Property predictions for 2021 revealed

Where will our property markets be in 3 years?

That’s a question people are asking now that our real estate markets have moved to the next stage of the property cycle – one of falling property values in some areas and slower growth in other locations.

We are now seeing the predicted softening in both the Sydney and Melbourne markets after many years of strong growth.

First time home buyers are surging back into these markets replacing some of the demand left by retreating investors.

While there are a lot of property pessimist out there, one group of forecasts — those by BIS Oxford Economics suggests we are in for a soft landing. Sharemarket

Their Residential Property Prospects 2018-2021  report, which predicts the Australian property market outlook, has been getting a lot of press lately, so I thought I’d share their conclusions with you and give you my thoughts.

Of course we know the main purpose of property predictions- to make meteorologists look respectable.

Currently there is no shortage of “experts” trying predict the Australian property market outlook .

Then there are all those online research reports telling you where to invest in next growth hotspot.

Fact is: meteorologist tend to predict the weather better than property commentators predict future property capital growth.

Now this doesn’t mean you shouldn’t listen to the experts.

You should…

But you must also understand the level of accuracy of their predictions and take that into account when investing.

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Before I share them with you, I checked back on the track record of BIS’s past 3 year housing market forecasts and their track record is mixed.

Sometimes they overestimated property price growth and in other years they were unnecessarily pessimistic.

To be fair…few researchers make definitive forecasts, particularly beyond twelve months.

BIS Oxford Economics is the only company I know which produces residential real estate forecasts over a three year horizon and places them in the public domain in June each year.

So what’s ahead?

House price growth around Australia has been slowing in recent months, led by falling values in many locations in Sydney and Melbourne, Australia’s largest and most expensive property markets.

That trend looks set to continue driven by tighter lending standards from Australia’s banking regulator – APRA at a time that our banks being allergic to risk following their belting in the Royal Banking Commission, along with weak wage growth, affordability constraints, an increase in apartment supply.

These tighter lending conditions – the inability for many investors who could have in the past borrowed more –  are really having the same effect as a rise in interest rates.

They’ve slowed down demand especially the Sydney and Melbourne property markets

In short… we’re in for a soft landing with further price falls in the short term and the stabilising real estate values.

I’m calling it a soft landing because there are very few forced sales at present, and only recently (December 2018) APRA have lifted their restrictions on interest only loans to investors and the RBA Governor has encouraged the banks to lend more.

Back to BIS Oxfords forecasts….

Taking inflation into account, modest price declines were forecast in most capital cities over the next 12 months.

And then all capital cities will turn around and show price growth over the next 3 years, but the results will be fragmented.

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Source:  ABC

BIS suggests the current slowdown is due to tighter lending criteria, particularly a crackdown on interest-only loans, and record levels of dwelling construction being completed (above 200,000 per year), which may lead to an oversupply in some states.

Our research suggests there is already an oversupply of inner CBD apartments already – especially in the Brisbane, Perth, Canberra and to a much lesser extent Melbourne property market.

Prediction

And the good news is that our housing markets won’t crash, being underpinned by record low interest rates, a “relatively stable, albeit subdued, economic environment” and strong population growth.

But there should be some “upside” from 2021, as “high net overseas migration inflows [are] likely to be sustained in the coming years” — and “economic conditions begin to strengthen and supply falls back below underlying demand”.

Population growth will absorb the huge supply of new dwellings from the recent construction boom, although any growth in rental will be minimal, according to BIS.

Another Leading Economist also believes the property market will turn the corner in 2019

Trent Wiltshire – economist at Domain and author of  their Property Price Forecast report suggests that 2019 looks likely to be a year of greater stability.Happy Country

Just to be clear the report suggests that prices will fall further in the first half of 2019, but at a slower pace before the Australian property markets move into a phase of  moderate growth.

Domain expects that Sydney and Melbourne will be two of the weakest markets in 2019 and then forecast prices to grow at about 4 per cent in 2020.

Brisbane, Perth, Adelaide and Canberra will see modest house price growth over the next couple of years and Hobart house prices should stabilise after rapid growth in recent years.

