Key takeaways
Stopping overseas migration isn’t really a solution to the housing crisis.
In fact, doing such isn’t that smart. While it might lead to less congestion (over the short term), it will see us worse off economically.
Most (86%) of last year’s overseas migrants were between 15 and 44 years of age.
We need these young people to work, help pay taxes and keep our economy growing.
Building homes is restricted mainly by planning red (and green) tape, high taxation, government munificence, and not being able to easily build what the market wants and/or can afford.
Now that is off my chest - hopefully for the last time for a while - let me outline why stopping overseas migration isn’t really a solution.
In fact, doing such isn’t that smart. While it might lead to less congestion (over the short term), it will see us worse off economically.
I even contend that it could lead to higher interest rates over the medium and long term and overall lower levels of well-being.
Australia’s population grew by 651,000 during calendar 2023, of which 547,250 or 84% came from overseas.
There are 27 million people currently living down under.
Our fertility rate is also at record lows at 1.58.
A population replacement rate is 2.1.
That means that each resident female gives birth to 2.1 children.
By doing such the population will remain stable.
But let’s pause here for a jiffy and unpack the current population surge a bit.
Last year’s net overseas intake just refilled the hole left by Covid restrictions.
Most of the intake were tertiary students.
When looking at the ten-year trend, net overseas migration averages just 182,250 and it has been on a downward trend in recent years.
We just need to chill peeps!
Last year’s surge will ease and maybe dangerously so.
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It was back in 1975 when Australians were having enough babies to keep the population steady.
So, immigration is vital if we are to keep our population steady, let alone grow.
This table holds the most telling indicators
It shows that some 43% of our existing population are aged over 45 years, whilst just 4% of last year’s overseas migrants were.
Moreover, most (86%) of last year’s overseas migrants were between 15 and 44 years of age.
We need these young people to work, help pay taxes and keep our economy growing.
These new heads help us keep up our lifestyle.
Economic expansion can only happen by three means:
- Debt,
- Improving productivity, or
- By expanding market size.
- We already have way too much debt
- AI might help with our lapsing productivity, but substantial workforce and financial upheaval will follow.
- In the meantime, expanding our market size by attracting young immigrants is essential.
We need more people here to help us do this stuff and to help us pay.
Given the current geopolitical drift, starting to do certain things at home might be wise and to do these things quickly.
Given this possible scenario, I think we should be looking to increase our annual overseas intake, not let it drift downwards.
But we must attract the people we need and expel those that break our laws or don’t align with our values.
In conclusion, we must not shut down our borders but embrace immigration to ensure economic stability and growth.
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