Key takeaways
Consumer Confidence is now 5.7 points above the same week a year ago, August 7-13, 2023 (78.2), and is now 3.1 points above the 2024 weekly average of 81.8.
Now nearly a quarter of Australians, 24% (up 3ppts), say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year (the highest figure for this indicator for nearly two years since November 2022) compared to 47% (down 4ppts) that say their families are ‘worse off’ (the lowest figure for this indicator for 18 months since February 2023).
Net sentiment regarding the Australian economy in the longer term was virtually unchanged this week with only 10% (unchanged) of Australians expecting ‘good times’ for the economy over the next five years compared to nearly a fifth, 19% (down 1ppt), expecting ‘bad times’.
I keep careful track of consumer confidence because it's a good indicator of what's ahead for our economy and property markets.
And the latest ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence report shows it increased 2.6pts to 83.9 this week after the Reserve Bank of Australia left interest rates unchanged.
However, despite the improvement, looking longer-term the index has now spent a record 80 straight weeks below the mark of 85.
Consumer Confidence is now 5.7 points above the same week a year ago, August 7-13, 2023 (78.2), and is now 3.1 points above the 2024 weekly average of 81.8.
The driver of the week’s increase was increasing confidence about personal finances – especially as it relates to comparisons to a year ago which recorded its best net result for over 18 months since January 2023 including the highest proportion of Australians saying they are ‘better off’ financially than a year ago since November 2022.
Consumer confidence increasing in most states
A look at Consumer Confidence by State shows the index increasing in most States including Victoria, Queensland, Western Australia and South Australia, but down slightly in New South Wales
ANZ Economist, Madeline Dunk, commented:
"ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence rose 2.6pts last week, pushing the four-week moving average to a six-month high of 83.2pts.
All of the subindices improved, but there was a particularly big jump in household’s confidence in their current financial conditions.
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The subindex lifted 7.1pts, recording its largest weekly rise since late last year.
This takes the four-week moving average to its highest level since March 2023.
The rise may be linked to the RBA’s decision to keep rates on hold last week.
It is also possible that households are starting to feel the positive impact of the Stage 3 tax cuts on their finances.
Notably, the four-week moving average for the ‘time to buy a major household item’ subindex recorded its second highest reading since February 2023."
Here's what the latest survey of consumer confidence found:
- Now nearly a quarter of Australians, 24% (up 3ppts), say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year (the highest figure for this indicator for nearly two years since November 2022) compared to 47% (down 4ppts) that say their families are ‘worse off’ (the lowest figure for this indicator for 18 months since February 2023).
Future financial conditions
- Views on personal finances over the next year have improved this week with nearly a third of respondents, 32% (up 2ppts) of Australians expecting their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year while a third, 33% (down 1ppt), are expecting to be ‘worse off’.
Short-term economic confidence
- Fewer than one in ten Australians, 9% (up 1ppt) expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next twelve months compared to over a third, 34% (unchanged), that expect ‘bad times’.
Medium-term economic confidence
- Net sentiment regarding the Australian economy in the longer term was virtually unchanged this week with only 10% (unchanged) of Australians expecting ‘good times’ for the economy over the next five years compared to nearly a fifth, 19% (down 1ppt), expecting ‘bad times’.
Time to buy a major household item
- Buying intentions were also virtually unchanged this week with just nearly a quarter of Australians, 24% (up 2ppts) saying now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items compared to a large plurality of 47% (up 1ppt) that say now is a ‘bad time to buy’ major household items.
