Key takeaways
Our property markets are continuing to rise in value, but more slowly than earlier in the year.
CoreLogic estimates the combined value of residential real estate rose to $11 trillion at the end of September. I remember when it hit $9 trillion before the pandemic and everyone was excited.
2,820 auctions were held last week, the second-highest volume through the spring season to date and the fifth-highest volume of auctions through 2024 so far.
The preliminary auction clearance rate came in at 65.8% across the combined capitals.
This week, CoreLogic Research reports that:
Sydney property prices remained flat over the last week, fell -0.1% over the last month and are 3.5% higher than they were 12 months ago.
Melbourne property prices fell -0.1% over the last week, also fell -0.2% over the last month, and are -2.2% lower compared to 12 months ago.
Brisbane property prices increased by 0.1% over the last week, increased 0.6% over the last month and are 12.9% higher than they were 12 months ago.
Overall, Australian capital dwelling prices increased by 0.2% over the last month and are now 6% higher than they were 12 months ago.
And it's likely property prices and rents are going to keep increasing throughout 2024.
This current property cycle has been driven by an undersupply of good properties relative to current demand pushing up property values and rents there was nothing to suggest there will be any significant change in the near future.
Unfortunately, the undersupply properties is going to persist for some time with all commentators agreeing that there is no way we're going to hit the housing construction targets required to meet our demand.
The number of private property investors in Australia is dwindling, with recent data showing a significant drop.
This shift will only worsen Australia’s rental shortage and increase rents.
Rising interest rates, regulatory pressures, increased taxes, and high compliance costs have driven many investors to sell or pause further investment, with particular impact noted in Victoria due to higher land taxes and strict tenancy regulations.
For decades, private investors have provided over 90% of Australia’s rental housing, with the proportion of taxpayers declaring rental income quadrupling from just 5 per cent in 1980 to 21 per cent by 2014, but recent data shows a striking drop in their numbers, posing a real threat to an already strained market.
The absolute number of property investors dropped to 2.29 million in 2021-22 from a peak of 2.39 million in 2019-20.
Not surprisingly, with fewer private investors rental properties are in short supply, causing rents to rise and vacancy rates to drop below 1% in some areas.
To attract investors back into the market, I believe we need stability in policy, reduced regulatory and tax burdens, and new incentives for rental property purchases.
These changes could restore investor confidence and relieve pressure on the rental supply.
Without significant policy shifts that support private investors, Australia’s rental crisis will continue to escalate.
In my mind, encouraging private investment is essential for building a resilient, balanced rental market that can provide long-term, affordable housing for all Australians.
Source: AFR
On the auction front... 2,820 auctions were held last week, the second-highest volume through the spring season to date and the fifth-highest volume of auctions through 2024 so far.
The preliminary auction clearance rate came in at 65.8% across the combined capitals
According to CoreLogic, this is the second highest volume of auctions through spring season to date
This week, CoreLogic also reports that:
- Sydney property prices remained flat over the last week, fell -0.1% over the last month and are 3.5% higher than they were 12 months ago.
- Melbourne property prices fell -0.1% over the last week, also fell -0.2% over the last month, and are -2.2% lower compared to 12 months ago.
- Brisbane property prices increased by 0.1% over the last week, increased 0.6% over the last month and are 12.9% higher than they were 12 months ago.
Overall, Australian capital dwelling prices increased by 0.2% over the last month and are now 6% higher than they were 12 months ago.
Clearly, the property cycle is moving on but our markets are very fragmented.
Source: CoreLogic November 11th 2024
Of course, these are "overall" figures - there is not one Sydney or Melbourne or Brisbane property market.
And various segments of each market are performing differently.
At the beginning of this cycle the upper quartile of the market lead the upswing but now the lower quartile across every capital city has recorded a stronger outcome for housing values relative to its upper quartile counterpart over the past quarter.
The following chart shows how various segments of each capital city market are performing differently with median-priced properties performing well.
To help keep you up-to-date with all that's happening in property, here is my updated weekly analysis of data and charts as of 11th November 2024 provided by SQM Research, CoreLogic, and realestate.com.au.
Current property asking prices
Property asking prices are a useful leading indicator for housing markets - giving a good indication of what's ahead.
