A rat race of population growth for Queensland

A few weeks ago the ABS released some updated population growth figures.

In short, for the year ending September 2021, Australia’s population grew by 70,000 people.

The big winners in the population growth stakes were:

• Queensland, up 58,000;
• New South Wales, up 24,000 and
• Western Australia, up 18,000.

Victoria lost some 33,000 people over that twelve-month period.

When I present stats about population growth – and especially when asked by friends or relatives around the dinner table (or more likely firepit these days) – I see eyes glaze over.

Many cannot process what, say an increase like 70,000, actually looks like.

So, when answering such questions, l like to provide the answers as a weekly figure.

Table 1 outlines such:

Therefore, Queensland’s total population growth is increasing by 1,100 people every week; whilst Tasmania’s (and despite what the locals will tell you) is only seeing its population lift by four (4) people each week.

That is just 190 people over the last 12 months.

The long-trend interstate migration results for both Queensland and Tasmania are charted below:

Many people in business applaud high population growth numbers.

There is a lot of debate that population growth without accompanying economic grunt doesn’t help much when it comes to the monetary welfare of the local population.

And more bums on seats means more cars.

The latest figures (2021) suggest that for every 1,000 increase in population across Australia equates to 785 additional cars.

This figure is 830 cars per 1,000 in Qld and SA.

And rises to 870 in WA and 955 in Tasmania.

On one of my recent regular work trips to Queensland, many punters wanted to tell me about the rapid rise in net interstate migration to the sunshine state.

Yes, again as at the September Quarter last year, the net interstate migration result saw 1,400 people per week move to Queensland.

This was up from 600 people per week over the same twelve-week period a year ago.

Some 60% of the most recent interstate migrants to Queensland came from NSW, with another 30% coming from Victoria.

Is this sustainable?

Hmmm, I don’t think so.

I think the recent flooding; cooling NSW and Victorian housing markets; office callbacks and the removal of most Covid-related restrictions will most likely see interstate migration patterns settle back down to the longer-term averages.

If I am correct, then Queensland's net interstate movement will still average something like 800 new people per week.

It really is a rat race after all.

About Michael Matusik Michael is director of independent property advisory Matusik Property Insights. He is independent, perceptive and to the point; has helped over 550 new residential developments come to fruition and writes his insightful Matusik Missive