As COVID-19 makes its way around the globe, it is also bulldozing its way though our economy, slowly infecting various industries.
And we know the unemployment rate he’s going to rise.
According to Roy Morgan Research, an extra 1.4 million Australians areout of work in wake of COVID-19 pandemic – 3.92 million (27.4% of workforce) now unemployed or under-employed.
Now Roy Morgan’s unemployment and under employment figures have always been considerably higher than those reported by the Australian Bureau of Statistics,
The good news is that there are early signs that the social distancing and self-isolation rules to stop the spread of the infectious virus.new restrictions are good from a public health perspective as the rate of new cases has substantially reduced since restrictions began to be introduced in mid-March.
However, the restrictions have also had a huge impact on the employment situation of many Australians – particularly in customer focused industries such as hospitality and retail businesses that have largely shut-down.
- Unemployment for March as a whole was 1.72 million (12.2%) and under-employment was 1.33 million (9.4%) but this obscures the huge change to the Australian economy that took place in mid-March;
- In the first half of March unemployment was 1.02 million (7.3%) with under-employment of 1.14 million (8.2%). A total of 2.16 million (15.6%), an improvement on February as Australia emerged from a summer of devastating bushfires;
- However in late March these numbers climbed dramatically as many businesses were forced to shut-down under the new restrictions;
- Unemployment for the second half of March jumped a staggering 1.4 million to 2.4 million (16.8%) and under-employment increased 374,000 to 1.52 million (10.6%);
- In total a record high 3.92 million (27.4%) of Australians were either unemployed or under-employed and looking for more work in the second half of March;
- This is far more Australians looking for work than was the case during the last recession in 1990/91.
Michele Levine, CEO Roy Morgan, says the COVID-19 Coronavirus pandemic is the biggest shock to the Australian economy, and workforce, since World War II – well beyond living memory for the vast majority of Australians:
“The Australian employment market appeared well on the road to recovery in early March as the summer of bushfires receded and Australians got ready to rebuild communities devastated across many Australian States.
“However, what started as a hit to the education and travel industries when flights from China were banned on February 1, quickly emerged as a serious threat to Australia’s economy in early March. The rapid responses of Governments around Australia to enforce tough new guidelines on social distancing and self-isolating has significantly reduced the spread of the virus through the community but at the same time delivered a hammer blow to the employment fortunes of many Australians.
“A record 3.92 million Australians are now looking for work or looking for more work – over a quarter of Australia’s 14.3 million strong workforce. Unemployment more than doubled in a matter of days, up by a staggering 1.4 million to 2.4 million in the second half of March compared to the first.
“The Federal Government’s announcement of the $130 billion ‘JobKeeper’ wage subsidy scheme offering to provide many of the hardest hit businesses with a flat $1,500 fortnightly payment to pay their employees over the next six months has provided increased certainty for many Australians.
“The ‘JobKeeper’ plan was announced on Monday March 30 and the first ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating taken since the announcement showed a record bounce in the index which closely tracks consumer sentiment of 10.1% (up 6.6pts) to 71.9 – up from a record low of 65.3.
“The results from today’s Roy Morgan March employment and unemployment estimates show the value of timely data closely tracking the employment statuses of Australian workers. In this uncertain time with many Australians unsure when they will be able to resume their previous employment, it is vital for Governments and policy-makers dealing with the fallout to have the most up-to-date data on the state of the labour market to make the right decisions.”
Latest data for the Roy Morgan employment series for late March shows nearly 2.4 million Australians were unemployed (16.7% of the workforce), with an additional 1.47 million (10.3% of the workforce) now under-employed.
- The workforce in late March was a record high 14,302,000 – comprised of 11,895,000 employed and 2,407,000 unemployed Australians looking for work. The workforce total has increased 411,000 since early March as unemployment has swelled;
- The number of Australians in employment in late March plummeted 977,000 from early March to 11,895,000. Full-time employment was down 745,000 to 7,737,000 and part-time employed dropped 232,000 to 4,158,000;
- Australians looking for work more than doubled in the second half of March for both full-time and part-time work. The number looking for full-time work increased by 558,000 to 960,000 and the number looking for part-time work was up by 830,000 to 1,447,000;
- Roy Morgan’s unemployment figure of 16.8% for late March is now over three times higher than the current (pre-pandemic) ABS estimate for February 2020 of 5.1%. The ABS figure for March is set to be released next Thursday April 16, 2020 and as part of their monthly estimates they must provide data relevant to both early March (pre shut-downs) and late March (post shut-downs).
Roy Morgan Unemployed and ‘Under-employed’* Estimates
|Unemployed||Unemployed looking for||‘Under-employed’*|
|March 2020 (Total)||3,046||21.6||1,715||12.2||684||1,030||1,331||9.4|
|March 2020 (Early)||2,161||15.6||1,019||7.3||402||617||1,142||8.2|
|March 2020 (Late)||3,923||27.4||2,407||16.8||960||1,447||1,516||10.6|
*Workforce includes those employed and those looking for work – the unemployed.
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