type	Price ($)	Weekly Change	Monthly Change %	Annual % change
All Houses	1,390,085	1.057	0.7%	7.7%
All Units	690,777	-2.514	-0.2%	9.1%
Combined	1,183,796	0.004	0.6%	7.7%

Source: SQM Research

The value of property asking prices as a leading indicator for housing markets is quite significant.

In fact it's more valuable than median prices which can be quite misleading.

Let's delve into why this is the case and how it impacts the real estate market.

Early Market Sentiment Indicator: Asking prices often reflect the current sentiment of sellers in the real estate market.

If sellers are confident, they might set higher asking prices, anticipating strong demand.
Conversely, if sellers are uncertain or perceive a market downturn, they might lower their asking prices to attract buyers.
This makes asking prices a real-time indicator of market sentiment, often preceding changes in actual sales prices.
Predictive of Future Price Trends: Trends in asking prices can be predictive of where the actual property prices are headed.
For example, a consistent rise in asking prices over a period can signal an upcoming rise in transaction prices.
Impact of Economic Factors: Economic factors such as interest rates, employment rates, and broader economic health influence asking prices.
For instance, changes in the Reserve Bank of Australia's policies or shifts in the job market can quickly reflect in the asking prices, providing insights into how these factors are influencing the housing market.
Regional Variations: In a diverse market like Australia's, asking prices can also provide insights into regional disparities.
For instance, the property markets in Melbourne and Sydney might behave differently from those in Brisbane or Perth. Asking prices can give early indications of these regional trends.
Influence of Supply and Demand: Asking prices are also a response to the balance of supply and demand in the market.
In areas with limited supply and high demand, asking prices tend to be higher and vice versa.

However, it's important to note that while asking prices are a valuable indicator, they should not be used in isolation.

Other factors like actual sales prices, time on the market, auction clearance rates, and economic conditions also play crucial roles in understanding the property market dynamics.

Last weekend's auction report

Preliminary clearance rate holds up amid rising auction volumes

The preliminary clearance rate has held up amid the rise in auction volume and despite a broader rise in advertised stock levels and evidence of some momentum leaving the growth trend.

2,065 homes went to auction last week, down from 2,315 the week prior and lower than a year ago when 2,275 homes were auctioned.

Melbourne saw the most auctions last week, with 932 homes going to auction, down from 1,052 the week prior.

The preliminary clearance rate, at 71.1%, ticked a little higher relative to the previous week (70.0% which was revised down to 62.9% once finalised).

Sydney hosted 774 auctions last week, down from 874 the week prior, with a preliminary clearance rate of 73.2%, up from 71.3% over the previous week (which was revised down to 65.3% on final numbers).

The volume of auctions across the smaller markets was led by Brisbane, with 152 auctions and a preliminary clearance rate of 62.1%.

Adelaide held 146 auctions, with 80% successful on the early numbers, and 45 auctions were held across the ACT with a 65.5% clearance rate.

The volume of auctions is set to rise this week with around 2,480 homes currently scheduled for auction, increasing to approximately 2,780 the following week as the spring selling season gathers pace.

Our rental markets

The national CoreLogic hedonic rent index was unchanged for a second consecutive month in August, and rent values declined in Sydney for a second consecutive month.

Nationally, rent values were up 7.2% in the year to August, which is the lowest annual growth rate since May 2021.

Annual rent growth is now slowing in every capital city market, except for Hobart, which is coming off a dip in rent values through 2023.