Is Australian migration finally recovering?
Well, the overseas arrivals and departures data for August show a continued return of net migration, though student arrivals in July and August remain well below pre-pandemic.
In fact, preliminary data for September shows ongoing recovery in total arrivals and departures alongside continued normalisation of travel patterns.
But cross-border movements remained well below pre-pandemic levels.
Total arrivals were 39% below September 2019, while total departures were 42% below.
Permanent and long-term arrivals show continued normalisation
Net permanent and long-term arrivals show continued normalisation in net migration even as outbound departures remain little above pre-pandemic levels.
Mr Taylor Nugent, Markets Economist at NAB commented:
"Net permanent and long-term arrivals, which gives a more timely signal of net migration, was 20k in August, above its pre-pandemic norm for the month (August 2019 net long-term and permanent arrivals were 18k, 2018 was 12k).
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Permanent and long-term departures remained elevated relative to pre-pandemic levels in August, but higher arrivals helped support net long-term arrivals."
Student arrivals have picked up
Student arrivals have picked up sharply after running near zero for the border closure period.
Mr Nugent said:
"Despite the pick-up, student arrivals remained well below their pre-pandemic levels in August.
Forty-one thousand students arrived in August, which is 26% below pre-COVID August 2019 levels.
Arrivals relative to prepandemic were stronger in August than in July, likely reflecting some catch-up after delays to visa processing."
