Key takeaways
Australia is often seen as a land of opportunity, but if we suddenly closed our doors to newcomers, it would threaten the very fabric of our society and our economic stability.
We've relied heavily on immigration to fuel our population growth and economic prosperity, but our birth rate has dropped to its lowest level ever, at just 1.6 babies per woman. Without immigration, Australia's population would age rapidly, placing enormous pressure on our already stretched healthcare and social security systems, and resulting in a slowdown in economic growth.
Australia's debt levels are already high, and improving productivity is always desirable, but it's often a slow and uncertain process. Increasing immigration provides an immediate boost to the economy, and creates demand for goods and services across multiple sectors, including education, which would be hard hit.
The regional impact of halting immigration would be felt most acutely in Australia's capital cities, but small towns in regional Australia would not be spared. As the population dwindles, essential services like healthcare and education would become unviable, leading to closures.
The housing crisis is not caused by immigration, but by poor urban planning, a lack of infrastructure investment, and a failure to build enough homes to meet demand. Stopping immigration won't solve these problems, and could make them worse by slowing economic growth.
Australia’s long-term plan to grow its population to 40 million by the middle of this century will require continued immigration. Instead of closing our doors, we should focus on smarter policies that ensure we can accommodate growth sustainably.
Australia is often seen as a land of opportunity, a place where hard work and determination can pave the way for a better life.
But what if we suddenly closed our doors to newcomers?
As we face a housing crisis, an aging population, and growing political pressure, some have begun to question whether Australia should reduce, or even stop, immigration altogether.
The answer to this question, however, reveals a troubling future—one that could threaten the very fabric of our society and our economic stability.
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The lifeblood of Australia's population growth
Australia has always been a “migration nation.”
From the post-war influx of European migrants to the waves of Asian immigration in recent decades, we've relied heavily on newcomers to fuel our population growth and economic prosperity.
Today, about two-thirds of our population growth comes from overseas migration, with the remaining third due to natural increase—more babies being born than people dying.
However, even this natural increase is on shaky ground, as our birth rate has dropped to its lowest level ever, at just 1.6 babies per woman.
Without immigration, Australia’s population would age rapidly.
Migrants to Australia are predominantly young, falling within the 18 to 39 age bracket.
They bring with them energy, skills, and a readiness to contribute to the workforce.
Without them, the ratio of working-age Australians to retirees would plummet, placing enormous pressure on our already stretched healthcare and social security systems.
The consequences would be stark: a shrinking labour force, declining productivity, and a slowdown in economic growth.
Economic ramifications: more than just numbers
When we think about growing an economy, there are three primary methods:
- taking on more debt,
- improving productivity, or
- expanding the market size.
Australia’s debt levels are already high, and while improving productivity is always desirable, it’s often a slow and uncertain process.
Expanding the market size through immigration, however, provides an immediate boost.
New migrants don’t just fill jobs—they also create demand for goods and services.
They need homes, and schools for their children, and they spend money on everything from groceries to entertainment, driving economic growth across multiple sectors.
One sector that would be particularly hard hit by a reduction in immigration is education.
International education is one of Australia’s largest export industries, bringing in billions of dollars each year.
International students pay high fees, support jobs, and contribute to the cultural richness of not only our universities but our cities in general.
If we were to significantly reduce or stop the flow of international students, the impact on our universities and the broader economy would be severe.
We could see cuts to research funding, higher fees for domestic students, and a decline in the global reputation of our education system.
The regional impact: a bleak outlook for small towns
While the effects of halting immigration would be felt most acutely in Australia’s capital cities, regional areas would not be spared.
Regional Australia is already grappling with an aging population and a lack of services.
Migrants are often essential to the survival of these small towns, providing much-needed labour and helping to maintain population levels.
In some cases, they are the lifeblood of these communities, filling jobs in industries like agriculture, aged care, and hospitality that are crucial to the local economy.
If immigration were to stop, many of these regional towns could face a grim future.
As the population dwindles, essential services like healthcare and education would become unviable, leading to closures.
Once a town loses its doctor, its school, or its supermarket, the decline becomes self-perpetuating.
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Families move away, businesses close, and the town begins to fade away.
Even towns within commuting distance of major cities could struggle, as they rely on a steady influx of new residents to sustain growth and development.
Australia is one of the most successful multicultural societies in the world.
Nearly 40% of the population in cities like Sydney and Melbourne was born overseas.
This diversity has enriched our culture, cuisine, and way of life, making Australia a vibrant and dynamic place to live.
However, maintaining social cohesion in such a diverse society requires effort and intentional policies to ensure that new migrants are integrated into the community.
If we were to stop immigration, we would not only slow our cultural evolution but also risk undermining the very fabric of our society.
The benefits of immigration extend far beyond the economy—they include fostering innovation, bringing in new perspectives, and enriching our social and cultural life.
Immigrants have played a key role in shaping Australia’s identity, from the foods we eat to the sports we play.
They have brought with them new ideas, new businesses, and new ways of thinking that have helped Australia to thrive in an increasingly globalized world.
The housing crisis: a misguided blame
One of the most common arguments against immigration is that it exacerbates the housing crisis.
With more people coming into the country, the demand for housing increases, pushing up prices and making it harder for Australians to afford a home.
On the surface, this argument seems plausible.
But the reality is far more complex.
The housing shortage in Australia is the result of multiple factors, including poor urban planning, a lack of infrastructure investment, and a failure to build enough homes to meet demand.
Stopping immigration won’t solve these problems.
In fact, it could make them worse by slowing economic growth, reducing the resources available to invest in housing, and undermining the very industries that drive the demand for new homes.
Moreover, we’ve already seen what happens when migration slows.
During the pandemic, when Australia’s borders were effectively closed, we witnessed one of the sharpest rises in house prices on record.
This was driven not by immigration, but by low interest rates, government incentives, and a surge in demand for larger homes as people adjusted to life under lockdown.
The lesson here is clear: immigration is not the root cause of the housing crisis, and stopping it will not be the solution.
The bigger picture: a future built on inclusion
Australia has a long-term plan to grow its population to 40 million by the middle of this century.
Achieving this goal will require continued immigration.
While there are challenges to be managed—such as ensuring we have the infrastructure, services, and housing to accommodate this growth—the benefits of immigration far outweigh the potential downsides.
Instead of closing our doors, we should focus on smarter policies that ensure we can accommodate growth sustainably.
This includes investing in infrastructure, planning for future housing needs, and ensuring that new migrants are integrated into our communities in a way that promotes social cohesion and economic prosperity.
In conclusion, while it may be tempting to consider extreme solutions to our current challenges, such as halting immigration, the reality is that this would create far more problems than it solves.
Australia’s future prosperity depends on continuing to welcome newcomers, integrating them into our society, and harnessing their contributions to build a stronger, more vibrant nation.
As we look to the future, we must remember that the answer to our challenges lies not in turning inward, but in embracing the opportunities that come from being an open, diverse, and inclusive nation.
For weekly insights and strategic advice, subscribe to the Demographics Decoded podcast, where we will continue to explore these trends and their implications in greater detail.
Subscribe now on your favourite Podcast player:
