Supply and Demand drives our property markets- here’s what’s happening to supply – September 2021

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At its core, real estate is about demand and supply.

Whilst housing prices are influenced by many variables – including interest rates; the availability of finance (liquidity); consumer confidence; employment; wages; economic growth; government policy etc. – what matters the most is simply the interplay between supply and demand.

When demand exceeds supply, then values often rise.

The degree of rise or fall often relates to the magnitude of the demand and supply imbalance

And currently there is an undersupply of good properties relative to demand.

Now realestate.com.au provides a monthly up-to-date view on property market supply trends through its REA Insights Listings Report which analyses new and active listings on its web portal.

Change In Total Listings

Summary of the findings for September 2021

Property commentator Cameron Kusher made the the following comments about the September 2021 REA Insights Listings Report.

The property market in Sydney showed signs of a rebound with an 11.9% month-on-month jump in new listings.

In contrast, locked-down sellers in Melbourne (-27.1% MoM) and Canberra (-35.1% MoM) pressed pause on their sale campaigns.

While the national property market slowed in August with a number of states in lockdown, confidence returned for Sydney sellers as a path to reopen was announced by the NSW government.

The number of national new listings for properties for sale fell by 2.3% month-on-month in August, with new listings the lowest they’ve been since January 2021.

Although national new listings are down, they remain 17.1% higher year-on-year.

Chart01

Kusher explained that with many sellers waiting in the wings for lockdowns to end, total listings fell in August by 3.8% over the month to reach a new historic low.

Older stock may continue to catch buyers’ attention until lockdowns end and there’s an uptick in new listings.

Chart02

Chart03

What’s ahead?

2 Tier Property MarketWith half Australian living in a Covid cocoon, with restricted property inspections and no inspections available in Victoria for much of the last month, it is understandable that listing numbers fell in the period surveyed by REA.

However one-on-one inspections are once again allowed in Victoria and with both Melbourne and Sydney now having a roadmap out of lockdown, it is likely vendor confidence will return.

It makes sense that vendors were reluctant to put their homes on the market over the last few months, because it was difficult for buyers to inspect their property, and as most sellers are buyers if it also be difficult for potential vendors to find a new home to move into.

Kusher explained:

Given the experience from Melbourne’s lockdown in 2020, and the ongoing level of high demand, we are confident that once lockdowns are over seller confidence will rapidly return and new listings are likely to rise quickly.

In other markets around Australia, it is likely new listings will pick-up in spring, and with high levels of demand for properties, we would expect quite strong selling conditions.

It seems unlikely demand and supply will return to equilibrium in the short-term, which is likely to lead to further increases in property prices.

Chart04

New South Wales

With regards to the Sydney housing market, Cameron Kusher made the following comments:

Despite a prolonged lockdown, green shoots showed in Sydney as new listings jumped 11.9% month-on-month in August.

  • While new listings lifted in Sydney, the expansion to a state-wide lockdown saw new listings in regional NSW fall 9.3% in August compared to July. 
  • Buyers with their eyes on the Eastern Suburbs (+46.8%) and North Sydney and Hornsby (+36.9%) enjoyed new supply, while those in the Central Coast (-9.8%) and Blacktown (-7.3%) faced a slump month-on-month.
  • While seller confidence is returning, demand continues to outstrip supply with total listings in Sydney in August the lowest they have been since January. Total listings in regional NSW also declined month-on-month to reach a new historic low. 
  • In August, Parramatta (11.1%) and the Inner South West (9.6%) had the highest share of total properties for sale, while the Northern Beaches (3.3%) and Sutherland (3.5%) had the lowest.  

Sydney

Suburb Spotlight: Change in new listings — Sydney

Chart06

Victoria

With regards to the Melbourne housing market, Cameron Kusher made the following comments:

Without one-to-one inspections during lockdown, Melbourne sellers were apprehensive leading to a 27.1% monthly decline in new listings. 

  • New listings rose 11% in August regional Victoria. 
  • The largest falls in new listings were in Melbourne’s Inner (-34.3%) and South East (-29.4%) suburbs, while the smallest falls were in the Mornington Peninsula (-18.8%) and the North West (-20.4%) compared to July.
  • With high demand for coastal properties, Mornington Peninsula had the smallest volume of stock available for sale, accounting for just 4.9% of all Melbourne listings. Comparatively, suburbs in the West (19.8%) had much more stock available for sale. 
  • Total listings in Melbourne dropped 10.9% in August, although, remain 4.2% higher year-on-year. In regional Victoria, total listings fell by 2.5% to reach a new historic low. 

