5 things I learned this week that you should also know

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A lot can happen in one week in our property markets, can’t it?

So here’s a look back at some of the things I read or learned this week, that I believe you should also know.

1. Here’s what’s happening to Australia’s population thanks to Covid

The records continue to tumble when it comes to the impact of the pandemic on Australia’s population.

The imposition of international border restrictions from March 2020 saw Australia’s population grow by 35,700 people – the slowest pace since at least June 1981 when ABS records began.

Net overseas migration was 95,300 over the year to March, the first decline since 1946.

Unfortunately, the slowest population growth in a century and an extended period of international border closures is constraining our economy, particularly the labour market, given Australia’s aging population.

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2. Housing boom sets 17-year sales record

Not only have property prices taken off over the past year, but the number of homes changing hands has also hit the highest level since 2004.

Corelogic estimates there were almost 598,000 house and unit sales across Australia over the year ending August 2021.

This is a 42% lift on the annual sales of the previous 12 month period and 31% above the decade average and 24% higher than the 20-year average.

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3. Rate hikes are further away than you think

A number of the regular property pessimists are doing the rounds of the media chasing headlines telling us how many Australians will fall into mortgage stress when interest rates go up; and that this will occur sooner rather than later.

However, Governor Lowe once again asserted that this won’t happen any time soon.

He said he finds it difficult to understand why the market is pricing in rate action 2022 and 2023 and confirmed that interest rate will only rise when inflation hits the target of between 2.5% to 3% and stays there for some time.

“ …the Board has said that it will not increase the cash rate until actual inflation is sustainably within the 2–3 per cent target range. It won’t be enough for inflation to just sneak across the 2 per cent line for a quarter or two. We want to see inflation around the middle of the target range and have reasonable confidence that inflation will not fall below the 2–3 per cent band again.”

RBA Gov Lowe: Delta, the Economy, and Monetary Policy

Clearly, our rising house prices are not going to affect the RBA’s interest rate decisions.

Rba Cpis

4. Queensland is in danger of being ‘loved to death’

More than 30,000 Australians relocated to the Sunshine State in 2020, a 15-year high.

In the three months to last December, almost 5000 moved north just from Sydney and Melbourne.

With a population of roughly 3.7 million, Queensland’s southeast corner is already the nation’s fastest-growing zone.

Forecasts suggest it will top five million by the middle of the next decade.

Brisbane’s median house price of $678,000 is less than half of Sydney’s and on par with that for Adelaide and Hobart.

Yet by the time the 2032 Olympic Games come to town, the figure is likely to be $1.5 million.

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5. Lift off for new listings, as Australia’s spring selling season begins in earnest

Every Australian capital city has seen a lift in the number of new real estate listings over recent weeks, with some of the largest listing increases recorded in those capitals navigating lockdown.
Despite this, the new listings trends remain below the five-year average in every capital apart from Adelaide, Perth, and Darwin.
Nationally, new listings bottomed out over the four weeks ending September 5th with just 31,731 new listings added to the market, the lowest volume since the seasonal low in January this year.
While new listings have since lifted by 9.8%, the number of new listings is currently -21.6% lower than the recent high in March and -3.9% below the five-year average for this time of year.
New Listings
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About

Michael is a director of Metropole Property Strategists who help their clients grow, protect and pass on their wealth through independent, unbiased property advice and advocacy. He's once again been voted Australia's leading property investment adviser and one of Australia's 50 most influential Thought Leaders. His opinions are regularly featured in the media. Visit Metropole.com.au


'5 things I learned this week that you should also know' have 4 comments

    Avatar for Michael Yardney

    July 26, 2021 Eleanor Joan

    Hi Michael,
    Point number 3- how does this take into account foreign property owners in Australia?

    Reply

      July 26, 2021 Michael Yardney

      That’s a great point Eleanor. Over the last couple of years foreign investors have become a smaller part of our property market, as banks both locally and overseas have been reluctant to lend to them, meaning more overseas investors are buying their properties with cash. However these statistics do not take into account overseas loans held against local properties

      Reply

    Avatar for Michael Yardney

    June 12, 2021 Rasanjali

    Will the middle ring suburbs like Rowville, Vic increase in price as well ?

    Reply

      June 12, 2021 Michael Yardney

      Rowville is not a middle ring suburb- it’s an outer suburb being around 31 km form the CBD, but it will keep growing in value, but not a s strongly as the more affluent “older money” suburbs

      Reply


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