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The “real” Australian unemployment rate is 18.9%

Australia’s real unemployment rate is higher thank you think – and that’s a concern. 

In September 2.498 million (18.9%) Australians were unemployed or under-employed.

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The Roy Morgan real unemployment figures are always substantially higher than current ABS estimate for August 2017 (5.6%)

  •  In September – marking two whole years (24 straight months) more than 2 million Australians have been looking for work or looking for more work;
  • 11,972,000 Australians were employed in September – an increase of 143,000 over the past year (this represents an average of 11,900 jobs added per month);
  • The increase in employment over the past year was driven by a large jump in part-time employment which rose 433,000 to 4,375,000 offsetting a decrease in full-time employment which fell 290,000 to 7,597,000 during the same period;

Roy Morgan Monthly Unemployment & Under-employment - September 2017 - 18.9%

Source: Roy Morgan Single Source October 2005 – September 2017. Average monthly interviews 4,000.

Gary Morgan, Executive Chairman, Roy Morgan Research, says the growth in part-time employment is obscuring the stagnation of Australian full-time employment:

“The Roy Morgan employment estimates have consistently shown the Australian economy is generating new jobs, however the increase in employment is heavily concentrated in part-time jobs rather than full-time – and that trend has continued. 

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“Over the past year a net 143,000 new jobs were created since September 2016 – however this increase consisted of 433,000 part-time jobs (about 37,000 per month) and a stagnation in full-time employment which fell 290,000 (about  24,000 per month) during the same period.

“These trends explain why 2.498 million Australians (18.9% of the workforce) are either unemployed – 1.202 million (9.1%) or under-employed – 1.296 million (9.8%). September marks two straight years with more than 2 million Australians looking for work or looking for more work.

“September also marked the fourth anniversary of the election of the Abbott/Turnbull Government and since September 2013 full-time employment has increased only 184,000 to 7,597,000 (growth of about 4,000 full-time jobs per month) whilst part-time employment is up a massive 618,000 to 4,375,000 (about 13,000 part-time jobs per month).

“Unfortunately the increasing problem of persistent and rising under-employment won’t be helped by the closure this month of Australia’s final automotive manufacturing factories with Holden and Toyota shutting their doors, and nor will employers be looking to put on more workers when they consider the rising cost of energy which is a direct result of energy policy mismanagement by both State and Federal Governments.”



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About

Michael is a director of Metropole Property Strategists who help their clients grow, protect and pass on their wealth through independent, unbiased property advice and advocacy. He's once again been voted Australia's leading property investment adviser and his opinions are regularly featured in the media. Visit Metropole.com.au


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