Read my lips – no RBA rate rise any time soon.
Despite what the many financial journalists, economists, market analysts, and various click baiters have said over the last few weeks today Reserve Bank governor Philip Lowe made his position very clear - “the latest data and forecasts do not warrant an increase in the cash rate in 2022”.
Lowe explained that Australia will not be sucked into a “perfect storm” of global inflationary pressures, as minutes from the latest RBA board meeting revealed that a rate rise in 2024 remained the “central scenario”.
“The economy and inflation would have to turn out very differently from our central scenario for the board to consider an increase in interest rates next year,” he said.
Dr. Andrew Wilson commented:
Despite recent rampant speculation that official interest rates were set to rise earlier than has been expected, the Reserve Bank has confirmed – yet again, that rates will not rise until 2024.
In the minutes of the November Board meeting, the RBA stated again that it would not raise official interest rates until inflation was between 2 and 3 percent on a sustainable basis.
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The Bank's current central prediction is that underlying inflation will not reach the mid-point of the target range until the end of 2023.
For inflation to be sustained within the target range, the Bank stated:
“The labour market will need to be tight enough to generate materially higher wages growth than at the time of the meeting”
The Bank pronounced clearly in its latest minutes that “Given the latest data and forecasts, the central scenario for the economy continued to be consistent with the cash rate remaining at its current level until 2024”
Perhaps that will dampen hysterical predictions of rate rises - the latest ABS September quarter wages data however will likely further confirm the RBA’s clear and consistent position on interest rates – no rise until 2024.