Here are my three tables of base case numbers regarding future housing demand by lifecycle segmentation.
Table 1 outlines my segmentation of the Australian population by lifecycle age groups.
Table 2 shows the size of the Australian population by lifecycle segment for June 2020 and what is estimated to happen in mid-2025.
The actual population count might be less in 2025 – due to current restrictions on overseas travel and hence net overseas migration – but the distribution of the population by age group in 2025 is unlikely to change that much from the current forecast.
Table 3 shows the annual population growth by lifecycle segment over the next five years the average household size by lifecycle segment (as of 2019) and an estimated annual need for new dwellings by each lifecycle group between 2020 and 2025.
Sadly, whilst some aren’t, most children are obviously housed with adults, so their numbers (as shown in table 2) are encompassed in the other lifecycle segments.
Again, the actual volumes might be lower – due to Covid again – by the annual housing demand distribution as shown in table 3 isn’t likely to change that much.
Putting Covid’s current impact aside – however, I do, think that assuming vaccines work etc., the present federal government will boost overseas migration to backfill any population intake shortfall experienced in 2020 to 2021 – there is an underlying need to build about 142,500 new dwellings across Australia each year between 2020 and 2025.
And over the next five years, much of Australia’s new housing demand is very likely to take place across three lifecycle segments being – retirees, families and first home buyers. Revisit table 3.
It is little wonder that HomeBuilder has hit the mark.
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