Here is the latest data available:
Sydney
| Property type | Price ($) | Weekly Change | Monthly Change % | Annual % change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All Houses | 1,949,999 | 12.901 | 1.4% | 4.5% |
| All Units | 835,684 | -5.284 | -0.3% | 7.1% |
| Combined | 1,498,411 | 5.148 | 1.0% | 4.7% |
Source: SQM Research
Melbourne
| Property type | Price ($) | Weekly Change | Monthly Change % | Annual % change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All Houses | 1,249,865 | -0.465 | 0.4% | 3.3% |
| All Units | 612,873 | -1.585 | 0.1% | 3.0% |
| Combined | 1,049,674 | -0.991 | 0.3% | 3.0% |
Source: SQM Research
Brisbane
| Property type | Price ($) | Weekly Change | Monthly Change % | Annual % change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All Houses | 1,182,356 | -1.084 | 0.2% | 16.8% |
| All Units | 668,027 | 1.423 | 0.8% | 23.2% |
| Combined | 1,053,738 | -0.544 | 0.2% | 17.6% |
Source: SQM Research
Perth
| Property type | Price ($) | Weekly Change | Monthly Change % | Annual % change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All Houses | 1,086,352 | 9.997 | 1.5% | 25.4% |
| All Units | 579,731 | 2.199 | 2.4% | 27.2% |
| Combined | 954,039 | 7.875 | 1.6% | 25.6% |
Source: SQM Research
Adelaide
| Property type | Price ($) | Weekly Change | Monthly Change % | Annual % change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All Houses | 946,363 | -3.163 | -0.9% | 15.9% |
| All Units | 473,203 | 1.092 | 1.8% | 8.0% |
| Combined | 861,376 | -2.417 | -0.6% | 15.1% |
Source: SQM Research
Canberra
| Property type | Price ($) | Weekly Change | Monthly Change % | Annual % change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All Houses | 1,178,362 | -1.500 | 1.0% | 3.4% |
| All Units | 599,488 | 0.637 | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| Combined | 965,524 | -1.150 | 0.8% | 2.2% |
Source: SQM Research
Darwin
| Property type | Price ($) | Weekly Change | Monthly Change % | Annual % change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All Houses | 687,272 | 1.758 | 2.6% | -0.3% |
| All Units | 383,138 | -1.472 | -0.4% | 1.6% |
| Combined | 567,906 | 0.502 | 1.8% | 0.1% |
Source: SQM Research
Hobart
| Property type | Price ($) | Weekly Change | Monthly Change % | Annual % change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All Houses | 805,052 | 5.857 | 1.0% | 1.6% |
| All Units | 476,314 | 0.504 | -1.8% | -9.3% |
| Combined | 755,277 | 4.999 | 0.8% | 0.4% |
Source: SQM Research
National
| Property type | Price ($) | Weekly Change | Monthly Change % | Annual % change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All Houses | 952,602 | 7.664 | 0.9% | 8.3% |
| All Units | 562,507 | -2.266 | -0.5% | 8.3% |
| Combined | 868,678 | 5.364 | 0.7% | 8.2% |
Source: SQM Research
Cap City Average
| Property type | Price ($) | Weekly Change | Monthly Change % | Annual % change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All Houses | 1,413,652 | 9.837 | 1.3% | 8.2% |
| All Units | 703,503 | -4.505 | -1.0% | 8.0% |
| Combined | 1,203,467 | 5.372 | 0.9% | 7.9% |
Source: SQM Research
The value of property asking prices as a leading indicator for housing markets is quite significant.
In fact it's more valuable than median prices which can be quite misleading.
Let's delve into why this is the case and how it impacts the real estate market.
- Early Market Sentiment Indicator: Asking prices often reflect the current sentiment of sellers in the real estate market.
If sellers are confident, they might set higher asking prices, anticipating strong demand.
Conversely, if sellers are uncertain or perceive a market downturn, they might lower their asking prices to attract buyers.
This makes asking prices a real-time indicator of market sentiment, often preceding changes in actual sales prices. - Predictive of Future Price Trends: Trends in asking prices can be predictive of where the actual property prices are headed.
