What is going to happen to overseas migration post Coronavirus?

What is going to happen to overseas migration post Coronavirus?

Overseas migrationChart 1 tells me that net overseas migration has lifted substantially when compared to a generation ago.

But in recent times it has slowed down.

Like interstate migration, net overseas migration is also a cyclical occurrence.

Population Growth

Table 1 tells me the New South Wales and Victoria – read Sydney and Melbourne – receive the lion’s share of net overseas migration to Australia.

Population Growth 2
Table 2 outlines the top 25 local authority areas across Australia ranked by total net overseas migration during fiscal 2019.

Most of these areas are in either Sydney or Melbourne and most occupy inner-city or middle-ring locations.

In many instances, net overseas migration is the only reason these areas are experiencing an increasing headcount.

My comments

There has been considerable debate in recent weeks if overseas migration will fall as a result of the coronavirus.

I think that in the short term – over the next 12 to 24 months – that is very likely, if for no other reasons than limitations on international travel and overseas student intakes.

But once these things become unrestrained – and they will – it is reasonable to accept that the recent high levels of overseas migration will resume.

In fact, I will go further and say that the net levels of overseas migration to Australia are very likely to rise, and maybe substantially, over the decades to come.

Why?

Some statistics first.

The median age of a recent overseas migrant to Australia is 26 years old, whilst that number for an Australian citizen is just under 40.

More telling is that 61% of overseas arrivals to Australia are currently aged between 18 and 34 years, whilst this segment holds just 27% of the overall Australian population.

In short, Australia will need their tax dollars – and most likely lower wage costs too – in order to pay for, and recover from, our current largesse.

What about Interstate movements

Here’s one chart and two tables to explain this.

Chart 1 tells me that population movements between states and territories was on a rapid ascent before COVID-19.  The Coronavirus Sinks The Global Stock Exchanges.

The chart also shows that interstate population movements are cyclical.

Moves are influenced by the economy, demographics and also perception.

Also, the chart shows that when things get hard, economically, interstate movements slow down as we assumingly bunker down until things monetary wise improve.

Chart 1 also shows that the bounce back is often as steep the previous decline.

Table 1. Australia: Population growth by state/territory

State/Territory Total population Annual population growth
Total population growth Net interstate migration
New South Wales 8,089,817 109,649 -22,063
Victoria 6,596,039 134,020 12,198
Queensland 5,094,510 85,086 22,831
South Australia 1,751,963 15,436 -3,958
Western Australia 2,621,509 27,328 -6,451
Tasmania 534,457 6,159 2,008
Northern Territory 245,929 -1,129 -4,371
ACT 426,704 6,325 -194
Australia 25,365,571 382,883 0
Matusik + ABS.  Fiscal 2019.

Table 1 tells me that Queensland, Victoria and Tasmania currently attract more interstate arrivals than departures, whilst in the other states and territories more people leave than arrive.

Table 2: Top 25 Australian LGAs ranked by total internal population growth

Local Authority Area, State and Rank Annual population growth
Total growth Internal migration % total growth
1 Wyndham (C) Vic 15,120 6,392 42%
2 Sunshine Coast (R) Qld 8,591 6,047 70%
3 Casey (C) Vic 13,429 5,766 43%
4 Camden (A) NSW 7,408 5,573 75%
5 Gold Coast (C) Qld 13,990 5,329 38%
6 Ipswich (C) Qld 8,739 5,317 61%
7 Moreton Bay (R) Qld 10,009 5,186 52%
8 Melton (C) Vic 8,177 4,849 59%
9 Greater Geelong (C) Vic 6,705 3,796 57%
10 Cardinia (S) Vic 5,042 3,204 64%
11 Hume (C) Vic 9,048 3,129 35%
12 The Hills Shire (A) NSW 5,630 3,048 54%
13 Logan (C) Qld 7,864 2,549 32%
14 Swan (C) WA 4,020 1,808 45%
15 Armadale (C) WA 3,190 1,616 51%
16 Whittlesea (C) Vic 6,891 1,556 23%
17 Port Macquarie-Hastings (A) NSW 1,463 1,418 97%
18 Brisbane (C) Qld 23,044 1,354 6%
19 Wanneroo (C) WA 4,628 1,326 29%
20 Maitland (C) NSW 2,062 1,222 59%
21 Fraser Coast (R) Qld 1,264 1,198 95%
22 Mitchell (S) Vic 1,784 1,197 67%
23 Ballarat (C) Vic 2,181 1,187 54%
24 Serpentine-Jarrahdale (S) WA 1,635 1,126 69%
25 Shoalhaven (C) NSW 1,380 1,071 78%
Matusik + ABS.  Fiscal 2019.

Table 2 outlines the top 25 local authority areas across Australia ranked by total net internal population growth during fiscal 2019.

Many of these areas either hug the coastline and/or in the outer conurbations of our four largest cities.

Only a couple are inland regional towns.

My commentsPu Meet The Teammichael Matusik Bright

Once the current restrictions are lifted it is reasonable to accept that movements between states and territories will continue.

It is also rational to assume that – and if the household has the means – the want to live in a more desirable location has risen over recent weeks.

This might be more impulse or reaction rather than a sustainable trend, but such action could add further momentum to the recent escalation shown in chart 1.

It is also fair to accept that any continuance regarding interstate migration will follow the same established settlement patterns as shown in tables 1 and 2.

NOW READ:

Coronavirus crisis: I have no idea what will happen to property prices!

Brisbane property market – how will Coronavirus affect it?

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Michael is director of independent property advisory Matusik Property Insights. He is independent, perceptive and to the point; has helped over 550 new residential developments come to fruition and writes his insightful Matusik Missive


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