Here are Wiltshire’s forecasts:

House price forecasts*
2018 (estimate) 2019 (forecast) 2020 (forecast)
Australia (combined capitals) -6% 1% 4%
Sydney -8% 0% 4%
Melbourne -9% -1% 4%
Brisbane 0% 4% 5%
Perth -5% 5% 3%
Adelaide 2% 2% 2%
Hobart 12% 2% 2%
Canberra 2% 4% 4%
* Annual change to December quarterNotes: Darwin excluded from forecast due to small volumes and market volatility. Stratified median house price forecasts.
Unit price forecasts*
2018 (estimate) 2019 (forecast) 2020 (forecast)
Australia (combined capitals) -3% 2% 3%
Sydney -3% 3% 5%
Melbourne -1% 1% 1%
Brisbane -6% 3% 3%
Perth -6% 2% 2%
Adelaide -1% 2% 2%
Hobart 0% 0% 3%
Canberra -5% 2% 2%
* Annual change to December quarterNotes: Darwin excluded from forecast due to small volumes and market volatility. Stratified median unit price forecasts.

While the drop in property values in Sydney and Melbourne in this 2017-2019 downturn are likley to be the largest since price falls since the late 1980s, they have come on the back of an extraordinary period of rapid growth.

Here’s another set of forecasts:-

QBE recently released their National Australian Housing Outlook and here is a summary of their forecast for 2021 Economic Indicators

economic indicator forecasts 2021

As you can see QBE are expecting:

  • Interest rates to rise a little over the next 3 years – but only by 0.5%, not the large increase in rates some are predicting, and this is unlikely to occur until 2020
  • Inflation slowly nudging its way up
  • Employment growth continuing, albeit at a slower rate and the unemployment rate holding steady
  • Continued strong population growth due to overseas migration
  • Our economy growing much the same as it has in the last few years.

As you can see they predict strong economic fundamentals – nothing to suggest a property crash ahead.

Domain and ABC gave details of the BIS Oxford report with the following State by State roundup:-

Sydney Property Market Forecast

Median house price in June 2018: $1.12 million

Forecast median house price June 2021: $1,150,000

Growth 2018 to 2021: 3% Sydney

The downturn in Sydney prices is expected to continue, with the report predicting house prices to fall by 2 per cent over the next financial year, before they start rising again

Sydney prices are expected to rise just 3 per cent by 2021, the slowest out of every Australian capital city.

The Harbour City has seen its prices soar by 85 per cent since 2013, with investors — which account for over half the values of mortgages in that period — pushing up prices to record highs.

In the face of retreating investor demand, the report forecasts that first-home buyer activity will support apartment prices.

While the top end of the market is suffering from lack of buyers for prestige home and the lower end markets like Sydney’s South West or the Central Coast are being held back by affordability issues, some of the inner and middle ring suburbs are strongly outperforming the averages.

BIS predicts Sydney’s median will fall by 2 per cent in the next financial year (2018/19), but an undersupply of dwellings will prevent larger price falls.

“By 2019/20, a combination of the correction in prices, the undersupplied market and some improvement in the economic outlook is forecast to see prices stabilise, and potentially show modest rises into 2020/21.”

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Melbourne Property Market Forecast

Median house price in June 2018: $870,000

Forecast median house price June 2021: $920,000

Growth 2018 to 2021: 6%

House prices in the Victorian capital surged 65 per cent in the last five years, reaching a peak of $892,000 in December 2017. Melbourne

Even though the Melbourne property market it is taking a breather after 5 years of exceptional growth, there is no sign of a collapse in sight.

Record population growth continues to fuel demand for housing, maintaining an overall undersupply in the market, the report stated.

While the national population grew by 1.6% in the year ended 30 June 2017, the highest growth was in Victoria, with a 2.3% increase in population and experts have predicted it is likely to surpass Sydney as the largest city of Australia by as early as 2031.

“While new dwelling completions are forecast to continue to rise through 2018, as the large pipeline of apartment buildings under construction work their way to completion, supply will be largely met by population growth,” the report’s author Mr Angie Zigomanis said.

House prices are forecast to tread water through to 2021, rising below the pace of inflation.

The report said the emerging downturn in new dwelling construction could spark a modest uptick in prices.

Although the wider market is not expected to tip into oversupply, BIS Oxford Economics anticipates there will be pockets of apartment oversupply given the extent of new unit construction compared to houses.

Unit prices are forecast to fall 2 per cent over the next three years.

BrisbaneBrisbane Property Market Forecast

Median house price in June: $550,000

Forecast median house price June 2021: $620,000

Growth 2018 to 2021: 13%

BIS’s forecast is that Brisbane will see the strongest growth over the next three years, jumping 13 per cent to a median of $620,000.

An oversupply in the apartment sector is dragging down Brisbane’s wider housing market, but the sunshine state is starting to see a boost in interstate migrants — particularly from Sydney — with prospective buyers lured by Brisbane’s comparative affordability.

“Some green shoots look like they are starting to emerge in the Brisbane market,” Mr Zigomanis said.

“However, any upturn is likely to be delayed until economic conditions pick up and excess stock is further absorbed.”

Brisbane real estate has been buoyed by steady population growth driving demand and underpinned by good economic fundamentals including jobs creation and a low unemployment rate.

Queensland has now become the number-one destination for internal migration, taking over from Victoria and overseas migrants are starting to see Brisbane as the place to be, bringing 12,847 residents into the city.

Canberra Property Market Forecast

Median house price in June 2018: $700,000   Canberra

Forecast median house price June 2021: $770,000

Growth 2018 to 2021: 10%

Canberra’s housing market has proven to be somewhat of a quiet achiever in recent years, with momentum tipped to continue in the short term.

House prices are forecast to increase 5 per cent over the next financial year before slowing over the following two years, culminating in an overall rise of 10 per cent by 2021.

Apartments were tipped to record price growth of 6 per cent over the next three years.

The report noted Canberra’s rental market was very tight, recording a 0.7 per cent vacancy rate in the March quarter.

Perth Property Market Forecast

Median house price in June 2018: $520,000

Forecast median house price June 2021: $570,000Perth Property Update

Growth 2018 to 2021: 10%

The Perth housing market has been in a slump for 4 years now.

Perth house prices have declined by 13 per cent since 2014 but the worst could be over.

“House prices in the Perth market appear to be bottoming out,” Mr Zigomanis said, pointing to stronger overseas migration and a reduction in the number of West Australians moving interstate.

Perth’s vacancy rate remains high at 5.1 per cent and rents have collapsed, falling by up to 30 per since since 2013.

The report predicted the recovery of the Perth market would be a “long, slow grind as the city has to work through a significant oversupply…”

Perth is expected to see “minimal growth” for the next couple of years, before it sees “stronger growth” in 2021.

Hobart Property Market Forecast

Median house price in June 2018: $485,000 Hobart 2

Forecast median house price June 2021: $525,000

Growth 2018 to 2021: 8%

Hobart has been the strongest property market over the last few years, but remember — it is a very small market which can be easily moved in either direction.

“However the current migration inflows largely comprise younger adults and families with children, suggesting people moving for Hobart’s affordability or expats coming back to raise a family,” he said.

The median house is tipped to rise by 5 per cent over the next year, and then slow in following years.

Both houses and unit prices are forecast to grow by 8 per cent by mid-2021.

Adelaide Property Market Forecast

Median house price in June 2018: $510,000 Adelaide

Forecast median house price June 2021: $555,000

Growth 2018 to 2021: 9%

With South Australia’s automotive manufacturing industry shutting down, its economy and property market are currently subdued.

A soft economic environment and lacklustre population growth will result in modest house price growth over the coming years, according to BIS.

“Economic conditions in South Australia are expected to remain subdued in the short term,” Mr Zigomanis said, pointing to a high unemployment rate and the shutdown of automotive manufacturing. “Purchasers are expected to become more cautious.”

BIS predicts its shipbuilding industry will drive future employment and slowly boost interstate migration into Adelaide, lifting its median house price to $555,000 by 2021

House prices are expected to grow by 9 per cent by 2021.

