The latest Corelogic Rental Market Report

Key takeaways

National rents rose by 0.2% in October, a slight improvement from previous months, though still well below the average October rise of 0.7% seen in the past three years. Annual rental growth has slowed to 5.8%, marking the smallest annual increase since April 2021.

With rents a significant component in the CPI calculation, the slowdown in rental growth is a positive signal for inflation, as CPI-rent data has dropped to 6.7% in Q3 2024 from a high of 7.8% in Q1.

The easing in rental demand correlates with a slowdown in net overseas migration and an increase in average household sizes as the effects of the pandemic ‘shrink’ trend wear off.

National rents rose by 0.2% in October, a subtle bounce back from the weaker growth over the previous three months, but less than a third of the 0.7% monthly rise recorded in October of the past three years.

Annual rental growth has dropped to 5.8%, the smallest annual rise in the national rental index since the 12 months ending April 2021.

The easing in rental growth is good news for inflation, with rents comprising one of the largest weights within the CPI ‘basket.’

The annual change in the rental component of CPI has already started to trend lower, falling to 6.7% in the September quarter, down from a recent high of 7.8% in Q1 this year.

Commonwealth Rental Assistance (CRA) has likely dragged on rent growth, but the impact for the September quarter would have been marginal, with the increase to CRA kicking in for late September only.

Weaker rental trends in the unit sector have slowed rental growth, with rents slipping across the unit markets of Sydney (-0.6%), Melbourne (-0.4%), Brisbane (-0.3%), Hobart (-0.6%) and Canberra (-1.5%) over the three months ending October 24.

Softening rental conditions are likely symptoms of slowing net overseas migration, which peaked through the first quarter of 2023, as well as changes in household formation as the average household size gradually increases following the pandemic ‘shrink’.

As rental growth eases, gross rental yields are once again under some downward pressure.

The gross yield for all capital city dwellings was 3.47% in October, down from a recent high of 3.52% in May and a pre-pandemic decade average of 3.9%.

Investing in housing remains popular despite the diminishing yield profile.

Holding costs are likely to have risen substantially for many investors, given variable mortgage rates are up around 3.4 percentage points from the pandemic lows and maintenance costs have risen in line with higher building and labour prices.

Despite this, we are still seeing investors leading the upswing in mortgage-related activity with the value of lending up 34.2% in the past year, more than double the increase in owner-occupier lending at 16.8%.

About Tim Lawless Tim heads up the Core Logic RP Data research and analytics team, analysing real estate markets, demographics and economic trends across Australia. Visit www.corelogic.com.au