Latest property price forecasts revealed. What’s ahead in the next year or two?

What’s ahead for our property markets in the next year or two?

That’s a question people are asking now that our real estate markets have turned the corner.

1sharemarketIt wasn’t that long ago that the media was predicting housing market Armageddon, but the property pessimists have been proven wrong (once again) as our property markets bottomed out in June 2019 and are now slowly retracing their steps.

The turn in Australia’s housing markets has been remarkable, with the rebound in prices considerably stronger than many expected

The upturn in the market that last month drove Melbourne’s strongest property price recovery ever and Sydney property recorded the fastest rebound decades

The change in sentiment was driven by the combination of lower interest rates, easier access to credit and increased certainty about housing taxation.

While the combined capital city market values are down just over 6.9% from their peak, Sydney property values fell 14.9% and Melbourne property values 11.1% from their peaks but as you can see from the following graph our our 2 big capital city markets have recovered and grown in value for the last 4 months.

Nationwide property prices are likely to continue to rise till the end of the year, especially in Sydney and Melbourne after which gains are likely to moderate in 2020

3 Month Change

 

Change In Dwellign

 

 

Source: Corelogic November 2019

 

So what’s ahead?

House prices across all our capital cities are expected to grow over 2020/21.

The combination of lower interest rates, easing lending serviceability buffers and increased consumer sentiment is expected to bring more buyers back into the market.

And with property values rising, sellers (who have generally been on strike) will slowly return to the market increasing stock levels.

Property prices are also expected to be supported by further employment growth and a lower unemployment rate as our Reserve Bank is hell bent on decreasing unemployment and pushing up wages.

However the pace of property price recovery may be limited because, while interest rate serviceability thresholds for most borrowers has been reduced, lenders are expected to maintain their more conservative approach towards assessing borrower income and expenses.

The ANZ Bank has recently revised their forecasts for house price growth over the next year and now expect overall property prices to rise nearly 6% in 2020 (compared to their previous forecast of 3%.)

Screenshot 2019 10 18 08.01.27

Source: ANZ Bank

Supply and demand

Continued strong population growth will be another key driver supporting our property markets.

Net overseas migration is forecast to average a net inflow of 243,000 people per annum in the next 3 years and most of these people have jobs and are at household formation age.

At the same time, new dwelling building approvals fell by 19% in 2018/19 and the forecast number of dwelling completions are likely to fall to 163,500 by 2020/21, which is well below underlying demand.

Sure at present some of our markets are oversupplied, but this is generally with the wrong kind of stock.

There are too many Lego Land high rise apartment buildings that owner occupier and tenants are now shying away from considering all the issues regarding building standards.

In fact, it’s likely many of these buildings will become the slums of the future as the stigma that taints all the high rise towers built over the last decade will take a long, long time to wear off.

Economic indicators

QBE has forecast the following economic indicators that will affect our property markets.

Economic Indicators

House price forecasts

Our research at Metropole suggests that prices overall capital city property values are likely to increase by around 5 % in 2020 – not the double digit growth some commentators are suggesting.

This will be lead by stronger growth in the Melbourne and Sydney property markets which are playing catch up after experiencing significant falls in the last few years.

The availability of finance will be the biggest headwind.

However, interest rates are falling, consumer confidence is rising and the banks are starting to loosen the screws and lend a bit more.

This has meant more people are applying for home loans, more people are coming to open for inspections and vendors who have sat on the sideline waiting for the market to turn our gaining confidence as auction clearance rates are rising (although on low numbers).

The following graphic from ANZ shows how historically rate cuts (the red squares) have always driven market rebounds

Screenshot 2019 10 18 08.10.23

At Metropole we are closely watching days on market (how long it takes a bend or to sell their home) waiting for this to drop and vendors discounting (how much a vendor needs to discount their asking price to affect a fast sale) as well as auction clearance rates as indicators of the strength of the market.

Clearly the trend in auction clearance rates has been positive since mid 2019.

Shane Oliver Auction Results

Source: Shane Oliver AMP

The most recent finance figures released in October 2019 show a clear lift in finance activity since mid year with a more even spread of finance approvals to owner occupiers and investors.

This is a very positive sign for our markets moving forward as finance approvals are a leading indicator – most people get their finance before they start looking for a new home or investment.

Screenshot 2019 10 13 11.43.47

Source: Westpac

 

In Domain’s mid year property report, economist Trent Wiltshire forecasts that property prices are likely to stabilise in Australia’s capital cities by the end of the year and will then exhibit moderate growth in 2020

2019 (six-month change) 2020 (annual change) 
Australia (combined capital cities)1%2% to 4%
Sydney2%3% to 5%
Melbourne1%1% to 3%
Brisbane1%3% to 5%
Perth0%0% to 2%
Adelaide1%1% to 3%
Hobart0%2% to 4%
Canberra2%4% to 6%

Source: Domain

Unit price forecasts

2019 (six-month change) 2020 (annual change) 
Australia (combined capital cities)1%1% to 3%
Sydney2%2% to 4%
Melbourne1%0% to 2%
Brisbane0%0% to 2%
Perth0%0% to 2%
Adelaide2%1% to 3%
Hobart2%3% to 5%
Canberra1%1% to 3%

Source: Domain

 

Sydney Property Market Forecast

After experiencing the largest correction in house prices in the last three decades, Sydney’s property market is now exhibiting the largest gains around the nation – but  it’s just playing catch up.

As always the Sydney housing markets are very fragmented and the increase in values is mainly occurring in the inner and middle ring more affluent suburbs.

The fact that Days on Market and Vendor Discounting is dropping and auction clearance rates are rising are all positive signs for Sydney property market

However, some segments of the Sydney property market are likely to keep falling (we’re looking at you off the plan properties and new apartments), and other segments (the outer suburban lower-priced properties) are just holding their own.

Sydney property investors are abandoning the off the plan apartment sectors and many of those who purchased off the plan a few years ago are now having trouble settling with valuations coming in on completion at well below contract price at a time when banks are more reluctant to lend on these properties.

SydneyBut in the background, strong economic growth and jobs creation is leading to population growth and ongoing demand for property in Sydney.

At the same time, international interest from tourists and migrants continues.

Sydney is currently offering investors an opportunity to buy established apartments in the eastern suburbs, lower north shore and inner west at a significant discount to what they would have paid a few years ago and the prospect of the market moving forward over the next few years.

It is a great countercyclical time to look at buying an investment grade property in Sydney

If you’d like to know a bit more about how to find these investment gems give the Metropole Sydney team a call on 1300 METROPOLE or click here and leave your details.

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Melbourne Property Market Forecast

Melbourne house prices turned the corner in mid 2019 and have been rising ever since

But the Melbourne property market is very fragmented, with the recovery trend more noticeable at the expensive end of Melbourne’s housing market, with values across the top quartile increasing by 2.7% over the past three months compared with a 1.4% rise across the lower quartile.

The local unit market is still showing a stronger trend relative to houses, with values up 2.4% over the past three months compared with a 1.6% lift in house values.Melbourne

The resilience across the apartment sector, despite higher supply levels, probably comes back to a combination of affordability constraints in the market as well as more first home buyers supporting housing demand across the lower price points of the market, thanks to the First Home Owner incentives.

At Metropole we’re finding the Melbourne property market is regaining its confidence and the underlying fundamental growth drivers remain strong.

For example, auction clearance rates are rising, albeit in much smaller volumes.

Overall property values will be underpinned by a robust economy, jobs growth Australia’s strongest population growth and the influx of 35% of all overseas migrants.

Remember…Melbourne rates as one of the 10 fastest-growing large cities in the developed world, with its population likely to increase by around 10% in the next 4 years.

If you’d like to know a bit more about how to find investment grade properties in Melbourne please in the balance of this year give the Metropole Melbourne team a call on 1300 METROPOLE or click here and leave your details.

Brisbane Property Market Forecast

Most property economists are now very positive about Brisbane property

The BIS Oxford Economics property forecast predicts Brisbane will see the greatest national gains in house prices, with Brisbane’s median house price is predicted to jump 20 per cent by 2022.

The Brisbane property downturn has been quite shallow compared to the big two capital cities, with local values only 2.4% below their peak.Brisbane Central Business District, Australia

This followed a relatively mild growth cycle where growth in housing values in Brisbane averaged only 1.4% per annum over the past five years, very different to the booming conditions of our two biggest capital cities.

But now Brisbane values have posted their third consecutive month of subtle gains, and house prices should continue rising, while the value of apartments will remain flat for a while.

With migration rates lifting, supply under control and generally healthy levels of housing affordability, the Brisbane housing market fundamentals are looking healthier compared to most other capital cities.

At the same time the underlying strong demand from home buyers and investors from the southern States at a time when yields are attractive and housing affordability is relatively healthy and putting a floor under property prices.

Brisbane’s economy is being underpinned by major projects like Queen’s Wharf, HS Wharf, TradeCoast, Cross River Rail, the second airport runway and the Adani Coal Mine, but jobs growth from these won’t really kick-off for a few more years.

There is minimal further downside for the Brisbane housing market and now is an excellent time to ride the next property wave in Brisbane

Our Metropole Brisbane team has noticed a significant increase in local consumer confidence with many more homebuyers and investors showing interest in a property.

At the same time we are getting more enquiries from interstate investors there we have for many, many years.

If you’d like to know a bit more about how to find investment grade properties in Brisbane please give the Metropole Brisbane team a call on 1300 METROPOLE or click here and leave your details.

Canberra Property Market Forecast

Canberra

Domain forecasts Canberra house prices to increase by 2 per cent and unit prices to increase by one per cent over the balance of this year and in 2020, they predict stronger house price growth of 4 to 6 per cent and modest unit price growth of one to 3 per cent.

This will make Canberra one of Australia’s strongest housing market in 2020, underpinned by strong population growth and low unemployment.

However, the ongoing high level of a new apartment building (unit, apartment and townhouse approvals over the past 12 months are 30 per cent higher than in the previous year) will keep unit prices from rising.

And the excessive Land Tax in Canberra will keep investors away.

Perth Property Market Forecast

PerthPerth property values have been falling for five years since mid-2014, but these are likely to bottom out over the next year and then after a period of flat and consolidating prices there is likely to be a gradual increase in home and apartment values in 2020.

However, it will take a long time for market sentiment to pick up in the Western Australian capital.

One of the positive factors for Perth will be rising population growth – forecast to be 1.5% in 2020, up from 0.9% in 2018.

Hobart Property Market Forecast

HobartHobart has been the best performing property market in the last three years, but its boom is now over.

Hobart house and unit prices increased by around 40 per cent over the past three years, but so far in 2019 prices have flatlined.

In 2020, Domain forecast house price growth of 2 to 4 per cent and price growth of 3 to 5 per cent for units.

Adelaide Property Market Forecast

AdelaideDomain forecasts ongoing modest property price growth in Adelaide over the balance of this year, with house prices expected to increase by one per cent and unit prices, forecast to grow by 2 per cent.

In 2020 they predict property price growth of 1 to 3 per cent.

Adelaide house prices have risen steadily at about 3 per cent per year in recent years (units have grown at about 2 per cent annually), although prices have stabilised in 2019.

WHAT CAN YOU DO TO STAY AHEAD IN THE CURRENT MARKET?

If you’re looking at buying your next home or investment property here’s 3 ways we can help you:

Sure our property markets are improving, but correct property selection is even more important than ever, as only selected sectors of the market are likely to outperform.

Why not get the independent team of property strategists and buyers’ agents at Metropole to help level the playing field for you?

We help our clients grow, protect and pass on their wealth through a range of services including:

  1. Strategic property advice. – Allow us to build a Strategic Property Plan for you and your family.  Planning is bringing the future into the present so you can do something about it now! Click here to learn more
  2. Buyer’s agency – As Australia’s most trusted buyers’ agents we’ve been involved in over $3Billion worth of transactions creating wealth for our clients and we can do the same for you. Our on the ground teams in Melbourne, Sydney and Brisbane bring you years of experience and perspective – that’s something money just can’t buy. We’ll help you find your next home or an investment grade property.  Click here to learn how we can help you.
  3. Wealth Advisory – We can provide you with strategic tailored financial planning and wealth advice. Click here to learn more about we can help you.

Please click here to organise a time for a chat. Or call us on 1300 METROPOLE.

