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Not all land is created equal – so buy in the inner suburbs

Fact is: not all land is created equal.

Some suburbs will be more popular than others, some areas will have more scarcity than others and over time some land will increase in value more than others.

Of course these are property investors should target, as that’s where they’ll get above average capital growth.

So where does property increase most in value? So where does property increase most in value?

For as long as I’ve been investing the argument has been raging: regional Australia vs capital cities; or inner suburbs vs outer suburbs.

There are always exceptions.

Some better performing regional areas have exhibited more capital growth than some underperforming capital city suburbs and some high growth outer suburbs have grown faster than some demographically challenged inner suburbs.

But overall for strong, stable long-term growth that outperforms the averages the inner and middle ring suburbs of our capital cities are the place to invest.

Now this wasn’t always the case

In an article in API Magazine property Researcher John Lindeman explained that around the time of Federation (at the turn of the 20th century) the price of country property was equal to and in some cases greater than the cost of similar properties in the city. 

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But over time this has slowly changed as we have moved from an agrarian society to an industrialized nation.

After the Second World War the arrival of a large number of overseas migrants who preferred to live in cities, in particular Sydney and Melbourne, led to a larger increase in value of capital city properties over regional properties.

I guess it’s much the same today; the majority of migrants want to live in our capital cities where the jobs are.

And this trend is unlikely to change in the foreseeable future with few significant decentralization initiatives in the pipeline.

This means investors seeking long-term capital growth should only be investing in our larger capital cities.

Inner or outer suburbs?

About 10 years ago I read a study from Macquarie Bank showing that (in general) properties closer to the CBD and closer to water increased in value faster than those further from the CBD and further from water.

Inner or outer suburbs?And this general trend has again been confirmed by a paper by the Australian Housing and Urban Research Institute which found that both in percentage terms and in absolute terms over the long haul suburbs located reasonably close to the CBD, where demand is high, close to employment and where the most people want to live and where there is no land available for release, outperformed the outer suburbs.

The paper explained:

“Housing markets, which were once relatively egalitarian cross Australian cities, have become polarised”

“The homes affordable to present (and future) lower moderate income home buyers are now confined to the outer suburbs and will only increase in value at slower rates compared to housing in the more expensive inner and middle suburbs – effectively trapping poorer households on the edges of our cities.”

Now this brings up a whole raft of social arguments…

The process of gentrification and rising prices has locked a generation of younger people out of inner city housing and it is likely that the gap will only widen over the years.

I’ll leave discussion of the remedy for this to the politicians and town planners, but the conclusion for property investors is that if you want to own the type of property that will outperform the averages, the inner and middle ring suburbs are the place to be.

The facts:

Using Melbourne as an example an AHURI study presents what they call a “bid rent curve” that shows the variations in property prices and rents as one moves further away from the CBD.

As you can see below, places where rents or prices are greatest reflect the most desirable locations, often being closest to the CBD (where amenity and employment opportunities are better and transport costs lower), and decline the greater the distance from the CBD.

AHURI study


Source: www.ahuri.edu.au/

Digging deeper the paper compares the bid rent curves for five Melbourne corridors  – western, northern, eastern, south-eastern and southern.

This showed that in 1981 the price curve was flat in all five corridors.

In other words there was little difference in house prices as distance from the CBD increased.

However by 2008 that had changed, with all five corridors showing much higher house prices in inner and middle ring suburbs and lower home values out towards the fringe.

The graph below clearly shows this trend for the eastern corridor of Melbourne suburbs:

Little difference in house prices as distance from the CBD increased.

 

But it’s the same all over the world

Go to any major city in the world – London, Paris, Vienna, Los Angeles – and you’ll find that the wealthy people tend to live within 10 – 15 minutes drive from the CBD or near the water.

Why is this so?

The cynics would say because they can afford to. And in part that’s true.

In general the more established suburbs with better infrastructure, shopping and amenities tend to be close to the CBD and the water and that’s where the wealthy want to and can afford to live.

And they’re prepared to pay a premium to live there.

Gentrification

One of the significant changes to occur in Australian cities over the last 50 years and which has pushed up inner and middle ring suburb property values is gentrification.Gentrification

Interestingly this wasn’t caused by deliberate planning policy, but resulted from a set of demographic changes that have occurred in most major capital cities around thee world.

When I was young (in the 1950s and 60’s) the inner suburbs of Melbourne and Sydney (say as 5 km from the CBD) were relatively dense mixed-use working class suburbs with a mixture of small terrace houses, pubs and factories.

Accommodation in these suburbs was relatively cheap and attracted migrants who brought with them their culture including delicatessens, pizza shops and cafes.

Over the years manufacturing moved from these inner suburbs to the outer suburbs and many of the migrants and inner city blue-collar workers also relocated to the sSmart phoneuburbs where they could buy a larger home with a sizeable front and back yard.

The exodus of industry, migrants and many workers made way for gentrification of our inner suburbs where initially house prices and rents were cheaper than in the suburbs.

Later, our changing demographics with declining household size, in part because we we’re getting married later and having fewer children, meant that small inner suburban dwellings or apartments provided ideal accommodation for the expanding cohort of professionals who worked in or close to the CBD.

Gentrifiers were initially drawn to these inner suburbs by the diversity of jobs, educational opportunities and lifestyle and this trend continues today as more and more Australians are swapping their back yard for balconies.

The Bottom Line:

No doubt the argument will continue to rage.No doubt the argument will continue to rage.

Some will continue to recommend investment in the outer suburbs because they’re cheaper, more affordable and the yields are a little higher.

And all this is true.

But remember over the longer term, rents tend to grow more substantially in landlocked suburbs where demand is the strongest and capital values increase more.

In my mind there is no question that the best locations to invest for long term capital growth are the inner suburbs of our major capital cities where the jobs are, where  most people want to live and where there is no land available for release.



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Michael is a director of Metropole Property Strategists who help their clients grow, protect and pass on their wealth through independent, unbiased property advice and advocacy. He's once again been voted Australia's leading property investment adviser and his opinions are regularly featured in the media. Visit Metropole.com.au


'Not all land is created equal – so buy in the inner suburbs' have 20 comments

  1. Avatar for Property Update

    February 8, 2015 @ 8:41 am Chris

    Do you consider Parramatta a major city C B D or “inner suburb” of Sydney?

    Reply

    • Avatar for Property Update

      February 8, 2015 @ 9:35 am Michael Yardney

      Chris
      Parramatta is a major suburban hub and while it was performed reasonably well, it is too far out from the major CBD to fit in my criteria of a good investment location

      Reply

  2. Avatar for Property Update

    March 16, 2015 @ 6:05 pm realestateforprofit

    Great Info !!!!!!. Thank you for sharing it.

    Reply

  3. Avatar for Property Update

    April 13, 2015 @ 4:19 pm Steven Steven

    Do you consider the Sydney suburb of Ryde as a good investment location? In terms of house prices, they have performed exceptionally well in the past 12 months.

    Reply

    • Avatar for Property Update

      April 13, 2015 @ 4:25 pm Michael Yardney

      Steven
      While Ryde has performed well, it’s not on our radar as a suburb to invest at present – it doesn’t have the growth drivers that I look for in the long term.

      In my opinion there are better suburbs to invest in Sydney

      Reply

  4. Avatar for Property Update

    December 17, 2015 @ 2:58 pm liz

    Is there anywhere in Melbourne you would consider a good investment if wanting to buy land and build?

    Reply

    • Avatar for Property Update

      December 17, 2015 @ 3:01 pm Michael Yardney

      Liz
      It depends what you want to build – if it is for investment there are a number of great inner eastern and south eastern suburbs where I would (and in fact am) building townhouse developments to keep as long term investments. I would definitely avoid the outer suburbs

      Reply

  5. Avatar for Property Update

    March 28, 2016 @ 11:15 pm Fran

    Do you believe that Sydney is at its peak in the cycle and Brisbane is the right place to invest?

    Reply

    • Avatar for Property Update

      March 29, 2016 @ 1:29 pm Michael Yardney

      Fran- sure the Sydney property market is taking a breather, but I believe the market will be around 5% higher at the end of the year then it is today, so there are some good opportunities still in the right spots in Sydney.

      I believe Brisbane will perform a little bit better than Sydney this year, but there will be lots of places not to invest in Brisbane.

