A great leading indicator – a positive sign for our economy is that new job ads on SEEK rose 10.2% in October.
This followed on from the strong 8.8% month on month rise in September,
Not surprisingly NSW, Victoria and the ACT drove the result with those jurisdictions coming out of lockdown in the month.
This suggests labour demand is strong and should see the unemployment rate resume its pre-lockdown downward trend (after a little lag).
Industries most impacted by recent lockdowns have shown the greatest increase in job ads
Job ads have risen strongly in Hospitality & Tourism and in Retail & Consumer Products over the past two months.
These two industries were heavily impacted by lockdown restrictions in NSW, VIC and the ACT.
Over the past month ads in Hospitality & Tourism have risen 35.5%, after last month’s 31.0% rise.
Similarly Retail & Consumer Products rose 6.3%, coming after last month’s 22.6%.
Both industries are above their levels ahead of the recent lockdowns in VIC and NSW as employers look to a strong rebound in activity alongside reopening.
At an aggregate level, jobs ads in all former lockdown states are well above levels seen when lockdowns were first imposed.
- NSW is 13.5% above June 2021 levels,
- VIC is up 8.7% and
- ACT is up 5.6% from July 2021.
Job ads are at a new record high in NSW and Victoria.
Job ad trends show a tight labour market ahead
Two months of strong increases in job advertising suggests labour demand is strong, which should see the unemployment rate resume its pre-lockdown downward trend.
However, the fall in the participation rate over the last three quarters, reflecting the impact of lockdowns, may see the unemployment rate rise initially from its current of 4.6% as people return to the labour force, before trending down again.
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