Australian housing market update [CoreLogic’s video] | March 2025

Key takeaways

Despite values being relatively steady in the month of January, downwardly revised performance through November and December
saw national home values down -0.3% over the rolling quarter.

Annual growth in home values has slowed consistently. The annual value change over the year to January 2025 is less than half the pace of growth seen over the year to January 2024 (9.3%)

The affordable end of the market dominated growth over the past year. Nationally, lower quartile values were up 9.4% over the year compared to a 1.5% rise seen in the more expensive upper quartile.

In February 2025, CoreLogic's National Home Value Index saw a 0.3% rise, breaking a 3-month downturn.

Most capital cities, except Darwin and regional Victoria, experienced value increases; Melbourne and Hobart led with a 0.4% jump.

Notable Capital City Changes

• Sydney: A 0.3% rise after 4 months of declines, driven by upper quartile values up 0.4%.
• Melbourne: Ended a 10-month decline with values up 0.4%, while units rose 0.2%.
• Brisbane: Growth continued for 25 months, but February's 0.2% rise was modest, largely from unit value increases.
• Adelaide: Notched a 0.3% gain, marking the 23rd straight month of growth, though momentum appears to be slowing.
• Perth: Values are starting to show cracks, with a 0.3% rise over three months.
• Hobart: Home values rose 0.4% monthly, but remains down 11.9% from the March 2022 peak.
• Darwin: Unique in recording a 0.1% decline, though quarterly trends show 0.7% growth.

Regional housing markets outperformed capital cities with a 0.4% monthly increase versus a 0.3% rise in capitals.

Auction clearance rates improved, reflecting better market activity.

Change in house prices, 12 months to February 2025:

Source: CoreLogic

Rolling quarterly change in values, dwellings (Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane, Adelaide):

Source: CoreLogic

National rents rose 0.6% in February, the strongest since May last year, but annual growth slowed to 4.1%, the slowest since March 2021.

This trend indicates that seasonal factors may be driving short-term gains amidst a longer-term slowdown.

Despite signs of recovery, growth trends vary across regions, with lower mortgage rates helping borrowing capacity but overall serviceability remaining constrained.

Experts project up to three more rate cuts this year, potentially stabilizing the cash rate around 3.35%.

Market sentiment and demand could shift with continued economic adjustments, though a moderation in overseas migration might impact future rental and purchasing demands.

Tips: As we move forward, these trends suggest a need for both buyers and sellers to remain vigilant and adaptable in response to an evolving housing landscape. Stay tuned for more detailed insights as we explore the dynamics of individual capital city markets in the coming weeks.

About Tim Lawless Tim heads up the Core Logic RP Data research and analytics team, analysing real estate markets, demographics and economic trends across Australia. Visit www.corelogic.com.au