 

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Michael is a director of Metropole Property Strategists who help their clients grow, protect and pass on their wealth through independent, unbiased property advice and advocacy. He's once again been voted Australia's leading property investment adviser and his opinions are regularly featured in the media. Visit Metropole.com.au


'Latest property price forecasts revealed. What’s ahead in the next year or two?' have 31 comments

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    August 20, 2019 Bernadette

    Predicting the property market is just that! a Predication. I attended a real estate seminar 1 year before GFC and some guy asked the question, What happens if the banks fail! The experts on the panel “laughed” … the rest of the story has been told!

    Reply

      Michael Yardney

      August 20, 2019 Michael Yardney

      Bernadette – you’re correct – the main use of property forecasters is to make meteorologists look good 🙂
      But it’s still importnnat to understand the fundamentals at play and how things could pan out

      Reply

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    July 15, 2019 David Spar

    Haha. Predict all you want. Stats and all. My advice…just make sure your cashflow is in check, don’t rely on one income, have buffers in place and weather the storm. Everyone is accountable for their own actions and the circumstances you are in are a result of your choices. Whether that be because you planned ahead or you didn’t, and now realise that you can’t make the right moves when opportunity arises. Those who have structured their portfolios and lives correctly will see good and bad times as a win-win. And, if you want to continue furthering your education and invest in yourself… Get onto Grant Cardone. Study those who are the most successful in their field. Good luck to all, otherwise.

    Reply

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    May 18, 2019 Nathan

    Hey can you please do my economics assignment

    Reply

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    January 31, 2019 Financial Gladiator

    Interesting read and I’m glad I came across your very optimistic post and more importantly blog overall. Allow me to share a slightly more pessimistic view. I personally believe that it is still cheaper to rent than own in Australia in case of apartments if you calculated the holistic cost of owning and inflation. In my non expert view prices have to drop another 20ish % over the coming two years in Sydney and Melbourne. Why?
    1) China (Australia’s biggest trading partner) and the US (third biggest trading partner) will likely go into recession within the next 12 months.
    2) Australian government and the RBA changed legislation and interest rates respectively to allow large flows of foreign capital (mostly Chinese) to artificially inflate Australian prices unsustainably.
    3) Housing ownership fell drastically from about 70% to below 65% since the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) in 2007/2008
    4) Australia made it to a top ranking globally amongst all countries regarding the “household debt by GDP” (almost 123%)
    5) Property prices increased over 100% in Sydney and Melbourne since the GFC, far outpacing the growth of average wages.
    6) Chinese government has severely restricted Chinese capital to leave the country in 2017. And Chinese investors (together with speculative investors) were largely responsible for the inflation of the Australian housing market.
    7) While 2018 showed a large amount of Interest Only (IO) expiring, 2019 will have the highest number mortgages that will need to be renewed. The recent change of heart of APRA to loosing restrictions on banks regarding IO lending will only slow down the correction.
    8) Investor and PPOR homebuyer confidence is at an all time low and awareness of the perils of overleveraging and interest only rates is at an all time high.
    9) With net rental yields at an all time low (3%) in capital cities thanks to high levels of taxations (some of the highest in the World) falling average rents will force some investors to sell part of all of their investment properties. If rental yields equal inflation of 2.7% you made no money at all while bearing all the risk and work associated with owning an investment property.
    10) Affordability is a key concern for me: If the median income in say Melbourne is 80,610$ per annum, taxes and super takes shaves off some 23,409$ from the get go, average living expenses for a single person per year are 21,840$, and average rent expenses are in the ballpark of 18,040$ it would still take just shy of 10 years to save up for a deposit for an average house of 833,321$ (2018 Dec prices). All the meanwhile the person cannot fall sick, can’t take significant time off, can’t have children, have to live a pretty modest life and save nothing else but for the deposit. If the person has a partner they could probably make it in 3-4 years but still you cannot afford kids then or say a wedding.

    Reply

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    January 12, 2019 BRENDON GILL

    It is strange how everybody in this country blames investors and builders for the high cost of houses, yet Australia’s cost of construction is 23% less than America and cheaper than most European cities however it has some of the most expensive lands in comparison to America and Europe, this is because state government’s artificially inflated land prices through blocking supply through planning delays and by adding taxes both state and federal, why do we not recognize that most houses are 40% higher because of these reasons, it is even stranger that governments point the finger at investors developers and builders for the reason for the high cost of housing when the problem is clearly policy set down by government that is the problem, GST, stamp duty, and many hidden charges that are really another form of tax, affordability for all Australians can happen if the government take a hard look at what they have created and stop burying there head in the sand, both Liberal and Labour state and Federal are complicit.