Darwin Property Market Forecast

Median house price in June 2018: $505,000

Forecast median house price June 2021: $520,000 Darwin

Growth 2018 to 2021: 5%

Darwin peaked in June 2014 and since then, house prices have nosedived 19 per cent

but the report’s authors said they expected them to have bottomed out.

A general oversupply means prices are forecast to remain flat over the upcoming financial year, followed by two years of limited growth.

House prices and unit prices are expected to life by 5 per cent and 4 per cent respectively.

WHAT CAN YOU DO TO STAY AHEAD IN THE CURRENT MARKET?

As signs point to softer growth conditions for Australian property over the coming months, independent professional advice and careful consideration will be as important as ever in navigating Australia’s varied market conditions.  

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If you’re looking for independent advice, no one can help you quite like the independent property investment strategists at Metropole.

Remember the multi award winning team of property investment strategists at Metropole have no properties to sell, so their advice is unbiased.

Whether you are a beginner or a seasoned property investor, we would love to help you formulate an investment strategy or do a review of your existing portfolio, and help you take your property investment to the next level.

Please click here to organise a time for a chat. Or call us on 1300 20 30 30.

When you attend our offices in Melbourne, Sydney or Brisbane you will receive a free copy of my latest 2 x DVD program Building Wealth through Property Investment in the new Economy valued at $49.

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'Property predictions for 2021 revealed' have 26 comments

  1. Avatar

    January 31, 2019 Financial Gladiator

    Interesting read and I’m glad I came across your very optimistic post and more importantly blog overall. Allow me to share a slightly more pessimistic view. I personally believe that it is still cheaper to rent than own in Australia in case of apartments if you calculated the holistic cost of owning and inflation. In my non expert view prices have to drop another 20ish % over the coming two years in Sydney and Melbourne. Why?
    1) China (Australia’s biggest trading partner) and the US (third biggest trading partner) will likely go into recession within the next 12 months.
    2) Australian government and the RBA changed legislation and interest rates respectively to allow large flows of foreign capital (mostly Chinese) to artificially inflate Australian prices unsustainably.
    3) Housing ownership fell drastically from about 70% to below 65% since the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) in 2007/2008
    4) Australia made it to a top ranking globally amongst all countries regarding the “household debt by GDP” (almost 123%)
    5) Property prices increased over 100% in Sydney and Melbourne since the GFC, far outpacing the growth of average wages.
    6) Chinese government has severely restricted Chinese capital to leave the country in 2017. And Chinese investors (together with speculative investors) were largely responsible for the inflation of the Australian housing market.
    7) While 2018 showed a large amount of Interest Only (IO) expiring, 2019 will have the highest number mortgages that will need to be renewed. The recent change of heart of APRA to loosing restrictions on banks regarding IO lending will only slow down the correction.
    8) Investor and PPOR homebuyer confidence is at an all time low and awareness of the perils of overleveraging and interest only rates is at an all time high.
    9) With net rental yields at an all time low (3%) in capital cities thanks to high levels of taxations (some of the highest in the World) falling average rents will force some investors to sell part of all of their investment properties. If rental yields equal inflation of 2.7% you made no money at all while bearing all the risk and work associated with owning an investment property.
    10) Affordability is a key concern for me: If the median income in say Melbourne is 80,610$ per annum, taxes and super takes shaves off some 23,409$ from the get go, average living expenses for a single person per year are 21,840$, and average rent expenses are in the ballpark of 18,040$ it would still take just shy of 10 years to save up for a deposit for an average house of 833,321$ (2018 Dec prices). All the meanwhile the person cannot fall sick, can’t take significant time off, can’t have children, have to live a pretty modest life and save nothing else but for the deposit. If the person has a partner they could probably make it in 3-4 years but still you cannot afford kids then or say a wedding.

    Reply

  2. Avatar

    January 12, 2019 BRENDON GILL

    It is strange how everybody in this country blames investors and builders for the high cost of houses, yet Australia’s cost of construction is 23% less than America and cheaper than most European cities however it has some of the most expensive lands in comparison to America and Europe, this is because state government’s artificially inflated land prices through blocking supply through planning delays and by adding taxes both state and federal, why do we not recognize that most houses are 40% higher because of these reasons, it is even stranger that governments point the finger at investors developers and builders for the reason for the high cost of housing when the problem is clearly policy set down by government that is the problem, GST, stamp duty, and many hidden charges that are really another form of tax, affordability for all Australians can happen if the government take a hard look at what they have created and stop burying there head in the sand, both Liberal and Labour state and Federal are complicit.

    Reply

  3. Avatar

    December 29, 2018 Lisa

    I am a migrant myself, I really appreciate there are so many opportunities in this country with wonderful people. Most people are trying to do the right things. I have worked and studied very hard in Australia and made a good life here like many migrants. The door to go back our own country is open every day, you choose to come and stay in Australia, so please be thankful for this country welcome you. Life is what you made of yourself. Please don’t blame this country. Please don’t expect free lunch and free housing as all our taxpayer, your fellow workers, has to work hard for your expectation. Let us all work hard as a team make this country greater for ourselves and our next generations.

    Reply

  4. Avatar

    December 27, 2018 Wayne Ehrlich

    I’ll take your predicted 13% increase for Brisbane, thanks. I have studied the stats and I think it will happen here IF the extra state immigration continues AND that all the approved inner city units are not ALL built.
    We have sat up here in Queensland with low growth rates for many years (read affordable) while Sydney and Melbourne have boomed and now there so may negative comments about the continuing “correction” down there. They must all be Harry Dent followers! I managed to attend Harry Dent on his recent tour BUT don’t accept his predictions verbatim. He has some good models and supporting data BUT it has to be appropriately interpenetrated. I could be a cynic and say he just comes out here when he know we are in a downtrend so he can sell his books and newsletters.
    I think Michale’s use of selected data providers is a much more balanced and rational.

    Reply

    • Michael Yardney

      December 29, 2018 Michael Yardney

      Thanks Wayne – let’s look back ina few years and see what has transpired

      Reply

  5. Avatar

    December 4, 2018 Peter Horsfield

    The median value in each city at the end of November 2018 was:

    • Sydney $821,438 not $1.12 million

    • Melbourne $656,163 not $870,000

    • Brisbane $493,041 not $550,000

    • Adelaide $433,464 not $510,000

    • Perth $448,336 not $520,000

    • Hobart $451,039 not $485,000

    • Darwin $426,141 not $505,000

    • Canberra $596,141 not $700,000

    Reply

    • Michael Yardney

      December 4, 2018 Michael Yardney

      Peter – if your pint is that property values have fallen since this article was first written you are correct. Does this change the fact that prices will recover and reach new highs? Not at all

      Reply

  6. Avatar

    December 3, 2018 Julie

    Thank you for your article and comments Michael.We do need a 360 degree approach to make our predictions and columns like yours are of value, whether people agree or not. I feel Media has a lot to answer for, we do need to be honest here and recognise that its no coincidence that what Media creates is usually the outcome. We know this each time there is an election (or the desire to remove a Prime-minister to sure up your own interests). Since 2010 it has been said by many economist that the GFC did not need to happen in Australia, it was a reaction from what people read in the medias “predictions”. People in Australia panicked and stopped spending, which in turn,,, resulted in our economy slowing. There are experts in the USA saying for the past few years, that the big end of town players are itching (pushing) for another crash because it’s where they make huge investments by snapping up bargains, feeding off others losses. I’m certainly no expert, but I have to question where the truth lies. What has really changed since Dec 2017 to swing the housing market into a negative direction when employment numbers are up, interest rates are low, population growth is strong and people are still spending on unnecessary items? Tightening up leading had to be done. I just hope and pray people have the sense to not listen to media this time, (Media moguls with good mates at the top end of town wanting to shift dollars to create bigger tax right offs) and people keep spending as normal. When the purses of the every day consumers close the economy stops and its a slippery slope from there. No one has a crystal ball, last time a very small number of experts got their predictions right .

    Reply

    • Michael Yardney

      December 3, 2018 Michael Yardney

      You’re right Julie – the crisis of investor confidence is being led by the media

      Reply

  7. Avatar

    November 19, 2018 Tony

    This article is insane. I have not seen anybody forecasting the growth of house market in the next five year. Most people believe the house price will dip another 30% in the next five year.

