By Michael Yardney November 18, 2024

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This week’s Australian Property Market Update – Latest Data, State by State November 19th 2024

Property Market News
This week’s Australian Property Market Update – Latest Data, State by State November 19th 2024

Key takeaways

Our property markets are continuing to rise in value, but more slowly than earlier in the year.

CoreLogic estimates the combined value of residential real estate rose to $11 trillion at the end of September. I remember when it hit $9 trillion before the pandemic and everyone was excited.

This week, CoreLogic Research reports that:

* Sydney property prices remained flat over the last week, fell -0.1% over the last month and are 3.4% higher than they were 12 months ago.

* Melbourne property prices fell -0.1% over the last week, they also fell -0.2% over the last month, and are now -2.3% lower compared to 12 months ago.

* Brisbane property prices increased by 0.1% over the last week, increased 0.7% over the last month and are 12.7% higher than they were 12 months ago.

Overall, Australian capital dwelling prices increased by 0.2% over the last month and are now 5.9% higher than they were 12 months ago.

2,882 homes were taken to auction across the combined capitals last week, the third-busiest auction week of the year-to-date behind the week before Easter (3,519) and the week ending 27th October (3,135).

The combined capitals preliminary clearance rate slipped a little, coming in at 64.1%

This current property cycle has been driven by an undersupply of good properties relative to current demand pushing up property values and rents there was nothing to suggest there will be any significant change in the near future.

Unfortunately, the undersupply properties is going to persist for some time with all commentators agreeing that there is no way we're going to hit the housing construction targets required to meet our demand.

Australia's housing shortage has reached critical levels with a deficit of over 200,000, and the gap between supply and demand in the housing market is only widening.

A recent analysis by independent economist Tarric Brooker sheds light on just how severe the problem has become.

On X (formerly Twitter), Brooker provides a realistic picture of Australia's housing deficit and estimates Australia is now facing a deficit of 232,000 homes.

Brooker’s findings align with other economists’ estimates of our housing shortage.

In other words, we need to build more than 200,000 new dwellings to bring the supply and demand ratio to a near-equilibrium state, even before providing accommodation for the more than 300,000 new people that we’re adding to our population each year.

On the auction front... 2,882 homes were taken to auction across the combined capitals last week, the third-busiest auction week of the year to date behind the week before Easter (3,519) and the week ending 27th October (3,135).

The combined capitals preliminary clearance rate slipped a little, coming in at 64.1%

According to CoreLogic, just shy of 2,900 auctions held across the combined capital cities.

See Corelogic's full auction report below.

This week, CoreLogic also reports that:

Sydney property prices remained flat over the last week, fell -0.1% over the last month and are 3.4% higher than they were 12 months ago.
Melbourne property prices fell -0.1% over the last week, also fell -0.2% over the last month, and are -2.3% lower compared to 12 months ago.

Brisbane property prices increased by 0.1% over the last week, increased 0.7% over the last month and are 12.7% higher than they were 12 months ago.

Overall, Australian capital dwelling prices increased by 0.2% over the last month and are now 5.9% higher than they were 12 months ago.

Clearly, the property cycle is moving on but our markets are very fragmented.

Source: CoreLogic November 18th 2024

Of course, these are "overall" figures - there is not one Sydney or Melbourne or Brisbane property market.

And various segments of each market are performing differently.

At the beginning of this cycle the upper quartile of the market lead the upswing but now the lower quartile across every capital city has recorded a stronger outcome for housing values relative to its upper quartile counterpart over the past quarter.

The following chart shows how various segments of each capital city market are performing differently with median-priced properties performing well.

To help keep you up-to-date with all that's happening in property, here is my updated weekly analysis of data and charts as of 18th November 2024 provided by SQM Research, CoreLogic, and realestate.com.au.

Current property asking prices

Property asking prices are a useful leading indicator for housing markets - giving a good indication of what's ahead.

Here is the latest data available:

Sydney

Property type	Price ($)	Weekly Change	Monthly Change %	Annual % change
All Houses	1,957,017	7.218	1.1%	5.1%
All Units	831,917	-6.517	-1.2%	7.7%
Combined	1,501,059	1.652	0.5%	5.4%

Source: SQM Research

Melbourne

Property type	Price ($)	Weekly Change	Monthly Change %	Annual % change
All Houses	1,249,117	-0.747	0.0%	3.6%
All Units	611,736	-0.536	0.0%	3.6%
Combined	1,048,804	-0.681	0.0%	3.2%

Source: SQM Research

Brisbane

Property type	Price ($)	Weekly Change	Monthly Change %	Annual % change
All Houses	1,182,371	0.082	0.3%	16.2%
All Units	671,313	2.887	1.1%	23.7%
Combined	1,054,572	0.783	0.4%	17.2%

Source: SQM Research

Perth

Property type	Price ($)	Weekly Change	Monthly Change %	Annual % change
All Houses	1,091,271	8.418	2.4%	25.5%
All Units	584,463	3.932	2.3%	28.1%
Combined	958,909	7.247	2.4%	25.7%

Source: SQM Research

Adelaide

Property type	Price ($)	Weekly Change	Monthly Change %	Annual % change
All Houses	942,907	-3.455	-1.4%	15.5%
All Units	479,328	6.072	3.3%	9.4%
Combined	859,641	-1.744	-1.0%	14.9%

