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Immigration Shock? The Truth Behind Australia’s Latest Population Surge | Property Insiders

key takeaways

Key takeaways

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has already delivered three cuts this year, but another cut in September is unlikely.

Australia’s economy grew 0.6% in the June quarter, with household consumption up 0.9% q/q, showing strong private demand.

Rising inflation, solid GDP growth, and strong consumption make further cuts less urgent.

ANZ Bank still forecasts a November Cup Day rate cut but warns stronger economic data could mean no more cuts at all from here.

Dwelling approvals: Fell 8.2% in July, driven by a sharp 22.3% drop in apartments/units, while private houses edged up 1.1%.

Limited new supply may further tighten the housing market and add upward pressure on prices and rents.

You’ve probably heard the headlines – immigration is surging, our cities are bursting, and no one can find a place to live.

This has led to demonstrations, heated debates, and plenty of finger-pointing.

But when we strip away the emotions, the numbers tell a different story.

The latest figures from the ABS suggest that Australia's population grew by 1.6%  in the 12 months to March 2025 and was 27.5 million, that's 423,400 more than the same time in 2024.

We saw 315,900 people added to our population from overseas migration in the year to March 2025. This compares with 493,800 people in the previous 12 months.

In this week's Property Insiders chat, Dr Andrew Wilson and I discuss these stats as well as the latest jobless figures and how our auction markets are performing.

Annual population change as migration eases

Watch this week's Property Insider video as Dr Andrew Wilson and I discuss the latest ABS statistics:

  • Australia’s population was 27,536,874 people at 31 March 2025.
  • The quarterly growth was 144,238 people (0.5%).
  • The annual growth was 423,400 people (1.6%).
  • Annual natural increase was 107,400 and net overseas migration was 315,900 which decreased by 177,900 (36.0%) people since the previous year.

Annual Population Change At 31 March 2025

Source: ABS

The following chart shows how the recent post-COVID migration surge is easing.

Abs Annual Net Migration

New South Wales and Victoria are getting the bulk of overseas immigrants.

Nsw Tops Net Overseas Migration

As usual, Queensland has been benefiting from the bulk of interstate migration.

Qld Tops Net Interstate Migration

Jobless rate steady

Watch this week's Property Insider Chat as Dr. Andrew Wilson explains how the unemployment figures for August remain steady at 4.2%.

This is a very low rate by historic standards, and it shows the strength of our economy.

Moving forward, lower interest rates are likely to support a stronger jobs market.

  • There were 202,468 jobs advertised online in August 2025, which fell -4.2% over the month, down -12.2% over the year and the fewest jobs advertised online since January 2021.
  • The number of jobs advertised online is now aroundone thrid lower than it was at the peak however, they remain well above pre-pandemic volumes.

Abs National Unemployment Seasonally Adjusted

 

Sean Crick, ABS head of labour statistics, said:

‘Employment fell by 5,000 people and the number of unemployed fell by 1,000 people in August.

‘This meant that the unemployment rate remained steady at 4.2 per cent whilst the participation rate fell by 0.1 percentage points to 66.8 per cent.’

The employment-to-population ratio fell by 0.1 percentage points to 64.0 per cent.

A fall in full-time employment (-41,000 people) drove the overall drop in employment numbers. Meanwhile, part-time employment saw a 36,000 person rise.

Females who were employed full-time went down 30,000 people, and males in full-time employment was down by 11,000.

There was a rise in part-time employment for both females and males, up 18,000 and 17,000 respectively.

‘Hours worked fell 0.4 per cent in August, supported by less people working full-time hours this month,’ Mr Crick said.

However, the employment participation rate remains at a near-record high of 66.8%

Histrorically High Participation Rate

As you can see from the chart below, unemployment figures varied by state with WA having the lowest jobless rate at 3.8%.

Seasonally Adjusted Jobless Rate

Super Saturday delivers more strong auction results

The first Super Saturday of spring has delivered more strong auction clearance rates, despite the usual surge in pre-Grand Final listings providing buyers with more choices and sellers with more competition.

The national weekend auction market reported an average clearance rate of 72.3% over the past week, which was higher than the 71.1% reported over the previous week and again well ahead of the 65.4% reported over the same week last year.

Auction activity will decline next week due, as usual, due to the distractions of the football Grand Finals.

Auction Results 20 September

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About Michael Yardney Michael is the founder of Metropole Property Strategists who help their clients grow, protect and pass on their wealth through independent, unbiased property advice and advocacy. He's once again been voted Australia's leading property investment adviser and one of Australia's 50 most influential Thought Leaders. His opinions are regularly featured in the media.
204 comments

Did you know there are Circa 400,000 people unemployed, but about twice that many on the dole? The details make an insightful story.

1 reply

The biggest problem is people can’t borrow enough money. The affordability buffer desperately needs to be reduced to 2%. The interest rates need to come down another 0.5% or more, not only for construction of homes but for the growth of businesse ...Read full version

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"Big Bank Bombshell: Don’t Count on More Interest Rate Cuts | Property Insiders" Bad news or good news?...depends who you are really Most real estate agents are happy with the current environment and are doing very well, thank you. Mortgage holder ...Read full version

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