Values rose across almost 90% of house and unit markets over the year

Over the past 12 months, CoreLogic’s Home Value Index has risen 8.9%, adding the equivalent of approximately $63,000 to the national median dwelling value ($765,762) and taking the index to a new all-time high in February.

A recent suburb-level analysis found that 88.4% (4,087) of the 4,625 house and unit markets analysed nationally saw values rise over the year.

This is up from just 52.9% of markets in July 2023 (2,456/4,640), and up from the 39.1% that recorded positive annual growth in February 2023 (1,851/4,732).

The broad-based capital gains seen over the past year reflect the ongoing imbalance between housing supply and demand, which has helped to counteract the less favourable market and affordability conditions.

Despite three rate hikes, worsening affordability, and the rising cost of living, the increasingly entrenched undersupply in housing stock, and above-average demand thanks to strong net migration, have helped push values higher.

Portion of suburbs recording an annual rise in values

				Houses					Units
Region		Suburbs analysed	Quarterly rise #	Quarterly rise%	Annual rise #	Annual rise %	Suburbs analysed	Quarterly rise #	Quarterly rise%	Annual rise #	Annual rise %
Sydney		559	401	71.7%	551	98.6%	308	204	66.2%	299	97.1%
Melbourne		381	130	34.1%	344	90.3%	243	93	38.3%	199	81.9%
Brisbane		312	293	93.9%	312	100.0%	167	166	99.4%	167	100%
Adelaide		286	284	99.3%	285	99.7%	74	69	93.2%	73	98.6%
Perth		294	293	99.7%	293	99.7%	105	105	100%	105	100%
Hobart		44	13	29.5%	22	50.0%	13	1	7.7%	3	23.1%
Darwin		35	29	82.9%	15	42.9%	15	12	80.0%	7	46.7%
Canberra		81	42	51.9%	63	77.8%	40	21	52.5%	14	35.0%
Regional NSW		469	334	71.2%	369	78.7%	112	80	71.4%	81	72.3%
Regional Vic.		192	77	40.1%	77	40.1%	41	28	68.3%	20	48.8%
Regional Qld		420	369	87.9%	415	98.8%	144	121	84.0%	135	93.8%
Regional SA		73	55	75.3%	69	94.5%	2	1	50.0%	2	100%
Regional WA		129	114	88.4%	121	93.8%	14	12	85.7%	11	78.6%
Regional Tas.		53	24	45.3%	25	47.2%	9	7	77.8%	7	77.8%
Regional NT		9	9	100%	3	33.3%	1	1	100%
Combined capitals		1,992	1485	74.5%	1,885	94.6%	965	671	69.5%	867	89.8%
Combined regionals		1,345	982	73.0%	1,079	80.2%	323	250	77.4%	256	79.3%
National		3,337	2467	73.9%	2,964	88.8%	1288	921	71.5%	1123	87.2%

 

Brisbane, Adelaide, and Perth saw the most widespread value uplift year-on-year across both houses and units.

All 312 house and 167 unit markets analysed in Brisbane have seen values rise over the year.

The inner-city suburb of East Perth (-0.8%) was the only market in the western capital to record a decline in house values, while only one house (Black Forest) and one unit market (Glenelg South) in Adelaide saw values fall over the year to February, down -0.4% and - 1.8% respectively.

Positive net migration flows, low housing supply and comparatively low housing prices have all helped support widespread growth across these markets.

Not only have the annual increases in these cities been fairly broad-based, but they’ve also been very strong, with the majority of suburbs recording double-digit value growth.

In Perth, 93.7% (374 out of 399) of markets recorded a capital gain of 10% or more over the year, with units in the coastal suburb of Waikiki recording an impressive 42.1% annual rise.

Brisbane saw 86.4% of house and unit suburbs rise by more than 10%, with the fastest rising markets clustered around the Brisbane - South and Logan - Beaudesert regions, while three-quarters of Adelaide markets recorded double-digit annual growth.

The same strength is also exhibited in these cities’ quarterly numbers.

Houses in Perth’s inner-city suburb of Daglish were the only market to record a decline in values across the city, falling -0.3% over the three months to February.

At the other end of the scale, one house market (Kwinana Town Centre) and four unit markets (Dudley Park, Waikiki, Baldivis, and Halls Head in Perth’s Mandurah and South West regions) have recorded phenomenal quarterly growth of more than 10%.

