Key takeaways
NAB and Westpac now expect the RBA to lift rates in March and May, while CBA and ANZ still predict the next move will come in May.
A 0.25% rate rise would add about $91 a month to repayments on a $600,000 mortgage, with three hikes potentially lifting costs by around $272 monthly.
Borrowers are being urged to check if their budget can handle rates at least 0.5% higher and review whether their mortgage is still competitive.
Borrowers, you might need to braise yourselves.
NAB and Westpac have revised their cash rate forecasts, with both banks expecting the RBA to hike next Tuesday by 0.25, with another increase in May, according to Canstar's latest report.
The reports said that if this materialises, it would mean back-to-back hikes at three successive meetings, as the RBA is not scheduled to meet in April.
The other two majors, CBA and ANZ, still expect the RBA will hold until May, which is what NAB and Westpac were previously forecasting.
| Current big four bank cash rate forecasts | ||
| Bank | Forecast | Cash rate - end 2026 |
| CBA | 1 x 0.25 in May | 4.10% |
| Westpac | 2 x 0.25 in March, May | 4.35% |
| NAB | 2 x 0.25 in March, May | 4.35% |
| ANZ | 1 x 0.25 in May | 4.10% |
Impact of a 0.25 cash rate hike in March
According to Canstar, for someone with a $600,000 mortgage and 25 years remaining, a hike in March would increase a borrower’s monthly repayments by $91.
Across what would then be two hikes for the year in February and March, the total increase would be $181.
Canstar.com.au’s data insights director, Sally Tindall, says:
"Australia’s robust economy and jobs market, coupled with core inflation that is moving in the wrong direction, and likely to continue to do so, paint a strong case for a March hike.
- Also read:Latest Property Price Forecasts Revealed. Australian Property Market Outlook 2026: Where To Now After The Rate Rise.
- Also read:Something strange is happening in Australia’s housing market right now | Property Insiders
- Also read:National Weekly Auction Report – March 7th 2026 | Auction Clearance Rates Ease as Listings Fall Over Holiday Weekend
- Also read:Latest Property Asking Prices State by State | National Listings Rebound Strongly in February as New Supply Surges
- Also read:Booming Housing Markets Rise Over February | Latest stats from Dr. Andrew Wilson
“However, the split among the big four forecasts highlights just how uncertain the outlook currently is. The RBA is walking a tightrope between tackling persistent inflation and avoiding pushing too hard."
| Impact of a 0.25 hike in March on monthly repayments | ||
| Debt owning | Hike in March | Cumulative increase (Feb + March) |
| $600,000 | +$91 | +$181 |
| $800,000 | +$121 | +$241 |
| $1 million | +$151 | +$301 |
Canstar said if the RBA fires off a total of three hikes in 2026, as NAB and Westpac are now suggesting, the total increase to the monthly repayments on a $600,000 mortgage would be $272.
Ms Tindall further explained:
“A family with a $600,000 mortgage isn’t just looking at a few extra dollars each month. If the RBA ends up rolling out three successive hikes through to May, they’re looking at an extra $272 just as winter sets in.
If you haven't stress-tested your budget against a rate that’s at least a half a percentage point higher, tonight is the night to do it.
For example, if you’re now sitting on a rate of 5.75 per cent, test it out at 6.25 per cent – even 6.50 per cent – to see if it stacks up against your budget."
| Impact of a 3 x 0.25 hikes in 2026 on monthly repayments | |
| Debt owning | Total increase (Feb + March + May) |
| $600,000 | +$272 |
| $800,000 | +$363 |
| $1 million | +$453 |
Finally, Ms Tindall reminded that for borrowers, the key message is to prepare for the possibility of higher rates, even if it’s not yet a done deal. Now is the time to make sure your mortgage is competitive.