      I guess what I’m getting at is that you gotta dig much deeper than just Melbourne Sydney or Brisbane. You have to choose the right location in the big capital cities, and then the right property in that location. Correct property selection will be vital this year

      Reply

  6. Avatar for Property Update

    June 3, 2016 @ 3:33 pm Emilia Widjaja

    Is Blackburn North in Victoria a good place to invest?

    Reply

    • Avatar for Property Update

      June 3, 2016 @ 9:52 pm Michael Yardney

      Emilia
      While there is some very nice parts of Blackburn North, if you’ve been following my blogs you’ll know that I suggest less than 1% of properties currently on the market are investment-grade.

      If I had my choice (and I do) I would be putting my money into other suburbs rather than Blackburn North

      Reply

  7. Avatar for Property Update

    July 3, 2016 @ 10:42 pm Mike

    What’s you opinion about Footscray and Newport suburbs in Melbourne for investment?

    Reply

    • Avatar for Property Update

      July 4, 2016 @ 6:55 am Michael Yardney

      Mike
      While this is a common question, a better question would be how do you chose an “investment grade suburb – watch out – I’ve got a video blog on this coming out this week.
      I would avoide Footscray and only invest in parts of Newport – but having said that less than 2% of proeprties on the market are investment grade – so correct property selection will be critical

      Reply

  8. Avatar for Property Update

    August 1, 2016 @ 11:48 pm Tai

    Hi Michale,

    Great article with great info. I am looking to invest in Tarneit, a south-western suburb of Melbourne, I would love to hear what you think of this idea. Thanks.

    Reply

    • Avatar for Property Update

      August 2, 2016 @ 1:47 am Michael Yardney

      Tai
      Thanks for your question.
      If you’ve been following my blogs you’d realise that Tarneit is NOT an investment grade suburb and I would steer clear of it. It has few growth drivers, has always underperformed and I see no reason why anyone would invest there

      Reply

  9. Avatar for Property Update

    August 30, 2016 @ 5:39 pm Cam

    Hi Michael,
    Great article. I am a 29 year old looking to invest in property in VIC, with a budget of $400k.
    I’m currently looking into Werribee / Hoppers Crossing as an investment opportunity due to its current affordability ($350-$400k for a 3 bedroom house on 400+ sqm), easy access to transport (train stations & highway) and proximity to both airports. The land component is really what interests me and thinking about mid-long term capital growth (10-15 years).
    Given that my budget is $400k and I will initially move into the property, it seems a viable option over a 2 bedroom flat for example, 10-15kms out of Melbourne, given that the apartment market risks oversupply.
    I’d love to hear your thoughts.

    Reply

  10. Avatar for Property Update

    April 6, 2017 @ 10:38 am Dianna

    Hi Michael – would you comment on CAM’s concerns above? I am also in the same position and would love to hear your comments on investing in Hoppers Crossing.

    Reply

    • Avatar for Property Update

      April 6, 2017 @ 12:02 pm Michael Yardney

      Dianna
      Hoppers Crossing has never been on my right radar as an investment grade location – just because it’s affordable doesn’t mean you should buy there.

      The question of course is, affordable for whom?

      The outer suburbs have proven in the long-term to be under performers and if you start off your investment journey there, you will just prove the point that I say often in my blogs – you are likely to become another one of the statistics – 50% of those who get into property investment sell up in the first five years, and 92% of those investors who do remain in the market never get past their second property.

      To become a successful property investor you need to do things differently to the way the average investor udoes things otherwise you’ll get the same results as they do

      Reply

      • Avatar for Property Update

        November 15, 2017 @ 12:12 pm Jay

        Hi Michael – I understand your philosophy in investing in areas that have proven growth trends which tend to be inner east. In regards to hoppers crossing as you may know the property values have roared there. A house back in 2015 is worth substantially more now in 2017. Yet you have said HC is not your ideal suburb, has your opinion changed on this?

        Reply

        • Avatar for Property Update

          November 15, 2017 @ 9:36 pm Michael Yardney

          No Jay it hasn’t – the rising proeprty market in Victoria has lifted most locations – a rising tide lifts all ships.
          The problem is as prices rise affordability worsens in locations like Hoppers Crossing as in general wages in this type of location is hardly rising.
          I’m looking for areas with a future more than areas with a past – I want to buy in suburbs where wages go up significantly more than the state average, because that’s where people will be able to buy houses, not becuase they are cheap, but becuase locals will have higher disposable income

          Reply


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