Melboourne

Suburb Spotlight: Change in new listings — Melbourne

Chart08

Queensland

With regards to the Brisbane housing market, Cameron Kusher made the following comments:

Seasonal slow down in August led to a 4.9% fall in new listings in Brisbane and a 0.8% fall in regional Queensland over the month.

  • Moreton Bay-South was the only region to have new listings increase in August (3.5%). Brisbane-West (-18%). Brisbane-West (-18%) and Brisbane-North (-8.2%) recorded the largest falls in new listings month-on-month.
  • The Queensland market showed signs of slowing down, with total listings in Brisbane recording a monthly fall of 2% in August and a 1.8% fall in regional Queensland, both reaching new historic lows. 
  • In August, Logan-Beaudesert (16.4%) and Ipswich (16.3%) had the highest share of properties for sale, while Brisbane-West (4.7%) and Moreton Bay-South (6.1%) had the lowest.

Brisbane

Suburb Spotlight: Change in new listings — Brisbane

Chart09

South Australia

With regards to the Adelaide housing market, Cameron Kusher made the following comments:

After a lockdown in July, freedom was sweet for sellers in Adelaide in August with a 37.3% monthly increase in new listings in Adelaide and a 35.9% rise in regional SA. 

  • Buyers in the West (46.1%) and South (45.3%) had more choice in August with the largest increases in new listings month-on-month. The North (28.4%) saw the smallest, albeit still large, monthly rise in new listings.  
  • Encouraging market conditions have sellers feeling confident as the number of total properties listed for sale in Adelaide increased by 2.2% month-on-month in August. In regional SA, total listings fell to a new historic low following a 0.3% monthly decline. 
  • North Adelaide had the most properties available for sale in Adelaide, accounting for 37% of the city’s total supply, followed by Central and Hills (26.5%) and South (20.4%). 

Suburb Spotlight: Change in new listings — Adelaide

Chart10

Western Australia

With regards to the Perth housing market, Cameron Kusher made the following comments:

There were positive signs for buyers in Perth after 7.2% monthly increase in new listings in the city  in August, the largest rise since March 2021.  

  • There was a 4.8% monthly fall in new listings in regional WA.
  • Mandurah (18.9%) and the South West (10.4%) recorded the largest increases in new listings month-on-month in August, while the North West (1.8%) and Inner (3.5%)suburbs recorded the smallest increase.
  • Total property listings in Perth increased by 1.4% month-on-month in August but were still 7.4% lower year-on-year. In regional WA, a 3.6% monthly fall took total listings 28% lower year-on-year to a new historic low.
  • South East (24.5%) and South West (23.1%) had the highest share of total properties available for sale in August, while Mandurah (8.7%) and Inner (9.5%)suburbs had the lowest.

Suburb Spotlight: Change in new listings — Perth

Chart11

Tasmania

With regards to the Hobart housing market, Cameron Kusher made the following comments:

Buyers in Hobart enjoyed more choice in August with a 22.4% monthly increase in new listings, reaching their highest volumes since March this year. 

  • While new listings surged in Hobart, new listings in regional Tasmania fell by 5.3% month-on-month in August.
  • Total listings in Hobart rose by 8.4% month-on-month in August, while total listings in regional Tasmania fell by 0.4% over the month to reach a new historic low.

Suburb Spotlight: Change in new listings — Hobart

Chart12

Northern Territory

With regards to the Darwin housing market, Cameron Kusher made the following comments:

The snap lockdown in Darwin had sellers pressing pause with the number of newly listed properties for sale in Darwin falling by 1.5% in August.

  • Regional NT also reacted to the lockdown with a significant 33.3% drop in new listings during the month, taking them to their lowest volume this year. 
  • Despite the drops in new listings, total listings across Darwin increased by 2.4% month-on-month in August, while in regional NT the overall supply of properties for sale hit a new historic low after falling by 6.9%. 

Suburb Spotlight: Change in new listings — Darwin

Chart13

Australian Capital Territory

With regards to the Canberra housing market, Cameron Kusher made the following comments:

Faced with a prolonged lockdown, sellers in Canberra held back in August as new listings fell 35.1% in August. 

  • New listings in Canberra saw the largest monthly fall and the fewest new listings since December 2020.  
  • Buyers were feeling the crunch with total listings across the city dropping by 16.3% over the month, reaching their lowest level on record. 

Suburb Spotlight: Change in new listings — Canberra

Chart15

Read the complete REA Insights Listings Report – September 2021 and see the interactive charts here.

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Michael is a director of Metropole Property Strategists who help their clients grow, protect and pass on their wealth through independent, unbiased property advice and advocacy. He's once again been voted Australia's leading property investment adviser and one of Australia's 50 most influential Thought Leaders. His opinions are regularly featured in the media. Visit Metropole.com.au


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