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House price growth slows down in November – RPData Update – Tim Lawless

Dwelling values across Australia’s capital cities increased by 0.1 per cent in November which was much lower than the increases of 1.6 per cent for September and 1.3 per cent for October.

Today’s release of the RP Data-Rismark International Home Value Index results for November showed moderate value growth across the combined capital cities over the month where home values rose by just 0.1 per cent.

Although home value growth slowed over November, the combined capital city home values are 8.0 per cent higher over the last 12 months, and 8.3 per cent higher for 2013 so far.

The combined capital city index has now recorded its fastest rate of annual growth since October 2010.

RP Data’s Senior Research Analyst Cameron Kusher noted that the slowing rate of capital city home value growth indicates a potential moderation in overall growth.

The Sydney and Melbourne property markets recorded have recorded relatively strong levels of annual value growth and are up 12.5 per cent and 6.6 per cent respectively over the last 12 months. However, over the past couple of months, the monthly rate of growth in both cities has begun to slow.

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Mr Kusher commented that while further growth is likely for this cycle, it may be the case that the peak rate of value growth in both cities has now passed.

Over the three months to November 2013, home values increased across each capital city except for Hobart (-4.7%) and Canberra (-3.5%).

Mr Kusher said that rising home values are becoming more broad-based rather than just being focussed across a handful of capital city markets.

Values increased by 5.8 per cent in Sydney, 1.5 per cent in Melbourne, 1.1 per cent in Brisbane, 2.6 per cent in Adelaide, 2.5 per cent in Perth and 1.8 per cent in Darwin.

Although we are seeing home values generally trending higher across the capital cities, Sydney and Perth are still the only individual capital city markets in which home values are now higher than they were at their previous peak. The increase in home values seems to be slowing to a level reflective of more sustainability when compared to the growth in other indicators.

“The latest data from the Reserve Bank shows private sector housing credit increased by 5.0 per cent over the 12 months to October 2013, its highest annual rate of growth since June 2012. The data also indicates that housing credit for investment housing (6.4% pa) is expanding at a much faster pace than owner occupier finance (4.3% pa),”

A typical capital city home is currently taking 41 days to sell compared to 50 days a year ago and homes are being discounted by 5.8 per cent currently compared to 6.6 per cent a year ago.

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About

Tim heads up the Core Logic RP Data research and analytics team, analysing real estate markets, demographics and economic trends across Australia. Visit www.corelogic.com.au


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