    Reply

    • Michael Yardney

      November 20, 2018 Michael Yardney

      You are right Tony – Australia has 25 million property experts – everyone has an opinion don’t they?
      And then there are some institutions with large research departments and the RBA. I know who’s opinions I’d rather trust

      Reply

  8. Avatar

    November 9, 2018 Jim

    On one hand you blame the media and then use the very information reported through the media to support your argument, ie the QBE national house forecast. You cherry pick the data that supports your view but are missing real numbers and data that has already happened.
    Fact: Sydney has dropped by 8.9% in the past 12 months
    Fact: It’s the fastest decline in prices in 3 decades
    Fact: It’s the second largest price correction since the 1990 recession
    Fact: Prices and demand are still softening in Sydney
    Fact: The auction clearance rate is the weakest since the GFC

    There is alignment with Macquarie Bank, Westpac, AMP and ANZ that prices in Sydney will decline by 20% from peak to trough when this correction is all said and done. Also, Herron Todd White’s property clock points to a similar outcome and if you’re on the ground in Sydney property markets, you can see in real time the pull back from buyers.

    Tighter lending practices are not abating and a federal election in the first half of next year will further suffocate activity and magnify the correction. Yes, many can ride the wave but the thought of a 3% increase by 2021 is unrealistic.

    Sydney will be down at least 15% by Feb and this December will be a bloodbath as buyers dessert the market and leave a huge volume of sellers clambering to find a buyer pre-Christmas and in many cases will significantly drop prices to avoid having a listing move into 2019.

    You can be the optimist but please don’t be the fool and ignore real facts about the Sydney market as it discredits all your information and makes it hard to believe anything you report. I’d think most would be happy if the market just stabilised by 2020.

    Reply

    • Michael Yardney

      November 9, 2018 Michael Yardney

      Jim
      You’re correct – some are predicting a blood bath – but they have been doing so for years. And I agree some segments of the Sydney property market will fall more than 20% – especially all those new apartments many of which were sold to unsuspecting investors. I’ve read the sources you’ve quoted and I’ve also read the comments from DR Phil Lowe – our RBA Governor – I don’t think he’s a fool – I’ll listen to him

      Reply

  9. Avatar

    September 25, 2018 steve weingarth

    At least you are realistic about a mild softening of prices in the major capitals and a long overdue rise in Brisbane,unlike the doom and gloom people interviewed on 60 Minutes recently.Fear generating predictions about price falls goes on every few years and some so-called news and current events programs are irresponsible in making these out to be accurate forecasts from experts.

    Reply

    • Avatar

      October 5, 2018 VICKI

      Agree with you on this – there is a lot of doom and gloom in the media at the moment.
      Also, I like Michaels quote: Fact is: meteorologist tend to predict the weather better than property commentators predict future property capital growth. This is very true.

      Reply

  10. Avatar

    July 30, 2018 Rastus

    It’s a sorry reflection of the times we live in when we celebrate the rising cost of providing shelter for your family. The social cost of both parents having to work in order to afford a home – kids in daycare, less disposable income to put to into their development… this is the situation for so many families now. This inconvenient truth is happily ignored by those who profit in the current market, and while money it to be made it is unlikely to change.

    Reply

    • Michael Yardney

      July 30, 2018 Michael Yardney

      Rastus I understand where you are coming from. But this is one of the prices we need to pay to be able to live in the best country in the world at the best time in history. Rather than lamenting it, we should be grateful the opportunities Australia offers

      Reply

      • Avatar

        November 28, 2018 Ahmed

        With due respect – basing your economy on deriving brain-drain and short term cash from third world country migrants, on one hand, and making it overly difficult for the locals to be able to afford dwelling…I see Australia going completely without wisdom and driven by greed. There is nothing about this to be referred in terms of being a ‘great country’.

        Reply

  11. Avatar

    June 29, 2018 harris

    Thanks – this is intersting. It will be interesting to look back in a few years and see it they’re right

    Reply

  12. Avatar

    June 29, 2018 CoreLogic

    always hit and miss with this guy

    Reply


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