    Reply

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    December 29, 2018 Lisa

    I am a migrant myself, I really appreciate there are so many opportunities in this country with wonderful people. Most people are trying to do the right things. I have worked and studied very hard in Australia and made a good life here like many migrants. The door to go back our own country is open every day, you choose to come and stay in Australia, so please be thankful for this country welcome you. Life is what you made of yourself. Please don’t blame this country. Please don’t expect free lunch and free housing as all our taxpayer, your fellow workers, has to work hard for your expectation. Let us all work hard as a team make this country greater for ourselves and our next generations.

    Reply

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    December 27, 2018 Wayne Ehrlich

    I’ll take your predicted 13% increase for Brisbane, thanks. I have studied the stats and I think it will happen here IF the extra state immigration continues AND that all the approved inner city units are not ALL built.
    We have sat up here in Queensland with low growth rates for many years (read affordable) while Sydney and Melbourne have boomed and now there so may negative comments about the continuing “correction” down there. They must all be Harry Dent followers! I managed to attend Harry Dent on his recent tour BUT don’t accept his predictions verbatim. He has some good models and supporting data BUT it has to be appropriately interpenetrated. I could be a cynic and say he just comes out here when he know we are in a downtrend so he can sell his books and newsletters.
    I think Michale’s use of selected data providers is a much more balanced and rational.

    Reply

      Michael Yardney

      December 29, 2018 Michael Yardney

      Thanks Wayne – let’s look back ina few years and see what has transpired

      Reply

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    December 4, 2018 Peter Horsfield

    The median value in each city at the end of November 2018 was:

    • Sydney $821,438 not $1.12 million

    • Melbourne $656,163 not $870,000

    • Brisbane $493,041 not $550,000

    • Adelaide $433,464 not $510,000

    • Perth $448,336 not $520,000

    • Hobart $451,039 not $485,000

    • Darwin $426,141 not $505,000

    • Canberra $596,141 not $700,000

    Reply

      Michael Yardney

      December 4, 2018 Michael Yardney

      Peter – if your pint is that property values have fallen since this article was first written you are correct. Does this change the fact that prices will recover and reach new highs? Not at all

      Reply

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    December 3, 2018 Julie

    Thank you for your article and comments Michael.We do need a 360 degree approach to make our predictions and columns like yours are of value, whether people agree or not. I feel Media has a lot to answer for, we do need to be honest here and recognise that its no coincidence that what Media creates is usually the outcome. We know this each time there is an election (or the desire to remove a Prime-minister to sure up your own interests). Since 2010 it has been said by many economist that the GFC did not need to happen in Australia, it was a reaction from what people read in the medias “predictions”. People in Australia panicked and stopped spending, which in turn,,, resulted in our economy slowing. There are experts in the USA saying for the past few years, that the big end of town players are itching (pushing) for another crash because it’s where they make huge investments by snapping up bargains, feeding off others losses. I’m certainly no expert, but I have to question where the truth lies. What has really changed since Dec 2017 to swing the housing market into a negative direction when employment numbers are up, interest rates are low, population growth is strong and people are still spending on unnecessary items? Tightening up leading had to be done. I just hope and pray people have the sense to not listen to media this time, (Media moguls with good mates at the top end of town wanting to shift dollars to create bigger tax right offs) and people keep spending as normal. When the purses of the every day consumers close the economy stops and its a slippery slope from there. No one has a crystal ball, last time a very small number of experts got their predictions right .

    Reply

      Michael Yardney

      December 3, 2018 Michael Yardney

      You’re right Julie – the crisis of investor confidence is being led by the media

      Reply

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    November 19, 2018 Tony

    This article is insane. I have not seen anybody forecasting the growth of house market in the next five year. Most people believe the house price will dip another 30% in the next five year.