The lion's share of Adelaide markets also saw values rise over the quarter (99.3% for houses and 93.2% for units), while a few markets in Brisbane's more expensive inner city region including Hamilton (-5.2%) and Ascot (-2.8%), have seen values fall as affordability and borrowing constraints start to weigh more heavily on the market.

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Brisbane's top-performing markets for quarterly growth were concentrated in the more affordable Logan-Beaudesert, Ipswich, and Morton Bay regions.

Values rose fastest in the city's most affordable 25% of the market (3.8%), compared to the more expensive upper quartile (2.3%).

Hobart was on the other end of the spectrum, with three out of four markets declining in values over the quarter, while 56.1% recorded values lower than a year ago.

The weakness in the Hobart market over the past two years contrasts with the positive growth seen from 2017 to 2022.

Relatively loose supply levels and negative interstate migration, coupled with the city's relatively unaffordable price point relative to local incomes, have all likely contributed to falling values over the past two years.

The quarterly growth rate has also reflected a tentative uptick in growth in more expensive markets like Sydney and Melbourne, which had previously shown some frailty after the November rate hike.

Both cities saw their quarterly growth trend improve, from 0.0% in Sydney and -0.9% in Melbourne over the three months to January, to 0.6% and -0.6%, respectively, in February.

This resulted in a greater portion of house and unit markets on an upswing in both cities.

In Sydney, 55.1% of suburbs increased in value over the three months to January, which has lifted to 69.8% in the three months to February.

In Melbourne, 33.9% of suburbs rose in value over the three months to January, which lifted to 35.7% over the three months to February.

Sydney also recorded a broad-based rise in values throughout the year, with just 17 (2%) of the 867 markets analysed recording a decline in value and around half (49.7%) recording value increases above 10%.

Stronger value growth in early 2023 saw 87.0% of suburbs in Melbourne record positive annual growth.

While still relatively broad-based, the pace of growth seen across the country’s individual house and unit markets is increasingly diverse – a trend that seems set to continue in 2024.

40% of house and unit markets record double-digit rent rises

The same analysis found that 94.2% of the 4,030 house and unit markets analysed recorded an annual rent rise, while nearly 40% saw rental values rise by 10% or more.

After bottoming out in October at 8.1%, the annual trend in national rent values has seen an uptick in recent months, to 8.5% in February, due in part to a recent acceleration in capital city house rents and regional rents.

Over the past few years, rental growth has been skewed to capital city units, but as unit rent affordability has been eroded, some prospective tenants may be shifting towards house rentals, likely reforming larger households as a way of sharing the rental burden or to more affordable markets further afield.

Perth was by far the best-performing capital for annual rental growth, with all 245 house and 101 unit markets analysed recording increases over the year, while 85.8% (82.4% for houses and 94.1% for units) saw an annual rent rise of 10% or more.

Hobart sat at the opposite end of the scale, with just seven of the 39 house markets analysed seeing a rise in rents, while all 13 of the unit markets analysed saw a decline, ranging from -1.4% (Sorell) to -5.6% (Lenah Valley).

Portion of suburbs recording annual rise in rents

			Houses				Units
Region		Suburbs analysed	Annual increase #	Annual increase %		Suburbs analysed	Annual increase #	Annual increase %
Greater Sydney		530	528	99.6%		306	304	99.3%
Greater Melbourne		339	336	99.1%		241	241	100%
Greater Brisbane		279	275	98.6%		150	150	100%
Greater Adelaide		206	204	99.0%		62	62	100%
Greater Perth		245	245	100%		101	101	100%
Greater Hobart		39	7	17.9%		13
Greater Darwin		32	27	84.4%		15	15	100%
Canberra		74	25	33.8%		40	25	62.5%
Rest of NSW		400	355	88.8%		110	98	89.1%
Rest of Vic.		162	150	92.6%		40	40	100%
Rest of Qld		335	332	99.1%		133	133	100%
Rest of SA		35	35	100%		2	2	100%
Rest of WA		67	67	100%		13	13	100%
Rest of Tas.		43	21	48.8%		9	3	33.3%
Rest of NT		8	4	50.0%		1
Combined capitals		1,744	1,647	94.4%		928	898	96.8%
Combined regionals		1,050	964	91.8%		308	289	93.8%
National		2,794	2,611	93.5%		1,236	1,187	96.0%