How immigration drives Australia’s population growth

Key takeaways

Population projections indicate steady growth, reaching approximately 35 million people by 2048, with 395,000 people added per annum from overseas immigration.

Immigrants enrich Australia's cultural landscape, enhancing social cohesion and broadening Australians' understanding of the world. We want the right type of migrant, not just anyone.

Skilled immigrants help Australia remain competitive on the global stage, drive innovation and maintain its status as a leading economy.

My chart this week illustrates Australia's population projections over the next 25 years.

I have used the medium projection series, and this is founded on the population data and trends as at financial 2022. 

It is the most up-to-date data and was released about a month ago.

The projections are divided into several scenarios, showing both the impact of overseas immigration and a scenario with zero net overseas migration.

Key observations from the chart:

1. Population growth with overseas immigration

The blue bars represent the medium series population projections, which include the expected contribution from overseas immigration.

The projections indicate steady growth, reaching approximately 35 million by 2048.

The text notes that in the next 5 years, this figure is even higher at 395,000 people per annum, with 88,500 from natural increase alone.

Looking further, over the next decade, Australia is expected to add 359,000 people annually, of which 65,000 would be from natural increase without overseas immigration.

2. Population growth without overseas immigration

The black line shows the population trajectory with zero net overseas migration.

Without immigration, Australia's population growth is significantly slower, indicating the critical role of immigration in driving population increases.

3. Long-term Projections

A generational outlook suggests a yearly population increase close to 300,000, but reflecting a potentially aging local populace, without any immigration, Australia would only grow by 11,000 or 270,000 people over the next 25 years.

4. Importance of Immigration

The contrasting trajectories highlighted by the black line and blue bars underscore the importance of immigration to Australia’s demographic future.

The population projections clearly show that sustained immigration is crucial for maintaining robust population growth.

This visual data reinforces the narrative that immigration is a key driver of population growth in Australia and will continue to play a significant role in shaping the country's demographic landscape over the coming decades.

Five reasons why immigration is important

For me, immigration is important to Australia for several reasons, contributing to various aspects of the country's growth and development.

Here are five key reasons:

1. Economic growth

Immigrants contribute significantly to the economy by filling skill gaps, starting businesses, and boosting consumer demand.

They bring diverse talents and experiences that enhance productivity and innovation, driving overall economic prosperity.

2. Population sustainability

Australia's natural birth rate is relatively low, and without immigration – as noted above - the population growth would stagnate and maybe even decline over the long term.

Immigrants help maintain a balanced demographic structure, ensuring a steady increase in population to support future development.

3. Labour market needs

Many industries in Australia, such as healthcare, technology, and construction, face labour shortages.

Immigration provides a solution by supplying the necessary workforce to meet the demands of these sectors, ensuring continued growth and efficiency.

4. Cultural diversity

Immigrants enrich Australia's cultural landscape, bringing a variety of traditions, cuisines, and perspectives.

This diversity fosters a more vibrant, inclusive society, enhancing social cohesion and broadening Australians' understanding of the world.

We want the right type of migrant, not just anyone.

They want to come here – see the map - below - we just need to set the rules and exercise the rule of law.

5. Global competitiveness

Attracting skilled immigrants helps Australia remain competitive on the global stage.

By bringing in top talent from around the world, Australia can strengthen its position in international markets, drive innovation, and maintain its status as a leading economy.

It also gives a geopolitical grunt, including a perception of heft.

Perception is reality.

My map illustrates global millionaire migrations, highlighting the inflow and outflow of high-net-worth individuals in 2023.

Australia leads with a net gain of 5,200 millionaires, reclaiming its top position for net arrivals.

The USA (+2,100), UAE (+4,500), and Singapore (+3,200) also attract significant numbers.

In contrast, China (-13,500) and India (-6,500) see substantial outflows, alongside the UK (-3,200) and Russia (-3,000).

This migration pattern underscores the movement of wealth towards stable, economically prosperous regions while reflecting socio-political and economic challenges in countries experiencing high outflows.

About Michael Matusik Michael is director of independent property advisory Matusik Property Insights. He is independent, perceptive and to the point; has helped over 550 new residential developments come to fruition and writes his insightful Matusik Missive