    Reply

      Michael Yardney

      November 20, 2018 Michael Yardney

      You are right Tony – Australia has 25 million property experts – everyone has an opinion don’t they?
      And then there are some institutions with large research departments and the RBA. I know who’s opinions I’d rather trust

      Reply

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    November 9, 2018 Jim

    On one hand you blame the media and then use the very information reported through the media to support your argument, ie the QBE national house forecast. You cherry pick the data that supports your view but are missing real numbers and data that has already happened.
    Fact: Sydney has dropped by 8.9% in the past 12 months
    Fact: It’s the fastest decline in prices in 3 decades
    Fact: It’s the second largest price correction since the 1990 recession
    Fact: Prices and demand are still softening in Sydney
    Fact: The auction clearance rate is the weakest since the GFC

    There is alignment with Macquarie Bank, Westpac, AMP and ANZ that prices in Sydney will decline by 20% from peak to trough when this correction is all said and done. Also, Herron Todd White’s property clock points to a similar outcome and if you’re on the ground in Sydney property markets, you can see in real time the pull back from buyers.

    Tighter lending practices are not abating and a federal election in the first half of next year will further suffocate activity and magnify the correction. Yes, many can ride the wave but the thought of a 3% increase by 2021 is unrealistic.

    Sydney will be down at least 15% by Feb and this December will be a bloodbath as buyers dessert the market and leave a huge volume of sellers clambering to find a buyer pre-Christmas and in many cases will significantly drop prices to avoid having a listing move into 2019.

    You can be the optimist but please don’t be the fool and ignore real facts about the Sydney market as it discredits all your information and makes it hard to believe anything you report. I’d think most would be happy if the market just stabilised by 2020.

    Reply

      Michael Yardney

      November 9, 2018 Michael Yardney

      Jim
      You’re correct – some are predicting a blood bath – but they have been doing so for years. And I agree some segments of the Sydney property market will fall more than 20% – especially all those new apartments many of which were sold to unsuspecting investors. I’ve read the sources you’ve quoted and I’ve also read the comments from DR Phil Lowe – our RBA Governor – I don’t think he’s a fool – I’ll listen to him

      Reply

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        December 3, 2018 Anthony

        Eyes off the blinkers,let’s not forget and factor in interest only loans rolling over to principle and interest. https://www.afr.com/news/economy/rba-flags-dangers-of-480b-in-interestonly-loan-resets-over-the-next-four-years-20180413-h0yppv

        Reply

          Michael Yardney

          December 3, 2018 Michael Yardney

          Haven’t forgotten that Anthony. The thing is – new interest only loans are well within the parameters required by APRA so many borrowers will change banks and refinance if there will be an issue

          Reply

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    September 25, 2018 steve weingarth

    At least you are realistic about a mild softening of prices in the major capitals and a long overdue rise in Brisbane,unlike the doom and gloom people interviewed on 60 Minutes recently.Fear generating predictions about price falls goes on every few years and some so-called news and current events programs are irresponsible in making these out to be accurate forecasts from experts.

    Reply

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      October 5, 2018 VICKI

      Agree with you on this – there is a lot of doom and gloom in the media at the moment.
      Also, I like Michaels quote: Fact is: meteorologist tend to predict the weather better than property commentators predict future property capital growth. This is very true.

      Reply

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    July 30, 2018 Rastus

    It’s a sorry reflection of the times we live in when we celebrate the rising cost of providing shelter for your family. The social cost of both parents having to work in order to afford a home – kids in daycare, less disposable income to put to into their development… this is the situation for so many families now. This inconvenient truth is happily ignored by those who profit in the current market, and while money it to be made it is unlikely to change.

    Reply

      Michael Yardney

      July 30, 2018 Michael Yardney

      Rastus I understand where you are coming from. But this is one of the prices we need to pay to be able to live in the best country in the world at the best time in history. Rather than lamenting it, we should be grateful the opportunities Australia offers

      Reply

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        November 28, 2018 Ahmed

        With due respect – basing your economy on deriving brain-drain and short term cash from third world country migrants, on one hand, and making it overly difficult for the locals to be able to afford dwelling…I see Australia going completely without wisdom and driven by greed. There is nothing about this to be referred in terms of being a ‘great country’.

        Reply

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    June 29, 2018 harris

    Thanks – this is intersting. It will be interesting to look back in a few years and see it they’re right

    Reply

    Avatar

    June 29, 2018 CoreLogic

    always hit and miss with this guy

    Reply


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