Jobs figures slowly softening

The labour force figures came in soft for September, with employment up only very modestly, by +6,700.

This did come off the back of some volatile numbers in recent months - seasonal adjustments have been a bit thrown off by shifts in school holidays - so it's a bit easier to look at a 3-month average.

Overall, the quarterly gain in employment slowed to +23,000 per month, which is all the way back down to where things were tracking earlier in the year, and now a long way behind the speed of population growth (more on this in a moment).

The Aussie dollar fell on the softer-than-expected report, largely because the number of reported full-time employed dropped by -40,000.

Full-time employment is now -53,000 lower over the past three months, which is an obvious indicator that conditions are softening.

Unsurprisingly, hours worked are also in decline.

Unusually, there was a sharp monthly drop in the participation rate, from record highs in August at 67 per cent to 66.7 per cent in September.

Source: ABS

For now, then, the unemployment rate remains steadfastly low at 3.6 per cent.

Similarly, the recent uptrend in underemployment also saw a temporary blip.

The wrap...

Overall, this was a softer-than-expected report which tends to suggest the economy is cooling.

Separately, ASIC reported the business insolvencies figures for the September quarter, which saw business failures rising to the highest level since, 2015 (and construction insolvencies continuing to soar).

Looking ahead, the economy is no longer strong enough to create enough jobs to fulfil the extremely high rate of population growth, and it's more or less inevitable that the unemployment and underemployment rates will trend higher.

The unemployment rate remains extremely low in the powerhouse New South Wales economy, at just 3.3 per cent.

About Pete Wargent Pete is a Chartered Accountant, Chartered Secretary and has a Financial Planning Diploma. Using a long term approach to building businesses, investing in equities, & owning a portfolio he achieved financial independence at the age of 33. Visit his blog