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Riding the Immigration Wave: Australia’s unprecedented migration surge has now peaked - featured image

Riding the Immigration Wave: Australia’s unprecedented migration surge has now peaked

Australia's recent surge in migration, largely driven by the influx of international students and backpackers, appears to have reached its peak.

We have experienced a record-breaking rate of net overseas migration, estimated to have reached 500,000 people in the year to September 2023.

This spike in migration has been underpinned by international student numbers surpassing 650,000, with a substantial portion remaining in Australia on various post-study and pandemic visas.

However, this trend is set for a downturn according to a report by the Australian Financial Review.


Our rental crisis

This  recent surge in immigration to Australia has had a significant impact on the rental market, leading to a "rental crisis."

This influx, concentrated in our urban centres, has drastically increased demand for rental properties, resulting in a sharp rise in rents and a shortage of affordable housing options.

Looking ahead, as the migration peak begins to decline, there might be some relief on the horizon for the rental market.

While the expected reduction in the number of foreign visa holders and stricter immigration policies could ease the pressure on housing demands, this transition won't be immediate, and the rental market may take time to adjust to the changing migration patterns.

Look at the numbers

More than 160,000 foreign visa holders are expected to see their visas expire in the coming months, coupled with stricter immigration rules that are likely to reduce the number of new arrivals.

The so-called 408 COVID visas, held by approximately 120,000 individuals, are also nearing expiration.

Additionally, there has been an 80% decline in the number of state-issued skilled and regional visas for the financial year 2023-24 compared to the previous year.

Peak migration

The impact of this peak migration is multifaceted.

The Government has designed its Migration Program to address persistent and emerging skills shortages and to attract people with specialist skills that are difficult to find or develop in Australia.

As Australia is building the domestic pipeline of highly skilled workers, the permanent Migration Program will help:

  • build resilience
  • boost productivity
  • support our economy as it transitions to net-zero emissions.

While universities and colleges have benefited financially from the student boom, as already mentioned the surge in temporary migration has contributed to overheated rental markets in our urban centres.

This situation is becoming politically sensitive and might even influence voter sentiment in upcoming elections as the government has been criticized for allowing unrestrained migration numbers, which has exacerbated the challenges faced by renters.

According to the article in The Australian Financial Review, the peak in migration numbers may now start to diminish due to various factors.

These include existing changes aimed at curbing exploitative behaviors among some education agents and private colleges, and efforts to improve the quality of students arriving in Australia.

The Home Affairs Minister is expected to release a comprehensive migration review, which will likely include additional measures to slow the initial demand for visas and the retention of graduating students.

This review could influence visa processing times, which might affect future student enrollments.

Many commentators are suggesting the situation calls for a reassessment of the objectives of Australia's overseas students program.

The focus is shifting from quantity to quality, with suggestions to raise the standards for education courses that qualify for student visas.

Economic policy experts have also proposed increasing visa costs as a means to address the challenge, with the additional revenue potentially used to assist with heightened rental costs exacerbated by migration.

The bottom line.

In conclusion, while Australia's identity and growth have been significantly shaped by immigration, it's vital to recognize both the intended and unintended consequences of this trend.

As our country navigates the complexities of its recent migration surge and the ensuing rental crisis, it becomes clear that a balanced, forward-thinking approach to immigration is essential.

This involves not only embracing the positive impacts of immigration on cultural diversity and economic growth but also proactively addressing challenges such as housing affordability.

Continuing to welcome new residents while ensuring sustainable living conditions for all underscores Australia's commitment to being a harmonious, inclusive society.

About Chris Dang is an accountant by training and has worked in the Financial Planning industry for many years. Chris brings together property, accounting, and financial planning experience to help clients of Metropole Wealth Advisory create a holistic plan for their wealth.

Wasn't we presented on here with a 10 year or Immigration plan which showed approximate numbers? Has the government made a change? Or was the comment "peaked" referring to annual numbers not exceeding?

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