Stuff worth knowing | Population + growth

When you read, hear, or are told something statistical-based it is helpful to have a base case to make a comparison. Street Crowd

This base case intel is the ‘bird’s eye’ statistical perspective – a helicopter’s view so to speak – whilst what we mostly hear or are told is from a ‘worm’s eye’ viewpoint or from personal perception.

For example, I was told over the Christmas break by a friend that Hobart was the fastest-growing Australian capital city and with just under half-million residents, ‘Slowbart’ was set to overtake Canberra in size.

My friend meant well but a quick review of Table 1 below shows he was talking bullocks.

Population Growth

He did make, it must be said, a somewhat amusing quip about which capital was the slowest.

What about regional Australia?

Moreover, I kept on reading how regional Australia is going to take the ‘lion’s share’ of the country’s population growth in coming years.

I don’t know what these peeps mean by ‘lion’s share’ but a quick Google search (whilst we still can!) suggests it means the ‘largest proportion’ or ‘major share’.

Yet tables 1 and 2 show that 80% of the recent population growth takes place in our capitals and when you include the outer conurbations of our major capitals (Gold Coast, Sunshine Coast, Newcastle, etc) the capital city metropolises attract 90% of the current population gains.

Top 20 Other Areas Of Growth

It will take more than Covid19 to turn this ‘Pasha Bulker’ towards regional Oz. Rail Queensland Roads

More concerning is the persistent claim – often used by investment sellers trying to flog Queensland housing – that the Sunshine State attracts 1,000 new interstate residents per week.

I received two spruiky emails over the last week holding such statements.

Table 3 shows that this statement is inflated 2.5 times, with the most recent net interstate movement to Queensland being closer to 400 per week.

Components Of Population Growth

It does help to keep this type of reference material handy.

Keeping a few of the key stats in your head pays dividends too.

Why not revisit the tables before your next driving staycation and impress your friends and relations when someone asks, ‘how many people live here?’

Instead of the usual guesswork, you can answer with some authority. Bonus points galore.

And if you were smart you would raise the question and make a wager on the closest answer.

See the Matusik Missive can help you in numerous ways!

YOU MAY ALSO BE INTERESTED IN READING:

Stuff Worth Knowing | Some interesting housing demographic numbers

Stuff worth knowing | Future Housing Demand

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Michael Matusik

About

Michael is director of independent property advisory Matusik Property Insights. He is independent, perceptive and to the point; has helped over 550 new residential developments come to fruition and writes his insightful Matusik Missive


'Stuff worth knowing | Population + growth' have 1 comment

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    February 26, 2021 Peter

    How can the state growth for WA be 25,000 when the graph supplied titled capital cities growth for Perth says 27,000 in the same corresponding period ?

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