Australia’s economy and our property markets don’t operate in isolation, so I believe it’s good to regularly have a look at the big picture, the macroeconomic factors affecting not just Australia’s economy, but the world economy to help us understand what’s ahead for us, and I do this once a month in these Big Picture Podcasts with Pete Wargent.
And today after my chat with Pete, I’ll share my mindset message with you.
The Big Picture in September
We’re in unfamiliar territory.
A lot remains unknown about what life will look like on the other side of our lockdowns.
This time around it looks like we’re not exiting into a COVID-zero world so we don’t know what that really means; how households will spend their money, how many businesses will close, what mobility will look like.
Basically, we’re in uncharted waters.
Yet despite what is now 3 months of lockdown in Sydney and Melbourne in lockdown number 6 – in fact with more Australians in lockdown than are not – our real estate markets are still in good shape.
Of course, there are concerns that as restrictions drag on, they will weigh down on the housing market and household financial situations.
But so far there are very few signs of housing distress when compared to last year: loan deferrals are at a fraction of the first lockdown, property price discounting is minimal and there is a relatively low number of distressed sales.
In fact, property values increased in all our capital cities over the months of lockdown.
There seems to be a recognition that the lockdown doesn’t go on forever, and that once the vaccination rate gets past a critical number our economy will re-open.
There seems to be less fear around losing jobs and greater confidence that house prices can be resilient, and, on balance, our property markets are holding up much better than they did last year.
Some of the topics I discuss with Pete:
- What it’s like to live in a place that’s not in lockdown
- How Australia side-stepped a recession
- The shape of the recovery
- The effect of extended lockdowns on the economy
- How vaccination increases and restriction increases will boost the economy
- The Reserve Bank’s vision of an economic rebound
- The fall in job ads and the number of Australians working multiple jobs
- The current unemployment levels and what’s projected to happen to them
- The reduction of Australian credit card debt
- The increase in Australian savings
- The current activity in home loans
- The fact that property prices have been largely unaffected by the pandemic, lockdowns, and restrictions
Metropole’s Strategic Property Plan – to help both beginning and experienced investors
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Pete Wargent’s new book Low Rates High Returns
Some of our favourite quotes from the show:
“As we entered these lockdowns many households had a stronger financial balance sheet and the housing market was at an all-time high, so Australia’s wealth was high.” – Michael Yardney
“Just by the skin of the teeth, we dodged what could have been a double-dip recession.” – Michael Yardney
“You’ve won the lottery by being born at this time.” – Michael Yardney
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