Source: SQM Research

Canberra

Property type	Price ($)	Weekly Change	Monthly Change %	Annual % change
All Houses	1,185,244	6.881	1.1%	2.3%
All Units	603,050	0.687	0.9%	0.9%
Combined	971,185	4.604	1.0%	1.5%

Source: SQM Research

Darwin

Property type	Price ($)	Weekly Change	Monthly Change %	Annual % change
All Houses	690,536	-1.536	2.0%	0.3%
All Units	381,569	-1.569	-1.0%	1.3%
Combined	569,273	-1.549	1.2%	0.5%

Source: SQM Research

Hobart

Property type	Price ($)	Weekly Change	Monthly Change %	Annual % change
All Houses	804,549	-0.549	0.1%	1.6%
All Units	490,520	9.025	2.0%	-8.1%
Combined	757,001	0.901	0.3%	0.5%

Source: SQM Research

National

Property type	Price ($)	Weekly Change	Monthly Change %	Annual % change
All Houses	949,076	-3.547	-0.3%	8.5%
All Units	562,197	-0.497	-0.2%	8.5%
Combined	865,844	-2.891	-0.3%	8.4%

Source: SQM Research

Cap City Average

Property type	Price ($)	Weekly Change	Monthly Change %	Annual % change
All Houses	1,414,428	1.860	0.6%	8.5%
All Units	702,995	-3.114	-0.8%	9.0%
Combined	1,203,863	0.388	0.3%	8.3%

Source: SQM Research

The value of property asking prices as a leading indicator for housing markets is quite significant.

In fact it's more valuable than median prices which can be quite misleading.

Let's delve into why this is the case and how it impacts the real estate market.

Early Market Sentiment Indicator: Asking prices often reflect the current sentiment of sellers in the real estate market.

If sellers are confident, they might set higher asking prices, anticipating strong demand.
Conversely, if sellers are uncertain or perceive a market downturn, they might lower their asking prices to attract buyers.
This makes asking prices a real-time indicator of market sentiment, often preceding changes in actual sales prices.
Predictive of Future Price Trends: Trends in asking prices can be predictive of where the actual property prices are headed.
For example, a consistent rise in asking prices over a period can signal an upcoming rise in transaction prices.
Impact of Economic Factors: Economic factors such as interest rates, employment rates, and broader economic health influence asking prices.
For instance, changes in the Reserve Bank of Australia's policies or shifts in the job market can quickly reflect in the asking prices, providing insights into how these factors are influencing the housing market.
Regional Variations: In a diverse market like Australia's, asking prices can also provide insights into regional disparities.
For instance, the property markets in Melbourne and Sydney might behave differently from those in Brisbane or Perth. Asking prices can give early indications of these regional trends.
Influence of Supply and Demand: Asking prices are also a response to the balance of supply and demand in the market.
In areas with limited supply and high demand, asking prices tend to be higher and vice versa.

However, it's important to note that while asking prices are a valuable indicator, they should not be used in isolation.

Other factors like actual sales prices, time on the market, auction clearance rates, and economic conditions also play crucial roles in understanding the property market dynamics.

Last weekend's auction report

Just shy of 2,900 auctions held across the combined capital cities

There were 2,882 homes taken to auction across the combined capitals last week, the third busiest auction week of the year-to-date behind the week before Easter (3,519) and the week ending 27th October (3,135).

The combined capitals preliminary clearance rate slipped a little, coming in at 64.1% compared to 65.8% the week prior (revised down to 58.4% on final numbers). This was the third-lowest preliminary clearance rate of the year-to-date.

1,317 auctions were held in Melbourne last week, down slightly from the week prior (1,330) and the fourth busiest week for auctions since the start of the spring selling season.

So far, 64.9% of auctions have been reported as successful, down from a preliminary clearance rate of 66.5% over the previous week, which was finalised lower at 59.0%.

1,108 homes went under the hammer in Sydney last week, marking the second busiest week for auctions since the start of the spring selling season and only the third time this year that more than 1,100 auctions were held over the week.

63.4% of auctions have been reported as successful based on the early collection, the second lowest preliminary clearance rate so far this year (after the first week of October at 62.7%).

Across the smaller capitals, Brisbane held the most auctions, with 192 homes going under the hammer and 56.3% of results collected so far reporting as sold.

Adelaide hosted 164 auctions, the city’s fifth-busiest week for auctions so far this spring, with 70.7% reporting a successful result so far.

81 auctions were held in the ACT, returning a 66.0% preliminary clearance rate.

Around 2,600 auctions are going to market this week, stepping up to approximately 2,700 the week after.

Our rental markets

National rents rose by 0.2% in October, a subtle bounce back from the weaker growth over the previous three months, but less than a third of the 0.7% monthly rise recorded in October of the past three years.

Annual rental growth has dropped to 5.8%, the smallest annual rise in the national rental index since the 12 months ending April 2021.

With rents a significant component in the CPI calculation, the slowdown in rental growth is a positive signal for inflation, as CPI-rent data has dropped to 6.7% in Q3 2024 from a high of 7.8% in Q1.

The easing in rental demand correlates with a slowdown in net overseas migration and an increase in average household sizes as the effects of the pandemic ‘shrink’ trend wear off.