Almost 80% of Australia’s house and unit markets now in decline

Australia’s housing market downturn has become more widespread, with four in five house and unit markets analysed across the capital cities recording a fall in values over the past three months, almost double the number that declined in the previous quarter.

CoreLogic’s interactive Mapping the Market tool shows 79.5% or 2,405 house and unit markets analysed saw values go backwards over the September quarter, a significant increase on Quarter 2 when 1,293 markets recorded a decline.

This saw values in 38.3% of house and unit markets fall below the levels recorded this time last year.

Using the CoreLogic Home Value Index, 3,027 capital city house and unit markets were analysed to provide an overview of quarterly and annual changes to median values.

What does this mean?

The updated data confirmed the extent of the housing market downswing and demonstrates how much it has accelerated over recent months following six successive hikes in the cash rate.

This analysis shows the effect of the three 50 basis point rate hikes through the September quarter, plus the lagged impact of the first two hikes (totalling 75 basis points) in May and June, so it’s not surprising to see significantly more markets recording a decline in value.

The CoreLogic Home Value Index showed dwelling values across the combined capitals declined - 4.3% over the September quarter, down from a -0.8% decrease recorded over the three months to June.

Capital cities

Across the capital’s house markets, Sydney, Melbourne, Canberra and Hobart each saw 100% of analysed suburbs experience a decline in values over Quarter 3, with Hobart the only city also recording a quarterly decline in all unit markets analysed.

Darwin, Perth and Adelaide had the lowest portions of house and unit markets experiencing quarterly declines, which is a reflection of those cities reaching their peak a little later in the cycle than the larger capitals.

Unsurprisingly, Sydney and Melbourne also have the highest share of house and unit markets recording an annual decline in values.

Growth conditions across Sydney weakened significantly over the period, with house values falling -9.7% since April, and -7.0% over the past quarter, taking values -6.4% lower than this time last year.

All 563 suburbs analysed saw house values fall over Quarter 3, however, the pace of decline varies significantly from suburb to suburb.

The rate of quarterly decline ranged from a -13.0% fall in Asquith to a -0.8% drop in Silverdale.

The recent declines saw the median house value across 34 suburbs fall below $1m over the past quarter.

Additionally, house values in 72.6% of suburbs are now below the levels recorded this time last year.

Continuing the trend seen across Sydney’s house market, quarterly value declines became more widespread across Sydney’s unit market, with only 13 of the 304 markets analysed recording a rise in unit values over the quarter.

About Kaitlin Ezzy Kaytlin is a skilled research analyst and key member within CoreLogic’s research team. She specialises in collating large and customised data sets, data visualisation and residential data reports. www.Corelogic.com.au