For example, a consistent rise in asking prices over a period can signal an upcoming rise in transaction prices. - Impact of Economic Factors: Economic factors such as interest rates, employment rates, and broader economic health influence asking prices.
For instance, changes in the Reserve Bank of Australia's policies or shifts in the job market can quickly reflect in the asking prices, providing insights into how these factors are influencing the housing market. - Regional Variations: In a diverse market like Australia's, asking prices can also provide insights into regional disparities.
For instance, the property markets in Melbourne and Sydney might behave differently from those in Brisbane or Perth. Asking prices can give early indications of these regional trends. - Influence of Supply and Demand: Asking prices are also a response to the balance of supply and demand in the market.
In areas with limited supply and high demand, asking prices tend to be higher and vice versa.
However, it's important to note that while asking prices are a valuable indicator, they should not be used in isolation.
Other factors like actual sales prices, time on the market, auction clearance rates, and economic conditions also play crucial roles in understanding the property market dynamics.
READ MORE: The latest median property prices in Australia’s major cities
Last weekend's auction report
Second highest volume of auctions through the spring season to date
- Also read:Avoid these 12 reasons Property Investors Fail to build a Multi Million Dollar Property Portfolio
- Also read:Latest property price forecasts for 2025 revealed. What’s ahead in our housing markets in the next year or two?
- Also read:This week’s Australian Property Market Update – Latest Data, State by State November 12th 2024
- Also read:Everything you need to know about the state of Australia’s property markets in 20 charts – November 2024
- Also read:Melbourne property market forecast for 2025
There were 2,820 auctions held last week, the second-highest volume through the spring season to date and the fifth-highest volume of auctions through 2024 so far.
The preliminary auction clearance rate came in at 65.8% across the combined capitals, 2.4 percentage points higher than the previous week but below the average through spring to date (67.1%).
Melbourne hosted the most auctions last week with 1,293 homes taken to market, which is the third-highest weekly volume of auctions through the spring season so far.
66.5% of auctions have returned a successful result based on the preliminary collection, up from 62.4% over the previous week and roughly in line with the spring season average of 66.4%.
1,073 auctions were held in Sydney last week, the third-highest volume through the year to date and the second-highest week of auctions through spring so far.
68.2% of auctions returned a positive result on the preliminary numbers, up from 65.5% the week prior and only slightly below the spring season average of 68.4%.
Sydney’s preliminary auction clearance rate has held below the 70% mark for six of the past seven weeks.
Across the smaller capitals, Brisbane saw the most auctions held with 175 homes going under the hammer, however, this was the lowest weekly volume in five weeks.
53.2% of Brisbane auctions have been reported as successful so far, up from 52.3% the previous week but below the spring-to-date average of 57.4%.
Adelaide saw 160 homes go to auction, with 70.1% selling so far.
94 auctions were held across the ACT with a preliminary clearance rate of 45.2%, the lowest preliminary clearance rate since the early phase of the pandemic in April 2020.
22 auctions were held in Perth with 53.8% selling so far, and only three auctions were held in Tasmania.
We are expecting to see over 2,900 auctions held this week before scaling back a little to around 2,550 the week after.
Our rental markets
National rents rose by 0.2% in October, a subtle bounce back from the weaker growth over the previous three months, but less than a third of the 0.7% monthly rise recorded in October of the past three years.
Annual rental growth has dropped to 5.8%, the smallest annual rise in the national rental index since the 12 months ending April 2021.
With rents a significant component in the CPI calculation, the slowdown in rental growth is a positive signal for inflation, as CPI-rent data has dropped to 6.7% in Q3 2024 from a high of 7.8% in Q1.
The easing in rental demand correlates with a slowdown in net overseas migration and an increase in average household sizes as the effects of the pandemic ‘shrink’ trend wear off.
