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Unemployment to rise to over 4% - featured image

Unemployment to rise to over 4%

Employment increased +55,000 in October, taking employment in Australia a massive +419,000 higher over the past year to a record 14,173,500.
The October result was largely a result of part-time employment, however, some of which may have been driven by temporary hiring related to The Voice referendum (which would likely be unwound in November).
Still, the 3-month average employment growth has held up at a sprightly +44,000.


The number of unemployed persons increased over the month from a seasonally adjusted 519,900 to 547,800, taking the unemployment rate up from 3.55 per cent to 3.72 per cent, and it most likely be won't be too long before we're back above 4 per cent now.


The underutilisation rate ticked up slightly to 10 per cent, while monthly hours worked also continue to trend gently lower.


Economist Justin Fabo has pointed out that other leading indicators related to job advertisements and job applications are softening, as are wages expectations (with wages growth set to peak imminently at 4 per cent).
In fact there's very little prospect that jobs growth will keep pace with the extremely high pace of growth in Australia's working age headcount.
Overall, there's been some solid data this week in Australia, but markets haven't been much fazed, with bond yields down over the week in sympathy with softening US inflation data.


In other news, even more builders and developers are falling over, taking construction insolvencies for the financial year to date to above 1,000 already.
The decade high was hit last financial year at more than 2,200, reported the AFR.
About Pete is a Chartered Accountant, Chartered Secretary and has a Financial Planning Diploma. Using a long term approach to building businesses, investing in equities, & owning a portfolio he achieved financial independence at the age of 33. Visit his blog
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