Sydney
| Property Type | Rent ($) | Weekly change | Monthly change | 12 Months change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All Houses | $1,047.65 | 7.35 | 0.7% | 3.8% |
| All Units | $692.27 | 0.73 | -0.6% | 2.6% |
| Combined | $836.45 | 3.38 | 0.1% | 3.2% |
Source: SQM Research
Melbourne
| Property Type | Rent ($) | Weekly change | Monthly change | 12 Months change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All Houses | $743.41 | 3.59 | -0.3% | 5.6% |
| All Units | $544.49 | -0.49 | -1.0% | 4.2% |
| Combined | $626.75 | 1.23 | -0.6% | 5.0% |
Source: SQM Research
Brisbane
| Property Type | Rent ($) | Weekly change | Monthly change | 12 Months change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All Houses | $724.62 | -0.62 | -1.0% | 1.9% |
| All Units | $577.73 | -1.73 | 0.0% | 5.6% |
| Combined | $658.50 | -1.13 | -0.6% | 3.3% |
Source: SQM Research
Perth
| Property Type | Rent ($) | Weekly change | Monthly change | 12 Months change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All Houses | $788.86 | 2.14 | -1.0% | 7.0% |
| All Units | $618.70 | -0.70 | 0.2% | 13.6% |
| Combined | $716.31 | 1.00 | -0.5% | 9.4% |
Source: SQM Research
Adelaide
| Property Type | Rent $) | Weekly change | Monthly change | 12 Months change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All Houses | $659.06 | -0.06 | 0.0% | 9.4% |
| All Units | $501.70 | 2.30 | -1.9% | 15.1% |
| Combined | $605.29 | 0.80 | -0.5% | 11.1% |
Source: SQM Research
Canberra
| Property Type | Rent ($) | Weekly change | Monthly change | 12 Months change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All Houses | $763.63 | 5.37 | 2.9% | 5.6% |
| All Units | $557.96 | 2.04 | 0.3% | -1.0% |
| Combined | $651.59 | 3.46 | 1.7% | 2.3% |
Source: SQM Research
Darwin
| Property Type | Rent ($) | Weekly change | Monthly change | 12 Months change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All Houses | $720.34 | 7.66 | -4.7% | -2.5% |
| All Units | $519.53 | 7.47 | 9.9% | 13.1% |
| Combined | $601.01 | 7.55 | 2.3% | 5.0% |
Source: SQM Research
Hobart
| Property Type | Rent 9$) | Weekly change | Monthly change | 12 Months change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All Houses | $537.11 | -1.11 | 0.1% | 2.7% |
| All Units | $453.03 | -8.03 | 0.4% | -0.3% |
| Combined | $503.40 | -3.87 | 0.2% | 1.6% |
Source: SQM Research
National
| Property Type | Rent ($) | Weekly change | Monthly change | 12 Months change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All Houses | $701.00 | 0.00 | -0.6% | 5.4% |
| All Units | $548.00 | -1.00 | 0.0% | 7.5% |
| Combined | $629.96 | -0.46 | -0.3% | 6.3% |
Source: SQM Research
Cap City Average
| Property Type | Rent ($) | Weekly change | Monthly change | 12 Months change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All Houses | $839.00 | 9.00 | 0.2% | 5.1% |
| All Units | $619.00 | 2.00 | -0.5% | 4.6% |
| Combined | $721.87 | 5.27 | -0.1% | 4.9% |
Source: SQM Research
Sellers of good properties are on strike
New listings levels continued to hold above average, with 39,994 new listings observed nationally over the four weeks to September 1st.
Winter historically has been a seasonally slow period for listings.
However, listing activity over the final month of winter was 4% above this time last year and 16.7% above the previous five-year average.
The problem is that very few are A Grade homes or investment grade properties. Owners of quality properties are still holding onto them.
At the national level, there were 155,875 total listings observed over the four weeks to November 3rd, 2024.
The spring selling season has continued to ramp up, with 45,155 newly advertised listings counted over the four weeks to November 3rd.
This is 1.3% higher than the flow of new listings seen this time last year and is 0.8% above the historic five-year average.
Source: CoreLogic November 2024
Vendor metrics
As the following chart shows, houses are still being snapped up quickly by eager buyers.
At a national level, properties are taking slightly longer to sell than they were during the property boom of 2020 and 2021.
However, the number of days to sell a property is still relatively low (a sign of the tight supply situation for good properties), and vendor discounting is still at very low levels.
In general, houses are selling quicker than apartments, but the shortage of good properties on the market is seeing A-grade properties selling quickly with minimal discounting.
